Capped: Analyzing Players Skating In The Cup Final, Like Nichushkin And Hagel

Jamie Molloy

2022-06-23

Good day everybody, where last week was my first week back, I have to say thank you to everybody who contacted me and sent me words of encouragement! With the fourth game having been played last night, whether it is the result that you were looking for, we are finally seeing some good hockey in the playoffs; this is what a Final should be. The best teams battling it out and trying to find a way to dig deeper and hit that next level at a time when it matters the most.

Much like last week, I plan on touching on some players that are playing in the Cup Final that are worth noting for next season! Again, I won't be touching on players like Victor Hedman, Brayden Point, Cale Makar, and Gabriel Landeskog because we all know those types of players will retain their value going into next season.

With the NHL regular season ending, Fantrax doesn't have the roster percentages showing currently so I will be omitting them for the foreseeable future! The positions listed for each player come from the official website of the NHL. With the contract years, I will be listing any UFA/RFA as just that and specifying what type of FA they are. Anybody who has a contract guaranteed for next season, I will be listing the number of years left that as if we have started next season. Sam Reinhart for example has 3 years remaining as of this moment, the remainder of this season, and then 2 more after this one.

Cap data from Cap Friendly.

#1) Valeri Nichushkin – RW – Colorado Avalanche

Contract: UFA this summer
Roster Percentages: 49.8% ESPN, 49% Yahoo

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
6225271809289270%19:02


Nichushkin has probably been one of the bigger surprises this season when it comes to pure production on the offensive side. With 52 points in 62 games (0.84 points-per-game), he had a career-high in that area, his previous career high was 34 points across 79 games (0.43 points-per-game) and that came back in his rookie season back in the 2013-2014 season. This may have been a player that went undrafted in your league, and someone managed to scoop him up off free agency part way through the year. The Avalanche have a lot of decisions to make this summer as they have a lot of expiring contracts. Some players would include: Lehkonen, Burakovsky, Kadri, and Nichushkin (there are others expiring but none are major players). With MacKinnon due for a salary increase next summer, Joe Sakic has to figure out how he wants to assemble the roster with that in mind. A player like Nichushkin who quietly came close to a point-per-game season, along with posting nearly 3 shots per game, 1.43 hits-per-game, and an ice-time that is just over minutes higher than his prior career-high (again, came in the 2013-2014 season). I don't think he can go wrong with retaining an asset like Nichushkin. He should be able to provide some solid depth to most fantasy teams out there. I don't estimate his salary taking too much of a jump from the $2.5M that he made on this expiring contract, and he should be worth using a draft pick on next season.

#2) Alex Newhook – C – Colorado Avalanche

Contract: $908K – 1 Year remaining
Roster Percentages: 1.7% ESPN, 3% Yahoo

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
71132011360364034.7%13:34


While Newhook's numbers this year don't really jump off the page at you, it's important to have some context on this though. He spent most of the year centering the third line with players around him that aren't super talented offensively. The Avalanche have a strong top-six forward group, and a reliable bottom-six. He started 52.7% of his shifts in the defensive zone, and for a player that has elite offensive potential with an average defensive game he may struggle to show his true value given the role. But realistically, for a player who can now buy alcohol for himself (if he so chooses) in the United States as of the end of January 2022, he was just under the half a point-per-game threshold. When you're getting a player like Newhook it's for putting up points, I'm not 100% sure how he will progress next year given it will be his sophomore season and some players struggle in that year. Along with the roster questions that the Avalanche face, Newhook should be seen as a core piece of the Avalanche going forward. The Avalanche seemingly have an opening at 2C behind MacKinnon (contingent on what they do with Kadri), so if he can get deployed in that role and take a step forward while being in a role where he is focusing more on the offensive side of the game, he could very well become a 55+ point player next season. To me that is good enough to have as either a depth starter for a fantasy team, or a decent guy to have on the bench. It depends on your format because if you're in a league that values younger players, such as dynasty-based leagues, keeper formats, any league where you can retain players going forward, he should be rostered. One thing to note for fantasy relevancy for players, the team that they play on can mean more than the individual talent of said player. Deployment, line mates, team playstyle, etc, all of these come into my mind when I'm thinking on what players I want to roster.

#3) Erik Cernak – D – Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract: $2.95M – 1 Year remaining
Roster Percentages: 5.6% ESPN, 10% Yahoo

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
551128600165730%19:09


Cernak may not produce a lot in the offensive categories, but that is never where this defensive defencemen is going to strive. Cernak isn't super coveted in traditional scoring leagues where you accumulate points for getting goals, assists, etc. His true value comes in the leagues that score by categories earned. With over three hits per game and over a block per game, along with posting just shy of 20 minutes per night on average, Cernak can be a great depth piece to a team's blueline. A player with his style shouldn't get a huge raise after next season concludes, so I wouldn't expect anything too crazy in terms of his salary in the long run. The main reason he is on this list is because at some point Tampa Bay is going to have to start rolling out their players in a more balanced way. They have elite players all around their roster, but the thing is that they're starting to get older. Players like Hedman and McDonagh are 31 and 33 years old respectively, while they don't seem to be on the decline yet, they must begin deploying guys in more balanced ways to squeeze as much winning as possible out of their aging, elite core. I don't think Cernak is ever truly going to be elite when it comes to the offensive side of the game, but he could be a candidate for benefiting from what he plays with and sometimes getting that type of production from the depth/bench is truly where elite teams are formed.

#4) Brandon Hagel – LW – Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract: $1.5M – 2 Years remaining
Roster Percentages: 4.1% ESPN, 5% Yahoo

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GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
77251912563633242.1%16:21


* The stats listed above are for his entire year, so these totals reflect his time in Chicago, along with Tampa Bay *

With less than 130 games played in his entire career, he has amassed a 25-goal season, that in its own is fairly impressive. I have an odd time fully evaluating Hagel as a player, but I think he can be an effective middle-six winger in the NHL. His stats with Tampa weren't the greatest as he had only seven points (4 goals, 3 assists) through 22 games. I think its important to note that his ice-time average dropped from 17:28 in Chicago to 13:35 in Tampa. He was thrown into a different role, getting fewer offensive minutes as a whole. His oZS% (offensive zone start percentage) was 62.6% in Chicago, and it decreased to 42.9% in Tampa Bay, his dZS% (defensive zone start percentage) was 37.4% in Chicago but increased to 57.1% in Tampa Bay. The way the data reads to me is that given Tampa Bay's forward core being so deep, they didn't need Hagel to come in and play a top-six role like he was accustomed to in Chicago. He didn't need to be a difference maker in Tampa Bay, all he had to do was play with tenacity and help get the team on the score sheet when need be. With the team having some questions about their forwards, guys like Killorn and Palat could end up seeing their way out (or anyone else) which could create more of an offensive friendly role for a guy like Brandon Hagel.

Going into future weeks I plan on talking about player's salaries, contract extensions, players who should see their pay increase/decrease, and many more things as well. I am very open to hearing ideas from the community as well, so please feel free to either comment here on the article, post ideas in the forums, and honestly just contact me on Twitter!

If you want to have any questions answered or interact with me, please feel free to interact with me on the forums or in the comments of the articles, or on Twitter @JamieMolloy_DH.

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