2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders

Eric Daoust

2015-06-02

GustavNyquist

 

What can fantasy owners expect for the Red Wings and Islanders next season?

 

 

While only the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning remain in the battle for the Stanley Cup, most of the teams have been eliminated and have begun their offseason. Even though each team will undergo many changes this summer, we can still look at their rosters and get an indication of things to come next year.  The goal will not be to cover every player, but rather to focus more in-depth on some areas of great interest to fantasy owners, especially cases where there is some uncertainty that has a great impact on player values. As we continue our march through the Eastern Conference starting from the bottom, today we will now take a look at the Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders.

 

 

Detroit Red Wings

 

The Wings are clearly a team in transition with their two best players – Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg – in their mid-30s and not going to remain elite-level players forever. However, unlike many other teams that go through similar phases, this team has never bottomed out and this year qualified for their 24th consecutive playoff appearance. The team's pipeline has helped tremendously as they have promoted several young players to their main roster in recent years, many of which are already playing key roles.

 

The most prolific of the recent graduations are a pair of young forwards in Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar. Nyqust's 54-point campaign was not unexpected as he already had a 48-point year (in 57 games) under his belt. His drop-off in points per game was expected given that his shooting percentage stood at an unsustainable 18.3 percent in 2013-14. Where things go from here remains to be seen. While some personal growth and maturation as a player will help things along, there are areas of concern. His 2014-15 shooting percentage (13.8 percent) is still high and he was very reliant on the power play to collect his points, gaining 24 of his 54 points on the man advantage. The good news is that he is frequently lined up on Zetterberg's line as the team captain has done a better job staying healthy. This stability will help Nyquist. All things considered, look for him to stay in the same 50-point range in 2015-16.

 

Tatar, on the other hand, surprised many by increasing his 2013-14 total of 39 points by almost 50 percent. Most notably, his 29 goals were tops on the Wings. His shooting percentage (13.7 percent) is a bit high but his shooting frequency is trending up so it will probably be a wash overall. Unlike Nyquist, Tatar is often on Datsyuk's line. With his centerman's durability in question, it could put a cap on Tatar's potential for the foreseeable future. However, if Datsyuk managed to play a full schedule it would do wonders to linemates such as Tatar.

The Islanders have finally reaped the rewards of developing such a deep and talented pool of prospects. The team runs much deeper than superstar John Tavares as they now possess strong depth at all positions and received boosts last summer during free agency and through trades.

 

With that said, the two wing spots next to Tavares remain two of the best in fantasy hockey in terms of offering benefactors a big offensive boost. On right wing, Kyle Okposo has secured the spot almost exclusively and his numbers (120 points in 131 games the last two years) show how much a player can benefit from lining up next to a superstar.

 

On left wing the story is much different as the spot was a revolving door this year. The actual breakdown of Tavares linemates at even strength can be found here. To summarize, the following players also spent a lot of time on the top unit: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee and Nikolay Kulemin. There are many factors at play that will likely keep this a revolving door for the foreseeable future.

 

Last summer, Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski signed lucrative contracts with the Islanders. Kulemin had a decent year with 31 points and Grabovski was much more disappointing with just 19. However, their contracts will always help them get better looks than they may deserve. This could continue next year.

 

The other factor is the Islanders' emerging youth. Bailey and Lee already spent considerable time on the top line and Brock Nelson could force himself into the mix at some point too. With so much talent available and no clear-cut winner, the coach may continue to use the options available and shuffle lines as he sees fit. The end result will likely be another distribution of many players with respectable point totals rather than one winner posting true top-line scoring numbers.

 

Lee in particular is worth further analysis. Despite all of those looks on the top line, his season average in ice time was just 14:23. Still, he was able to post 25 goals and 41 points as a rookie. Even more impressive is the fact that his goal total is not inflated as he was able to get 197 shots (shooting percentage of 12.7 percent) even in a lesser role. If he could grow into a second-line role he could be in for a big point increase even without winning a full-time spot on the Tavares line.

 

On defense, the Islanders were full of surprises, starting with the pre-season acquisitions of Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy. The duo played a key role in the team's improvement and both are now locked in with big contract extensions. Beyond them, Travis Hamonic also surprised with 33 points, his best offensive campaign. After years of being almost irrelevant as an offensive contributor, he caught fire down the stretch. Many are wondering if this year was an outlier or if Hamonic perhaps has even more to offer.

 

Even though many defensemen break out offensively after several years in the NHL, Hamonic simply did not have much of a history prior to this year – both in the NHL and at the lower levels. But the biggest concern is the rest of the Islanders' defense corps. Even with Lubomir Visnovsky probably heading out as an unrestricted free agent, the team already possesses Boychuk and Leddy who are capable of playing in all situations and are now paid accordingly. That leaves Hamonic on PP2 which has been his role for years.

 

In the pipeline, the Islanders possess some strong options that will get in the way at some point. In particular, Griffin Reinhart and Ryan Pulock are both top prospects that are developing rapidly. Even if neither of the two becomes a keeper overnight, their presence will take looks away from Hamonic and perhaps put him in more of a shutdown role. Even though Hamonic's 33 points were impressive and may even repeat in 2015-16, the fact that the Islanders possess so many options both now and in the future will probably limit everyone's individual upside.

 

In goal, Jaroslav Halak is the undisputed starter as his 59 appearances and 38 wins were both career-highs. His veteran presence was a huge plus on such a young squad. Backup Michal Neuvirth did not fare well after being acquired late in the season and will probably not be back. The Islanders may opt to sign a veteran free agent or could turn to 25-year-old Kevin Poulin, a restricted free agent this summer. Those looking for a keeper league option a year or two down the road can take a look at Stephon Williams, a 22-year-old prospect who just wrapped up his college career and was impressive during his five-game stint in AHL Bridgeport to end the year. If he can build on the positive momentum next year he could become the team's top NHL-ready goalie prospect which would put him in line for the backup job in 2016-17.

 

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Next week the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning will be covered. If you have any requests, post them in the comments section.

 

Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.

 

2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators

2015-2016 Fantasy Outlook: Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers

2015-2016 Fantasy Outlook: Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets

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