2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators

Eric Daoust

2015-05-26

 

Mark.Stone.USAT.5.26

 

 

What can fantasy owners expect for the Penguins and Sens next season?

 

 

While four teams remain in the long battle for the Stanley Cup, most of the teams have been eliminated and have begun their offseason. Even though each team will undergo many changes this summer, we can still look at their rosters for an indication of things to come next year.  As we continue our march through the Eastern Conference starting from the bottom, today we will now take a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators.

 

 

Pittsburgh Penguins

 

The Penguins' campaign was marred by injuries that not only took key players out of the lineup but happened with enough frequency that it caused a lot of lineup changes from game to game. The instability along with a very poor finish led to many disappointing fantasy years throughout the roster. As a result, the Penguins were barely able to clinch a playoff berth and were quickly eliminated by the New York Rangers. The up-and-down play can be seen in the statistics across the board. Many players disappointed but there were some that thrived this year as well.

 

Starting at the very top, Sidney Crosby, generally considered the best player in the world, had a very ordinary season by his standards despite the fact that he could have won the Art Ross if not for missing five games. Looking into the numbers, he was pretty unlucky, as his shooting percentage was around 2.5 percent lower than his career average despite shooting with the same frequency as usual. At his usual 14.4 percent he would have had six additional goals to give him a total of 34 (and a point total of 90). His assists were also down primarily due to disappointing play from many of his teammates. Case in point, Crosby's most frequent linemates were Chris Kunitz and David Perron who, as we will see shortly, both fell short of expectations. Crosby will need better support in order to get back to the 100-point mark.

 

Pittsburgh's other elite centerman, Evgeni Malkin, also fell short of the lofty numbers he has put up in past years. However, in his case it was due to injury, as he missed significant time for the third straight year. In fact, had he been healthier he may have been in contention for the scoring title. But from a fantasy perspective the lack of durability is a major red flag. His value is very difficult to assess, because on one hand, if he cannot stay healthy he does not deserve to be one of the first players drafted this fall. On the other hand, a player like Malkin is always in the spotlight and the negative attention (including his poor playoff showing this spring) could make your rivals overreact. Treat it case by case and definitely try to gauge how highly your league's Malkin owner rates the Russian star.

 

 

The Senators had a very successful year that was capped off by the miraculous late-season play of goaltender Andrew Hammond which enabled them to grab a playoff spot during the final weekend of the schedule. Additionally, this year there were many players on the team that shined from a fantasy standpoint while providing a ton of hope for the future.

 

The team's best player is Erik Karlsson who showed, once again, why he is the best offensive defenseman in the game. For the second year in a row he hit the 20-goal mark, though his 66 points were actually down from past years. Adding to the reliability factor is the fact that his shot frequency is on the rise with a career-high of 292 this year. This will help ensure that his goal totals remain at an elite level every year and also provide a ton of opportunities for deflections, which only helps pad Karlsson's assists.

 

Up front, the biggest story was Mark Stone who led all rookies with 64 points. On the surface, you can look to his shooting percentage (17 percent) which is quite high and see a red flag. However, Stone's season average time on ice sits at 17 minutes which is quite low for a high-end forward that is used in all game situations. In comparison, he averaged almost 21 minutes in six April games while he was red-hot to end the campaign. This will help him get more shots which in turn will help compensate for any drop in shooting percentage. If he can get over the 20-minute mark next year, he will most likely be able to match his impressive rookie numbers and may even surpass them.

 

On the flip side, fellow right winger Bobby Ryan again fell short of what many people would expect on the score sheet from a player of his caliber and pedigree. The main reason was that he was lacked shooter's luck by scoring on just 8.1 percent of his shots. If he converted at his career average of 13 percent he would have had 29 goals, an improvement of 11 markers. With that said, Ryan did get into a groove as a passer, with his 36 assists falling just one short of his career-high 37 set back in 2011. This was only his second time getting more than 30 helpers so a drop here should not be surprising next year. In all, Ryan should be able to increase his goal total next year and has an outside chance of hitting 60 if the stars align.

 

Former sixth-overall pick Mika Zibanejad set a career-high with 46 points this year while taking a significant amount of faceoffs for the first time in his career. While on one hand his shooting percentage (13 percent) was a bit high, he is also entering his fourth year which as Dobber points out often is a time when players see a big hike in production. As one of the team's top two centers, he will usually play with either Stone or Ryan which will help pad the point total.

 

Another centerman that took a big step forward was Jean-Gabriel Pageau who after a few years of development has become a quality NHL player. He was especially good down the stretch with 11 points in his final 18 games while logging 15:33 per game, up from his season average of 14:11. He will be strong in multi-category leagues but will have limited value in offense-heavy leagues while he plays on the team's third line.

 

Of course, most intriguing heading into next year is the Senators' crease situation. Hammond was spectacular down the stretch and earned himself a new three-year contract. The low salary signifies that he is most likely to be utilized in a backup role. Regardless of how often he plays, do not expect a repeat of this year's off-the-charts numbers. Hammond was riding a hot streak that is rare for any goaltender.

 

Keeping Hammond in the fold likely means that either Craig Anderson or Robin Lehner will be dealt this summer. Anderson is a proven veteran that has carried teams on his back at times and would surely be his team's starter regardless of where he goes. He could end up on one of the rebuilding teams trying to jump-start a return to respectability or he could be a replacement goalie for a team trying to shake things up.

 

Lehner has been considered a top prospect for years but has seen his numbers decline in each of the last two years. The potential is still there, but since he has not delivered big at the NHL level just yet, it is much more likely that he will be used more sparingly on a new team, at least initially, unless the team has no other good option. Making matters worse is he has been out with a concussion since mid-February. He has made progress of late but with concussions there are no guarantees.

 

RFA: Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson, Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone

UFA: Erik Condra

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust@DH_EricDaoust.

 

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2015-2016 Fantasy Outlook: Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers

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