October 10, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-10

Fantasy hockey ramblings recapping a jam-packed Thursday night of NHL action…

 

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Oh My Gosh… the first Thursday night of hockey. Such a jam-packed night. I must have caught bits of 8 different games. What fun. These ramblings are loaded so grab a cup of coffee and strap in.

 

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The Canadiens should feel really fortunate to escape last night's game with a tie. They played a terrible first period at one point getting outshot 14-0. It took until a late power play to get their first shot on goal. At the end of the period the shot differential was 15-2 and the scoreboard read Washingon 1 – Montreal 0. That's two games in a row where the Canadiens got off to a poor start. One more and we can call it a trend.

 

There were some positives to take away here. The Canadiens did pick things up as the game went along, including making a great push in the third period to tie things up.

 

They also did a good job shutting down the Capitals' vaunted power play, which went 0/5. It's not hard to tell what the Caps want to do – setup an Alexander Ovechkin one-timer – but it's still much harder to stop than it would seem. But the Caps' lethal power play unit was held off the board, keeping the Canadiens in the game.

 

The Capitals' top power play unit consisted of Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer and John Carlson.

 

Capitals fans surely lamented the presence of Johansson on this unit after the miserable shooting season he had last year. Johansson score just eight goals last year but six of those came on the power play where he was largely effective. It was at even strength where he managed just two scores and struggled mightily, helping to drag down assist totals for Ovechkin.

 

The good news on this front was that Eric Fehr was skating up on the top line with Ovechkin and Backstrom in Johansson's stead.

 

Carlson drew onto the top unit with Mike Green sitting out injured.

 

This is just habitual for Green who is a notorious Band-Aid Boy. Still, he can get you 40 points even if he only skates 60 games. A frustrating own for sure but still a top defenseman even with the injuries factored in. He posts great numbers in SOG and Hits categories for those of you in multi-cat leagues.

 

I wonder if having Carlson on the point didn't make things easier for the Canadiens' penalty kill. He's proven to be inconsistent as a shooter at this level. He did score career highs in goals (10) and power-play goals (5) last season and has never scored fewer than six goals in a full season as an NHLer but I still don't respect him on the level of Green and I suspect neither do opposing defenses. I'll be interested to see where Carlson slots in while Green is in the lineup.

 

Also worth mentioning, Matt Niskanen was on the second power play unit. His power play ice time could vanish when Green returns, which is the big reason why he is projected to regress this season.

 

The lone Capitals score came on a brutal turnover by PK Subban. Just inexcusable. Caps rookie Andre Burakovsky was the one to score it, his first NHL goal.

 

Burakovsky had an impressive debut even outside of the goal. I really liked the speed and creativity with which he played. Right now, you'd have to favour him to Evgeni Kuznetsov in the Calder race. He has a bigger role in the lineup, though both are skating on the second power play unit.

 

Final Capitals thought: you can expect Ovechkin to be the first one called out by the new diving judges. I score this one a 6.5.

 

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The Canadiens also struggled on the power play in this one. As I said in yesterday's ramblings, I hate their second unit with Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk. The top unit with David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty and PA Parenteau just moves the puck so much better.

 

It was that second group which eventually tied the game however. Well, they tied it at even strength where they are much more effective. It was Plekanec's third goal of the season. He looks like their MVP so far. Probably deserves to where the "C" if they were to give one out. I'm still putting him down for 50 points because that second power play unit is no good.

 

Dustin Tokarski played a really good game in this one. You could definitely say he stole them this victory. Looks like the Canadiens made the right choice dealing Peter Budaj.

 

Alexei Emelin left the game late in the third and did not return. No word on his status yet.

 

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The Penguins-Ducks game was really fun. Just two strong, fast teams playing a wide-open affair. Not a game for goaltending.

 

The Ducks power play was absolutely humming in this one, which is a great sign for the Ducks who struggled with the man advantage last season. It's pretty obvious that Ryan Kesler is a huge boon to that unit. The threat of his shot is another weapon to go along with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf.

 

Also a good fit on the top power play unit, Sami Vatanen. He looks so much more composed out there than he did last season. He could be this year's Krug/Barrie defensive breakout. He's a power play specialist who is finally ready to perform. He notched two power play assists in this one.

 

Perry scored a hat-trick in this one. Partly because of the dominant power play where he scored two goals but also because the line was simply dominant, period. He and Getzlaf had Patrick Maroon riding shotgun in this one, filling in for the injured Dany Heatley's corpse.

