Ramblings: Cozens’ Extension; Seattle’s Depth; Colorado’s Injury Returns; My Trade for Iafallo & More (Feb 8)

Alexander MacLean

2023-02-08

Post-All-Star break the rest of the season comes up on us quickly. This isn't the mid-way point of the year, it's the two-thirds mark. The trade deadline is less than a month away, and coming up in just another five weeks is the start of the H2H playoffs. Once we get into March, the potential for load management starts to creep in too. The Bruins, Lightning, and Leafs look to be nearly set not just in the playoffs, but locked into their final position as well thanks to the current playoff format. As a result, these would be the teams that we might see players sit out on back-to-backs in the final month, especially after reinforcements are brought in at the trade deadline. Something to keep in mind as we hit the stretch run.

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Someone who I didn't really have on my radar at all until I traded for him yesterday, was Alex Iafallo. The deal was Neal Pionk and Nino Niederreiter for Jeff Petry and Alex Iafallo. My main need for the trade was to increase my production on the back-end, and I added in the forward swap just to offset the age gap a little between the rearguards. The league is a points-centered cap league, and looking into those numbers it just shows how close the four have really been this year:

NameCategory WinsGPGAPTSSH%PTS/GPaceEVGEVPPPGPPPSHGSHPSOG+/-PIMFOWFO%HitsBkSGvTK
ALEX IAFALLO730711189.60.6035414340073210457.11818611
NINO NIEDERREITER84813102311.60.483911192400112-78350.0103211518
JEFF PETRY433313165.10.483211026005931800.0108631715
NEAL PIONK952715227.40.4235620120094-52500.0117833420

The obvious elephant in the trade is Petry's age. However, with a bunch of expiring bargain contracts on my roster including Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Jonathan Huberdeau, Jesper Bratt, and others, this season is one where I am looking to push a lot of chips in to make a run. Even if I can only get two more productive seasons out of Petry, then that's still worth the upgrade (and the extra $400K against the cap) in my situation.

Past that, we can dive into the numbers, and overall those favour Pionk, but take it with a grain of salt because a lot of his wins are in the secondary categories that have a lot less weight in our league (a hit is worth 0.05pts, while a goal or assist is worth 1.0pts). That means, looking at the PTS/G column, I did manage to upgrade a little bit at each position in the trade.

However, I think the key to the deal is in the end going to be what Iafallo does in the second-half. Four games into the season, the 29-year-old got injured, and he was sitting at five points at the time. He has 13 points in 25 games since, basically an identical rate to Nino on the year. Looking at last year's numbers, there is also some concern, as he really tailed off in the second half, despite moving from the second line to the first.

This year, in Iafallo's productive first four games, he played mostly on the third line. Since his return from injury, he has been stapled to the hip of Phillip Danault on the second line. Looking back over the last few years, there is a bit of a surprising trend that comes with all of that, where Iafallo seems to produce better numbers the further down the lineup he plays. Perhaps it has something to do with matchups or frequency of offensive zone starts, or it could just be that his style of play is better suited with middle-six players.

Regardless, I'm hopeful that Iafallo can put up a 50-point-pace the rest of the way, as that would be in line with his overall numbers this season, as well as his previous best season in 2019-20. His underlying numbers don't indicate that he's due for much regression in either direction, so him keeping up a consistent output looks like a safe bet.

For the other three in the trade, Neal Pionk likely needs to get out from under Josh Morrissey if he is going to get back to being the 50-point rearguard he was from 2019 to 2021. For now he is a 35-point player.

Jeff Petry doesn't seem to mind whether Letang is in the lineup or not, and has paced for at least 40-points in five of the last six seasons. His shot rate has dropped below two over the last season-and-a-half, which does hint that he is slowing down, despite the move to Pittsburgh propping up his point-totals in the short term.

Nino has seen his scoring rate dip a little moving from the Canes to the Preds, and while the points may not show it, he does appear to be getting more comfortable with the team, having nearly doubled his short rate from Q1 to Q2. Him and Iafallo should both come in a shade under 20 points in the remaining 30+ games this season.

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It appears Justin Schultz was back at practice for the team, but he isn't back in the lineup just yet.

Daniel Sprong also sat for the game, and I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we could see that on occasion through the end of the year. He was down under eight minutes in the Kraken's last match before the break too.

