October 5, 2014

Thomas Drance

2014-10-05

Thought on Garth Snow’s busy weekend and the end of the preseason.

 

This last weekend of the preseason, the one that comes right before NHL member clubs have to submit their 23-man rosters to the league and be cap compliant, has always been a major one for Islanders general manager Garth Snow. Generally though, its been a big weekend for Snow because of the waiver wire. Michael Grabner, anyone?

 

Speaking of which, there should still be a flurry of relatively minor trades this weekend. Because certain young players are no longer waiver exempt and have to clear before being re-assigned, teams will likely try to flip the ones valuable enough to net an asset in return. Tampa Bay’s Brett Connolly, for example. 

 

Back to Snow he laid the likky-boom-boom down this weekend. The much maligned former NHL goaltender and shoulder pad enthusiast was wheeling and dealing on Saturday as he picked the pocket of a pair of teams with significant cap issues.

 

First he overpaid for defenseman Johnny Boychuk, dealing two second round draft picks (and a conditional third round pick) to Boston in exchange for the sturdy Bruins defender. It’s a steep price, but the internal logic of the deal (the Islanders really can’t afford to send Buffalo a top-10 pick and have to be good this season) sort of mitigates it.

 

Then Snow sent a hodgepodge of assets, only one of which (Ville Pokka) had much value, to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for ace puck-mover Nick Leddy.

 

Let’s unpack these deals from New York’s perspective first. I already kind of secretly didn’t hate the Islanders blue-line, in part because I’m really high on Travis Hamonic and Thomas Hickey, and think Calvin de Haan has some game. If Lubomir Visnovsky has anything left in the tank (and I’ll wager he does by the way, even if he’s not a good bet to appear in more than 60 games this season) the Islanders were going to have a decent top-four.

 

Adding Leddy and Bocyhuk though gives them injury insurance, and honestly, arguably the best defense-corps one through six in the entire Eastern Conference. Consider that by shot attempt differential over the past three seasons, Boychuk is the third best defender in the NHL while Leddy is seventh. Obviously playing for the Islanders is going to be a bit different then playing supporting roles with the Blackhawks and Bruins respectively, but Boychuk is likely still a second pairing guy on Long Island, and though he’ll face tough competition in a top-four role, at least Leddy is moving to the easier conference.

 

In terms of personal production, by the way, Leddy has produced even-strength points at a rate similar to that managed by Kevin Shattenkirk over the past three years and is one of the most efficient and productive offensive defenders int he NHL. Boychuk doesn’t quite have Leddy’s offensive chops, but he has that bomb of a shot and has scored goals at a top-30 rate among NHL defenseman over the past three seasons.

 

Boychuk and Leddy are really good, even if neither player is a 1A defender. Getting both at the cost of Ville Pokka and two second-round picks (plus an AHL farmhand, a conditional third, and the a RFA rights of Ander Nilsson – a sub-average KHL goaltender) is some exceptional work by Snow.

 

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Fantasy wise I don’t know that Boychuk’s value changes much as a result of this trade, but Leddy is likely to see more time on ice and with it a bump in production. 

 

Who the Blackhawks replace Leddy with will be interesting. T.J. Brennan could be an interesting waiver wire pickup for fantasy GMs if he earns the sixth defender job with the Blackhawks, as could Trevor van Riemsdyk, or Adam Clendenning. If you’re drafting on Monday or Tuesday, I wouldn’t use a late pick to gamble on one of those guys, but I’d definitely watch the waiver wire and be ready to move whenever Chicago appears to decide on a permanent Leddy replacement. 

 

As for the Bruins, I figure Matt Bartkowski – who I really, really like as a two-way players – is likely to move into a permanent role in the top-four, probably alongside Dennis Seidenberg. Bartkowski is a nice two-way piece, but has little in the way of fantasy value.

 

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The situation the Chicago Blackhawks found themselves in this fall serves as a reminder of how scary the Los Angeles Kings are. After all, the Blackhawks surely would’ve preferred to deal Michal Rozsival than Leddy, but he’s on a no-trade clause which complicates things.

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P.K. Subban is a beast, my goodness.

 

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Also beastly: Matt Duchene. What a play.

 

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My fantasy draft occurred this past Thursday and I waited too long to draft Alex Edler. He was finally selected a pick or two before my turn in like the 13th round.

 

Edler won the green jacket (for the lowest plus/minus) last season, but his brutal personal on-ice goal differential wasn’t a reflection of his atrophying defensive effectiveness so much as it was of his godawful offensive season. That “godawful offensive season” was probably driven almost entirely by luck, I’d add, and I think valuing him like a 40 point defender who will get a good number of hits and record shots on goal at a high volume (for a defender) is prudent.

 

In the preseason Edler has been paired with Chris Tanev on a defense pair that looks well calibrated and sharp. Tanev is reliable enough defensively and gives Edler an opportunity to freelance, but he’s also skilled enough to keep up with the suddenly under-rated Swedish blue-liner.

 

I’ve been kicking myself all weekend for waiting too long on Edler. Don’t make the same mistake!

 

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The Unique Traits Series I’ve been concierging for Justin Bourne is nearly over (and thank goodness, it has been a monstrous amoung of work). I really liked Bourne’s breakdown of the San Jose Sharks’ entries this week and recommend you check it out.

 

You can read all of theScore’s NHL preview content here, including “5 players in target in fantasy” for each team, an offseason roundup, and “3 storylines to follow”.

 

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There’s just one more preseason game on the slate today with the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes set to close out the exhibition schedule with an afternooner on Sunday. Next time we’re here together, we’ll be discussing minutes and suspicious hit totals and unsustainable percentages after a crazy Saturday night of NHL action. It’s back!

 

 

Thomas Drance is a news editor at theScore.

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