 

I don't see Maroon as a long term fit here. He was just okay and doesn't offer much of a weapon other than being huge. He did register an assist on Perry's first goal but that was more because of Marc-Andre Fleury's secondary assist. Maroon was also on the top power play unit as a net-front presence but again, I don't see him there long term, even if the power play did click on three of six chances.

 

By the way, Kesler got a goal and two assists in an impressive debut. All three points came on the power play. I think we can expect a good portion of his scoring to come on the man-advantage, his line at even strength is nice but not really a scoring unit. His linemates were the speedy Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg. This is good company for Silfverberg is he's going to start scoring at this level.

 

It's also worth noting that Cam Fowler skated in this one despite some injury concerns. That's a positive but with Vatanen looking so good we should probably lower expectations for Fowler. It'll be hard to score more than 35-40 points if he's not on the top power play unit.

 

John Gibson got lit up in this one for his first career NHL loss. Hard to fault him though as the Penguins were dangerous all night. Still, it's not a good sign if you were hoping for Gibson to steal some starts.

 

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Patric Hornqvist is obviously going to be a hit in Pittsburgh. He scored a goal and an assist in this one skating on the top line and top power play unit. That unit looked fairly impressive scoring on one of four tries.

 

Joining Hornqvist were Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz and Kris Letang. So he basically joins the second best power play in the league, filling in for James Neal. He may not be as strong a shooter as Neal but being a righty shot helps make one-timers easier for him so he's a really good fit.

 

I still don't like Letang on the point of that top unit and would rather see Christian Ehrhoff there but the Rolling Stones had some important advice about that.

 

Malkin skated in this one despite missing all of training camp with an injury. It was pretty clear that he wasn't up to speed with the Penguins' new systems. He skated on the wing to help ease his transition. He may have looked a bit lost but he wasn't without his usual creativity.

 

Malkin helped Pascal Dupuis come back with a bang. Dupuis had a goal, three assists and had another goal disallowed. Not bad for a guy with a bionic knee. Obviously Dupuis only has so much upside seeing only second unit power play time but he proved that 60 points is a possibility with the linemates he gets.

 

I was really impressed with the patience showed by the Penguins defensemen on their breakouts. Olli Maatta got three assists in this one at least partially because of some impressive breakout passes. He also showed good proactivity jumping into the rush. I still think he'll be one of those guys who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy but 35 points is possible just off strong breakout passes with the horses up front.

 

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Last night was an excellent display of the two separate faces of the Philadelphia Flyers. On one hand, they've got some horrible defense and shaky goaltending, which was on full display last night. You could argue that there wasn't much Steve Mason could do to keep the puck out with some of the high percentage chances the Flyers' porous D was giving up but I won't make that argument. Mason is a guy I won't touch in fantasy.

 

The pairing of Luke Schenn and Michael Del Zotto was abhorrent last night, going a combined minus-nine. That doesn't say it all since Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux went a combined minus-eight but the latter two suffered from having to be on the ice with the former two. These two might want to make a Happy Gilmore-esque transition to golf.

 

The Flyers also displayed how prolific their offense can be. After going down 3-0 they stormed back to tie the game with three goals in the final five minutes of the second period, including two goals in the final seven seconds by Wayne Simmonds.

 

Ultimately the Flyers lost the game because they are just a terrible defensive team but this team will be good to fantasy players as they should be playing in some high-scoring games just like this one. Even Vinny Lecavalier's statue got in on the scoring with a goal and an assist.

 

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Not the start to the season Cory Schneider owners were necessarily hoping for. Last season he was a save percentage dynamo. The Devils did give up 39 shots so Schneider's numbers weren't horrible but we expect a lot more from the stingy devils and their star netminder.

 

I'm afraid that the offensive explosion by the Devils might give away some unrealistic expectations. Jaromir Jagr, Michael Cammalleri, Michael Ryder and Adam Henrique all had multi-point evenings.

 

Jimmy Howard looked really good in the limited chances that he faced. Health is the only real question I have about him though. He's proven himself capable.

 

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The Panthers-Lightning matchup was a rather physical affair from what I saw. That was mostly caused by the Panthers who didn't have much puck possession so instead decided to get chippy, especially after the whistle. Honestly, it didn't seem like they were all that interested in playing hockey. This led to some early power play opportunities for the Lightning.

