Ramblings: Vezina Finalists, Holding Steady Through Failures & Free Agent Salary Projections (June 2)

Alexander MacLean

2021-06-02

My updated top-200 contract projections are below. This is a Ramblings article though, so there are a few other thoughts I want to touch on before I get to the contract numbers.

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The Vezina nominees were revealed yesterday:

In my (perhaps slightly biased) opinion, Juuse Saros should have been nominated here. No offence to Philipp Grubauer, but Saros put up extremely similar stats with a lot less help this year. Connor Hellebuyck would have been a deserving nominee as well.

Many seem to think the award will go to Andrei Vasilevskiy, however I say the favourite has to be Marc-Andre Fleury. The two goalies have very similar numbers, but Fleury hasn't yet won a Vezina and is such a well-liked player. If you don't think that won't factor in just enough to tip the scales in his favour, then you haven't been watching NHL awards for long enough.

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That being said, Andrei Vasilevskiy was nearly unbeatable last night against the Canes, despite the shots being 32 to 15 in Carolina's favour. His dominance at the position is in part due to the juggernaut team in front of him, but he is also just a fantastic goalie. Even for an offence like Carolina's it's going to be tough to put up enough goals to take four of the next five games to win the series. It really looks like we're headed for an epic Avalanche/Lightning showdown, and even a Leafs fan like myself could sit back and enjoy that despite Monday's collapse.

On that note, I really hope the Leafs don't blow up the core after this. The Blackhawks were swept in 2017, traded Artemi Panarin for Brandon Saad, and haven't been the same since. The cores with this much talent that stick together do seem to break through eventually, and with some cap flexibility this summer, there is room to make some additions even without messing with the core. Giving the group one more year (which lines up with the expiration of Morgan Rielly's long-term deal and Jack Campbell's bargain contract) is likely what Kyle Dubas is going to lean towards, as there is a lot to like overall.

I've seen cases like this in a few fantasy leagues as well. In one H2H league I spent a few years as a 3-4 ranked team coming into the playoffs, but my team was built off of skater strength, got some lucky goaltending, and knocked off the top team three years in a row. He eventually won in year four when I didn't make the playoffs after pushing chips all in for so long. He then knocked me off the year later by the margin of a single shot. The pendulum for the bounces does eventually swing the other way.

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Back to the Carolina & Tampa Bay series, Anthony Cirelli potted his third of the post-season, and despite the smalle sample size, his shot rate is intriguing me. In the regular season he has never averaged more than 1.7 per game, but in eight post-season game this Spring, he has not put fewer than two pucks on net in any game. He's doing this despite playing less minutes, and while still not seeing top powerplay time. The Lightning are finally going to be forced to shed cap this summer, and that will mean either Cirelli has the opportunity to move into a more balanced offensive and defensive role, or he moves to another team and becomes more of a top line centre than a middle-six option.

Speaking of elite middle-six centres, Vincent Trocheck unfortunately collided with a teammate in the second period and limped off the ice. He returned to play one shift in the third, and then left the game for good. The initial word from Rob Brind'Amour is not positive, and this would be a huge blow if the Hurricanes lost their 2C at this stage. This is also the same leg that Trocheck had ankle surgery on in 2018, so hopefully for him it is not an exacerbation of that issue, or anything with a similarly long timetable for return. In the meantime, look for Jordan Staal to take over on the second line, and continue his offensive success from the regular season.

With Nino Niederreiter also out of the lineup, Brock McGinn has been up on the Sebastian Aho line for the last couple of games. Thoguh after an initial spark in the last game against the Predators, the line has gone quiet. Barring a trade, there isn't room in the top-six for him, so this may be a sell-high window opening by a hair. 

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The draft lottery is tomorrow. I have found myself running a mock draft over at the @NHLRankKing app about once a day as a small draft preparation exercise – I feel like I see New Jersey win it more often than any other team, and that fits with them winning the lottery in each of the last two odd numbered years. Taylor Hall is also on a playoff team again, so maybe his magic sticks with an old team in New Jersey or Buffalo.

I have pick #15 in one league (before the lottery) and it's interesting to me how wide open the draft gets at that range, and how many players there are that I would be happy to get. I see myself likely trading down into the 20s at least, and maybe even as far as 40 and still getting one of the guys I would have considered at 15.

Finding a mock draft site you like and running through one or two before your prospect drafts can be hugely helpful in giving you a sense about how easily you can trade down, or how much you may need to move up to get the guys you want.

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On another draft note, the OHL priority selection is coming up this weekend, and there's an added storyline to watch on top of the usual intrigue that any draft provides:

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We have a three-team dispersal draft coming up in one of my cap leagues, which I am very excited to watch unfold. I'll probably post some follow-up thoughts in a future Ramblings set. Keep an eye out for that in the coming weeks.