Overall, the forward group draws its strength from its depth, and as the team showed with the trade for Jaycob Megna on defence, the team is willing to add. They already have more lineup-worthy skaters than they have spots in their lineup, and suddenly the team is also nearly-fully healthy. The team could also have Chris Dreidger back in the lineup after the trade deadline as well, further complicating the goalie situation.

Jumping back to the forwards, Oliver Bjorkstrand entered last night's game on a three-game point streak, and he looks to finally be finding his consistency. His production has dropped a little from where it was the last three years, and it's in part due to losing two minutes of ice time, but that is exacerbated by a drop in shooting percentage as well.

As mentioned above with the load management, Seattle would also be in a good position to rotate through the extra healthy bodies they have. This is where owning players on a good team can work against you in fantasy, is the team not having enough to play for at the end.

Seattle has one of the better schedules remaining though, so that should help counter the odd game off that any of their fantasy-relevant players may get.

Despite all the depth, Seattle was steamrolled and shut out by the Islanders who are definitely an offensive juggernaut now, and no this isn't just a small sample size. Sarcasm aside, the Isles are also a deeper team now, and sometimes even adding one player at the top of the lineup has a trickle-down effect as everyone else slides into place. They could come on hot in the second-half, and they're off on the right foot so far.

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Valeri Nichushkin and Bowen Byram made their long-awaited returns to the Avalanche lineup. The lines shook out looking like this:

Byram did leave for a few shifts in the first and headed to the dressing room looking like he was in some discomfort. He is a big risk health-wise, but when he is active, he's worth owning even in standard, one-year leagues.

Byram finished with one assist, one shot, three hits, and three blocks in over 21 minutes of ice time.

Forward Artturi Lehkonen and defencemen Cale Makar also both left the game for short periods, but returned before the end. The Avs have had a lot of injuries overall, but unfortunately haven't built themselves the luxury of having a playoff spot locked up to be able to rest players.

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If you're in need of a peripherals boost, then look no further than ARZ. Liam O'Brien is finally back in the lineup, Jack McBain is turning into one of the better cross-category contributors at just 23, and if you have a minors spot to burn in the meantime, Dysin Mayo could be back up with the big club after the trade deadline with an exodus of current roster talent.

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The big news of the day was Dylan Cozens signing a big new contract:

That was my initial reaction to the deal with having taken a quick peek at my salary spreadsheet. The projected AAV there, of around $4.5 million, would have made sense on a three-year deal. However, the Sabres are right at the precipice of their contention window starting to open, and signing your core and foundational players to deals they can outplay in the back-half is a lot more important than pinching pennies in the short term. The gamble is already paying off with Tage Thompson, and I am sure they are already wishing they went longer with Rasmus Dahlin (though it could be that Dahlin wanted to bet on himself).

The bottom line is that this might not be a bargain as quickly as it was for Thompson, but by the end of the contract it should be, and that is without even taking into account a rising salary cap, which could see some exponential growth in the coming years now that the Covid deficit is nearly paid off.

Looking at Cozens' numbers, he is set to hit his 200-game breakout threshold right at the end of the year, so he should enter next fall ready to explode onto the scene. He's has already taken a big jump from last year to this year, so even though we may not see the 20% increase off of his previous best season (which would put him at a 100-point-pace for next year), he could very realistically jump into the point-per-game territory.

His most common linemates are Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka, who are also both very young, and can grow with him over the next number of years. This will also be the line that likely continues to get the optimal offensive deployment, while the Thompson line takes all of the tougher matchups.

All that to say, it's a good time to be a Cozens owner.

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The Penguins flipped wingers on their top lines, with Rickard Rakell jumping up to line one with Sidney Crosby, and Bryan Rust was moved to Evgeni Malkin's line.

Stylistically, this may be the better fit for the Penguins to close out the season. Hopefully it gets their five-on-five play going at the rate we know it can.

The Penguins were playing against the reigning champs who are now as healthy as they have been all season, so take it with a grain of salt that the Avalanche dominated the possession and chances for the first half of the game. Pittsburgh managed to keep it close though, and did end up getting a goal from Rust, and then won the game on the back of their big guns in OT.

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In a key matchup against one of the teams chasing Vegas for one of the final playoff spots, the Golden Knights turned to Adin Hill coming out of the All-Star break. Hill has now started two of the last three games, as the Golden Knights try to find their footing from a long slide over the last month.

Hill saw very little action in the game with the Predators hardly mustering any offence, and Vegas coasted to the win.

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See you next Wednesday!

In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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