 

I really did not like the looks of the Lightning top power play unit. It consisted of Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Callahan, Ondrej Palat and Victor Hedman. I'm cool with the pieces but not the deployment of them.

 

For whatever reason they had Stamkos triggering things from the right half-wall instead of on the left side setting up for his big one-timer. I get that they want to get their best player the puck on his stick but taking away his biggest weapon just isn't how you do it.

 

And that doesn't even mention the fact that everyone else on the ice was left-handed making the prospect of setting up a one-timer passing from the right to the left a more difficult proposition. I'd say that this was a case of players getting mixed up because hockey is a fluid game but this was the case on multiple power play attempts, like it was their intent, which is baffling.

 

They did eventually convert on three of their seven attempts but one of those was by the second unit and one came in the four-on-four overtime so the power play was only four-on-three.

 

So the top unit was not all that impressive though they did get a goal from Callahan, which is encouraging for his owners.

 

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You have to respect the Panthers showing enough offense in this one to force overtime. Two goals is definitely more than they averaged last season. Can't say I expect them to keep even this level of scoring up though.

 

Jonathan Huberdeau owners will be excited to hear that he got on the board. He managed just nine goals in a disappointing sophomore season. He was frequently skating with Aleksander Barkov and Jussi Jokinen, which is as good as it gets in Florida.

 

Aaron Ekblad got his first NHL point on Huberdeau's goal. Expect him to be a mainstay though not a fantasy option this season.

 

Roberto Luongo was the most impressive Panther I thought. He stopped 29 of 32 to keep the Panthers hanging around in a game they really weren't in.

 

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So the New York Rangers may have only one scoring line but it could be a lethal one. The top line of Rick Nash, Martin St. Louis and Chris Kreider combined for all three of the Rangers' goals and all seven of their points. And yes that means St. Louis was playing center. He obviously got dominated on faceoffs but otherwise he looked just fine. What a wonderfully speedy line that is.

 

Otherwise, the most notable thing the Rangers did was kill penalties. They held the Blues scoreless on five power play chances, an impressive feat and a repeat of their strength from last season. Also Henrik Lundqvist played like the King.

 

I'm sure some of you are wondering about Dan Boyle. He left the game early and did not return. Looks like a broken hand that will cost him 4-6 weeks.

 

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The most impressive Blues last night were definitely Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko. Schwartz got in on both goals for the Blues, scoring the first and setting up the second with a terrific back-check and strip. Just a complete player. It's a shame he doesn't figure into their power play plans anymore, which cripples his upside.

 

The big players for the Blues on the power play were Paul Stastny (who left the game briefly but returned long enough to have a Tarasenko shot deflect off of him for his first goal as a Blue), Kevin Shattenkirk, David Backes, TJ Oshie and Alexander Steen. No real surprises there.

 

The second unit consisted of Jori Lehtera, Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester and a rotating cast of forwards, sometimes including Schwartz.

 

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I can't claim to have watched a second of the Senators-Predators game but it looks to have been a dominant showing by the Preds, winning 3-2 on the scoreboard and controlling the shot game 37-20.

 

Craig Smith opened the scoring for Nashville but if you are looking for a reason to be pessimistic, his goal came on the second power play unit, which limits his potential.

Filip Forsberg had two assists be he too was on the second power play unit, which again, is reason for pessimism.

 

The top power play unit was shutout, continuing some of their struggles from the preseason. I still like this unit, however. With James Neal, Shea Weber and Mike Ribeiro they have three guys who have scored at least 25 PPP in a season at this level. Roman Josi is a capable second defenseman on that unit. My only question is about the presence of Gabriel Bourque with that group. Bourque is a player I have no faith in.

 

Neal, by the way, was scoreless but had seven SOG. You can take the gorilla out of the jungle but you can't take the jungle out of the gorilla, which is to say, shooting pucks is what Neal does.

 

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What an awesome game that Chicago-Dallas affair was. It was WIDE OPEN with great speed on both sides. I even felt like the Stars were the better team. They lost in the skills competition mainly because Corey Crawford played unreal in net stopping 32 of 34 chances, many of which were glorious opportunities.

 

The Stars power play clicked on 1/6 opportunities, which isn't a great ratio but it did look dangerous. Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky notched their first power play points as Stars, assisting on a goal by Trevor Daley.

 

Daley, one of my dark horses for this season, got the goal while skating 24:36 including 5:38 on the top power play unit. Alex Goligoski also skated some top power play unit minutes, but nowhere near what Daley did. Score one for Daley.