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This is year four of projecting salaries, and despite some successes in the past, I think I am finally getting to a point where I am happy with the numbers being spit out by the system. These numbers are based on past production, future upside, age, contract status, and a whole bunch of other variables. My algorithm gives one final number as the projection for each player, and I'm rounding that off to the nearest hundred this year just to make it look a little tidier. I find these values to be a great place to start while assessing my cap league teams, and they're also just fun to see from a fan perspective either for a specific team or for the NHL as a whole. If you're a Colorado Avalanche fan, you can't be surprised to see it, but on the off days during these playoffs there has to be a bit of worry creeping in that your team won't be able to keep all of the pieces together, especially with three of the top four names projected below.

Many of you ask me why I don't list a projected number of years for the contracts. Partially it's because I just don't find it all that interesting. I do this for my own purposes to gain a bit of an edge in my cap leagues, and for that I want to know how much a player is going to be paid in the immediate future. If a player signs a very short-term deal, then it is either below market value which is great, or it and the contract signed next year are likely going to be about what I have projected anyways (e.g. Kevin Labanc). If someone signs a longer-term deal, then I don't have to worry about a new contract for several years, and we're good to go from there.

Obviously, there are some patterns to the number of years, and they're even easier to project if you have a projected cap hit to build off of. If a player gets a large sum, the term is also going to be longer (unless you're Taylor Hall and you don't want to commit too long to Buffalo). For example, Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov and Cale Makar below are likely going to be locked up on deals at least six years in length. Moving down the list, the lower contract value the lower the average term is. Additionally, the older the player, and the further down the lineup they play, the shorter the deal. If you want to know my thoughts on what length makes sense with the projected amount I have below, or if you have any other questions, feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

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A few contracts I feel the need to mention:

Alex Ovechkin is going to be signed for as much money as he wants. Numbers do not tell the whole story here, and he brings that unquantifiable something to a franchise that is obviously in the closing stages of its championship window. If he wants to sign in Washington, something at or a little above the generous $9.2 million AAV given to Nicklas Backstrom would make sense for Ovie. However, with a son, a cup to his name, and an estimated set of career earnings over $120 million, he may also opt to return to Russia, leaving the NHL and the chase for the all-time goal scoring record behind.

Taylor Hall and Kirill Kaprizov both in the high $6 million range are really tough to get a handle on. I can't tell if I agree with those numbers or if they should be higher? It's obvious that Hall's injury last year and his stint in Buffalo this year are bringing his numbers down, but how much is he really going to be able to get on a long-term deal when he doesn't seem to be able to carry a line the same way he did in New Jersey? He may end up taking a bit of a discount into the $6.5-7 million range to play where he really wants to play. As for Kaprizov, the lack of history makes it tough to peg his numbers, though his initial year is similar to Artemi Panarin's rookie season, and he bet on himself, signing a two-year deal at a $6 million AAV. With the cap ceiling higher now, the percentage that Panarin signed at (8.22%) would equate to a $6.67 million contract today. Maybe Kaprizov goes the same route on a two-year deal, and then signs a mega-deal in a few years.

How much money did Sam Bennett make himself over the last couple months. Before the trade deadline he was looking at a small raise (if any) on his $2.55 million salary, and now he's projected to almost double that. His run was that impressive, and Florida really has to wonder just how realistic that small sample size is. I don't see this being a long-term deal because neither side will want to be locked into anything that could very realistically blow up in their face.

The goalies are fascinating too, as we really don't know what to expect from the market. If Boston decides that they want to run with Dan Vladar and Jeremy Swayman next year, and Chicago continues to run with their young options, then the free agent market really starts to saturate. Frederik Andersen's inconsistencies and injuries also knocked him down a peg, and he may need a short-term deal around the amount projected below in order to regain some value. At the age of 31 though, he doesn't have a lot of peak years left to take advantage of.

Slide down into the 100-120 range below, and you see mostly young players with a few depth forwards, and then there's Ryan Getzlaf. How much does he make at the age of 35 and coming off of a season where he really struggled to put up points? How much is really left in the tank there? It would be great to see him move on and chase another cup. Maybe him and Corey Perry join forces on Winnipeg's fourth line next year to try and regain some of their magic together. Lots of options there, but how much it costs to sign him is going to be really interesting. Nothing from $5 million all the way down to a $1 million contract would surprise me.

Speaking of players that struggled last year, Carter Hart really hurt his negotiating leverage with an awful season. A bridge deal is standard for all of the top goalies anyways, so having him sign a one or two-year deal at an AAV that starts with the number two wouldn't be a bad or novel thing for either side. He may still be a steal in cap leagues next year as he rebounds.

