Capped: Candidates to Rebound From Injury – Western Conference

Alexander MacLean

2017-05-11

Capped dives into which injured players from the Western Conference are due for a rebound. 

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After tackling the Eastern Conference’s walking wounded from last season, this week we turn to those from the Western Conference. It seems as though there were a few more superstars injured in the East, so the players this week may be of a slightly lower profile. To astute fantasy owners however, this is actually where you can gain the biggest advantage

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Max Domi (LW) –  Arizona Coyotes

Cap Hit  –  $863,333

Max Domi needed surgery after he broke a bone in his hand in December this past season. Both before and after the missed time, his numbers were a little underwhelming. Domi managed to put up 38 points in his 59 games this past season, which left him at the exact same 0.64 points per game rate as his rookie year the season before. It could take one more season for Domi to really get his feet under him, and for the young supporting cast around him to develop enough to keep up with him. If Clayton Keller or Dylan Strome can step in right away and give Domi a playmaking centre to create some offence with, then we could see him taking the next step very soon (my money is on Keller over Strome).

 

In addition to his offensive upside, Domi also brings a solid number of penalty minutes. All in all, there is quite a bit of value here for a thin left-wing position. This is especially relevant when Domi’s salary is taken into account. He has one more year left on his rookie contract, and then he will likely get a smaller bridge deal so he can get through his breakout and show his worth for a long-term deal. Domi has not really had to deal with the type of injuries that get re-aggravated, so that shouldn’t be too much of a concern. Therefore, he should be outperforming his contract until his bridge deal expires three to four years from now.

 

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John Gibson (G) –  Anaheim Ducks

Cap Hit  – $2,300,000

Gibson, unlike Domi, has a great supporting cast, but a big history of the nagging type of injuries. If you own Gibson, like other goalies with similar injury histories such as Sergei Bobrovsky and Steve Mason, you have to be ready for some ups and downs throughout the season. Going into next year as a 24-year old goalie, Gibson doesn’t have much more to prove, seeing as he has placed in the top-10 in the league in goals against average the last two years while keeping his save percentage above .920%.

 

The problem for Gibson will be staying healthy. After making it past the second round with Anaheim this year, and thus cutting his summer short, there will be less time for recovery as well as offseason training. Bobrovsky managed his excellent bounce back campaign this year after having a long summer to try a different training regimen in order to stay healthy. Perhaps this is what Gibson needs in order to make it through a full season unscathed. That being said, even if he only gets the 40-50 starts or so that he has had the past few seasons, there is massive value to be had. Other than Matt Murray on his rookie contract, there wasn’t a starting goalie on a playoff team that made less than Gibson’s $2.3 Million this year.

 

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Robby Fabbri (LW) –  St. Louis Blues

Cap Hit  – $894,167

Robby Fabbri had his season cut short after he tore his ACL on February 4th against the Pittsburgh Penguins. He underwent successful surgery and to this point there is no reason to think that he will not be ready for the start of next season. He is as hard working as players can come, and will continue forcing his way up the St. Louis depth chart from the drop of the puck next season. Like Domi above, it won’t be long before Fabbri is out-performing both the last year of his entry-level deal, and his second NHL contract.

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After an incremental increase in points and shots per game, Fabbri is ready to become a bigger part of the St. Louis offence. On the flip side of the numbers, Fabbri’s plus-minus stat took a big hit this season, going from a minus two in his first season to minus 16 this year. We could partially chalk this up to circumstances out of his control, namely the poor play of any St. Louis goalie this past season in front of ex-St. Louis head coach Ken Hitchcock. Fabbri ended up playing just over one game for new head coach Mike Yeo before his injury. How Yeo decides to roll out Fabbri in pre-season next fall will be something to monitor, as it could hint at how quickly Fabbri is going to be producing out of the gate.

 

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Jacob Trouba (D) & Tyler Myers (D) –  Winnipeg Jets

Cap Hit  – $2,812,500* (JT) & $5,500,000 (TM)

The go-to guy on defence for the Winnipeg Jets is still Dustin Byfuglien, however as long as they can stay healthy, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers are key cogs for the present and the future of their blueline. The two combined to play less than a full season, mainly because Myers missed time for multiple injuries, specifically a lower body one that required surgery in February. Winnipeg did not release details on the specifics of the injury, however they did note that it was unrelated to his previous surgeries. Trouba on the other hand only missed 22 games with a few minor injuries, minus being suspended for two, and holding out for a better contract to begin the season.

 

After Myers posted 48 and then 37 points in his first two seasons, he has yet to top the 30-point mark in his next six injury-plagued seasons. He is a big risk in terms of banking on any kind of health over a full season, however between modest point totals and solid contributions in categories such as hits, blocked shots, and penalty minutes, there can be value found here. The biggest stumbling block with getting value out of Myers is his cap hit. Unless your league has a fantastic setup for dealing with injured players, then his mix of salary and inactivity can be a tough pill to swallow.

 

There is much more reason to be optimistic about Trouba. He is four years younger, is developing well, has not played fewer than 60 games in any season, and is currently at half of Myers’ salary. Trouba’s offence also started to shine through this past season, seeing him post above a 0.5 points per game mark for the first time in his career. If he can continue on that upward trend along with his great contributions in the peripheral categories, then he will be one of the best defenceman bargains on defence this coming season. Unfortunately he is due up for a new contract in July of 2018, and at that point he will be looking for his big pay-day, essentially derailing his bargain status. Enjoy the cheap production while you can.

 

*Due to Trouba holding out with his contract, the cap hits between this season and next are different. Trouba’s cap hit goes down to the $2.8 Million shown above for next season, and at that rate he is going to be a bargain.

 

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More Capped:

The Ones Paying For First-Round Exits

 

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Find me on twitter: @alexdmaclean

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