 

Valeri Nichushkin saw only 10:53 in this one. There were quite a few power plays going both ways though and Nichushkin doesn't play special teams right now so there was only so much time available for him to skate. When he was out there it was with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin but the lack of special-teams minutes is still disappointing. It's why I'm not high on Nichushkin for short-term production.

 

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My Art Ross pick Patrick Kane managed only one point in this one. He actually didn't look great for much of when I was watching. The game seemed to be too much of an end-to-end speed battle for him to shine. Kane is more of a quick, darting player than a flat out speed guy so the end-to-end stuff can be tough sledding. Or maybe the Stars were just doing a great job of controlling Kane on the counter attack.

 

Once four-on-four overtime started Kane dazzled nearly ending the game multiple times with some beautiful flourishes. And he wound up scoring the decisive goal in the shootout.

 

Patrick Sharp was dynamite in this one for the Blackhawks. He scored a goal and an assist with six SOG. He was just blazing the puck at every opportunity on the power play.

 

Duncan Keith also got off to a good start with two points. I figured we'd see some pull back in his numbers this year but so far that seems false.

 

I think that the Blackhawks may be in some trouble with a lack of depth this season. Their bottom pairing of David Rundblad and Trevor van Riemsdyk was awful and skated less than 20 minutes combined after getting benched for the third period.

 

The Blackhawks also had Dan Carcillo and Jeremy Morin skating fewer than seven minutes each. Tough to have so many liabilities against a deep team like Dallas.

 

Brad Richards was skating on the second power play unit and third line so he takes a huge hit to his potential.

 

Andrew Shaw was playing second line center and on the top power play unit. He didn't score but this is an awesome opportunity for him to get to 50 points.

 

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Wow. What a statement by the Minnesota Wild. It's only one game but their 5-0 victory confirms a couple of things that a lot of people were thinking headed into this season. The first being that the Wild would be improved, potentially reaching contender status. The second was that the Avalanche and their poor puck possession ways would be in for a rude awakening this season.

 

Look at that shot differential, 48-16 for the Wild. They TRIPLED the Avalanche in shots. That's embarrassing.

 

Semyon Varlamov was pulled after two periods and Reto Berra came in to stop all 10 shots he faced. I'm not saying that Berra has a chance to steal Varlamov's job. I am saying that Varlamov has a chance to not be a top-20 goaltender this year, let alone a top-five goaltender like he was last season.

 

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How about Zach Parise's line last night? One goal, two assists, plus-four, NINE shots on goal.

 

Darcy Kuemper got the shutout, if it even counts as one having only to make 16 saves.

 

These two teams play again Saturday night in Colorado, let's see if the Avalanche actually show up to play.

 

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Do we have to talk about the Oilers game? I don't want to. On the positive side, they outshot the Flames 40-26. On the negative side, they lost 5-2. So hey, they "won" the possession battle. Is this what progress looks like? If so, I don't want it.

 

Ben Scrivens got lit up in this one. It seemed like most all of the Flames' chances were of a high quality variety. They didn't need shot volume since one in five shots found the back of the net. I don't put this on Scrivens but I also know he just lost a big opportunity in the battle for playing time with Viktor Fasth.

 

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Karri Ramo had an impressive showing for the Flames turning aside 38 of 40 shots. He's a backup I could definitely see stealing the starting job but no you shouldn't get all antsy and grab him in your pool. Calgary still won't be good, which is why Ramo could steal the job. 

 

Mason Raymond with a hat-trick in this one. I don't see him being a consistent producer so don't grab him on account of this performance. The only forward I trust in this lineup is Jiri Hudler who had a goal and an assist.

 

Joe Colborne assisted on all three Raymond goals if you are somehow invested in him.

 

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Blake Wheeler had himself a stat-stuffer of an evening. Two goals in 15 seconds, an assist on top, a plus-two rating and he fought Shane Doan for five PIM. That's a Gordie Howe hat-trick ladies and gentlemen. What a beauty.

 

Bryan Little also had a two-goal game for the Jets, helping to get things off to a great start.

 

Of course, this being Winnipeg, things had to go sour somehow. Sure enough, Evander Kane had to leave the game early and it looks like a serious knee injury. Nothing firm yet but don't be optimistic.

 

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Shane Doan with two assists and the fight to give the fans a little something to cheer about in the home opener.

 

The ghost of Martin Erat went minus-four in this one.

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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