If Alex Nylander wasn't in my contract database, I would have completely forgotten about him. He's now theoretically healthy again from his knee surgery, and was even skating back at the end of April. He put up 26 points in 65 games during the 2019-20 season, and could be a threat for 40+ in a full-year back. He'll be a cheap option too.

RankNameAgePos Projected Cap Hit
1Dougie Hamilton27D $9,925,600
2Cale Makar22D$9,578,900
3Philipp Grubauer29G $8,744,800
4Gabriel Landeskog28F $8,557,700
5Andrei Svechnikov21F $7,524,100
6Alex Ovechkin35F $7,453,700
7Miro Heiskanen21D $7,440,300
8Quinn Hughes21D $7,309,200
9Sam Reinhart25F $7,184,100
10Taylor Hall29F $6,972,300
11Kirill Kaprizov24F $6,687,000
12Ryan Nugent-Hopkins28F $6,477,200
13Juuse Saros26G $6,369,000
14Elias Pettersson22F $5,906,700
15Igor Shesterkin25G $5,851,400
16Pavel Buchnevich26F $5,827,800
17Alec Martinez33D $5,485,300
18Patrik Laine23F $5,478,800
19Neal Pionk25D $5,424,200
20Joel Eriksson Ek24F $5,281,800
21Rasmus Dahlin21D $5,014,300
22Kevin Fiala24F $4,994,000
23Sam Bennett24F $4,991,300
24Tyson Barrie29D $4,990,100
25Zach Hyman28F $4,984,100
26Tuukka Rask34G $4,768,900
27David Krejci35F $4,715,100
28Andrew Copp26F $4,674,700
29Tomas Tatar30F $4,626,300
30Jakub Vrana25F $4,569,900
31Conor Garland25F $4,559,500
32Mikael Granlund29F $4,475,400
33Brady Tkachuk21F $4,414,500
34Phillip Danault28F $4,340,700
35Brandon Saad28F $4,231,700
36David Savard30D $4,049,800
37Adam Pelech26D $3,990,900
38Jaden Schwartz28F $3,943,200
39Mike Hoffman31F $3,858,900
40Blake Coleman29F $3,767,800
41Kyle Palmieri30F $3,706,000
42Dante Fabbro22D $3,639,800
43Linus Ullmark27G $3,425,100
44Frederik Andersen31G $3,411,900
45Anthony Duclair25F $3,359,100
46Adam Larsson28D $3,307,600
47Anthony Beauvillier23F $3,285,900
48Barclay Goodrow28F $3,281,800
49Ilya Samsonov24G $3,281,200
50Jamie Oleksiak28D $3,243,900
51Nick Bonino33F $3,163,100
52Vince Dunn24D $3,147,900
53Travis Sanheim25D $3,123,200
54Alex Nedeljkovic25G $3,116,800
55Paul Stastny35F $3,107,600
56Nick Ritchie25F $3,079,700
57Brandon Montour27D $3,066,700
58Kailer Yamamoto22F $3,054,600
59Jesperi Kotkaniemi21F $3,000,900
60Robert Thomas21F $2,993,800
61Jordan Kyrou23F $2,845,600
62Chris Driedger27G $2,845,600
63Dillon Dube22F $2,789,400
64Brock McGinn27F $2,771,000
65Mattias Janmark28F $2,765,000
66Drake Batherson23F $2,738,300
67Nikita Zadorov26D $2,714,800
68Jonathan Bernier32G $2,708,200
69Filip Hronek23D $2,682,700
70Janne Kuokkanen23F $2,670,300
71Joel Armia27F $2,644,000
72Ilya Sorokin25G $2,594,000
73Mike Reilly27D $2,568,200
74Alexander Edler35D $2,561,200
75Warren Foegele25F $2,527,200
76Max Comtois22F $2,526,200
77Eeli Tolvanen22F $2,507,200
78Nick Foligno33F $2,506,400
79Cody Ceci27D $2,499,700
80Casey Mittelstadt22F $2,494,700
81Andreas Athanasiou26F $2,489,800
82Juuso Valimaki22D $2,478,900
83Ryan Donato25F $2,422,300
84Ryan Murray27D $2,353,900
85Filip Chytil21F $2,353,700
86Brandon Carlo24D $2,351,400
87Petr Mrazek29G $2,345,300
88Tyler Bertuzzi26F $2,343,800
89Alex Goligoski35D $2,303,100
90Jake Bean22D $2,300,700
91Carter Hart22G $2,208,300
92Casey Cizikas30F $2,179,700
93Sami Vatanen29D $2,164,200
94Zach Sanford26F $2,157,800
95Erik Haula30F $2,133,600
96Yegor Sharangovich22F $2,128,800
97Alexander Wennberg26F $2,087,000
98Teddy Blueger26F $2,078,300
99Jason Dickinson25F $2,052,700
100Rudolfs Balcers24F $2,047,500
101Alexandre Texier21F $2,035,300
102Nolan Patrick22F $1,991,700
103Derek Forbort29D $1,975,800
104Jaroslav Halak36G $1,956,400
105Travis Dermott24D $1,945,400
106Victor Mete22D $1,913,900
107Luke Glendening32F $1,856,400
108Carl Grundstrom23F $1,810,500
109Pius Suter25F $1,808,200
110Alexander Volkov23F $1,804,000
111Ryan Getzlaf36F $1,788,600
112Adam Erne26F $1,771,100
113Antti Raanta32G $1,759,000
114Zach Aston-Reese26F $1,752,900
115Michael Rasmussen22F $1,735,200
116Max Jones23F $1,717,700
117Sam Steel23F $1,709,800
118Gustav Forsling24D $1,685,200
119James Reimer33G $1,684,300
120Mathieu Perreault33F $1,632,800
121Nick Bjugstad28F $1,628,300
122Artturi Lehkonen25F $1,609,600
123Adam Gaudette24F $1,584,400
124Brandon Hagel22F$1,576,800
125Bobby Ryan34F $1,575,900
126Michael Del Zotto30D $1,573,000
127Danton Heinen25F $1,562,300
128Tomas Nosek28F $1,560,200
129Tucker Poolman27D $1,559,200
130Christian Djoos26D $1,545,000
131Ian Cole32D $1,535,200
132Jordan Oesterle28D $1,521,700
133Trevor Moore26F $1,518,700
134Conor Timmins22D $1,484,500
135Ondrej Kase25F $1,469,400
136Isac Lundestrom21F $1,467,000
137Mike Smith39G $1,466,500
138Jordan Martinook28F $1,451,500
139Ivan Barbashev25F $1,432,100
140Derick Brassard33F $1,408,400
141Tyson Jost23F $1,399,500
142Tyler Bozak35F $1,382,000
143Marcus Johansson30F $1,377,000
144Libor Hajek23D $1,367,100
145Riley Nash32F $1,351,600
146Eric Staal36F $1,331,200
147Callan Foote22D $1,324,700
148Erik Gustafsson29D $1,323,000
149Blake Lizotte23F $1,304,900
150Logan Stanley23D $1,303,600
151Devan Dubnyk35G $1,255,400
152Alex Chiasson30F $1,250,300
153Adin Hill25G$1,203,700
154Travis Hamonic30D $1,196,000
155Michael Bunting25F $1,195,500
156Mark Jankowski26F $1,194,500
157Joel Kiviranta25F $1,191,400
158Travis Boyd27F $1,167,700
159Morgan Geekie22F $1,161,400
160Sam Gagner31F $1,158,400
161Brian Elliott36G $1,153,600
162Nicholas Merkley24F $1,143,300
163Travis Zajac36F $1,127,800
164Trent Frederic23F $1,126,900
165Julien Gauthier23F $1,114,800
166Jason Spezza37F $1,102,500
167Ross Colton24F $1,076,600
168Keegan Kolesar24F $1,070,100
169Evan Rodrigues27F $1,067,800
170Alex Galchenyuk27F $1,066,500
171Wayne Simmonds32F $1,063,100
172Pekka Rinne38G $1,058,700
173Mikko Lehtonen27D $1,057,700
174David Rittich28G $1,051,100
175Kevin Stenlund24F $1,031,600
176Kale Clague22D $1,028,200
177Mikhail Grigorenko27F $1,021,300
178Brett Howden23F $1,015,500
179Olli Juolevi23D$1,005,000
180Brandon Sutter32F $1,001,200
181Jujhar Khaira26F $993,200
182Michael Mcleod23F $990,200
183Zach Bogosian30D $988,700
184Rasmus Asplund23F $986,300
185Jordie Benn33D $985,400
186Zdeno Chara44D $984,600
187Josh Mahura23D $954,600
188Alexander Nylander23F $945,900
189Dominik Kahun25F $943,700
190Pierre-Edouard Bellemare36F $898,100
191Ryan Dzingel29F $885,400
192Evgeny Svechnikov24F $853,600
193Vinnie Hinostroza27F $838,800
194Andrew Cogliano33F $830,100
195Lias Andersson22F $829,700
196Tanner Jeannot24F $821,800
197Noah Gregor22F $790,900
198Marc Staal34D $780,800
199Jayce Hawryluk25F $776,000
200Brett Ritchie27F $775,100

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