2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning

Eric Daoust

2015-06-09

 

 

 

JonathanDrouin

 

What can fantasy owners expect from the Capitals and Lightning next season?

 

 

With this year's Stanley Cup playoff nearing its end, the offseason is now just around the corner. Even though there is still the entry draft and free agency to come, we can still look at current NHL rosters and get an indication of things to come next year.  The goal will not be to cover every player, but rather to focus more in-depth on some areas of great interest to fantasy owners, especially cases where there is some uncertainty that has a great impact on player values. As we continue our march through the Eastern Conference starting from the bottom, today we will now take a look at the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning.

 

 

Washington Capitals

 

Under new coach Barry Trotz, the Capitals' train found its way back onto the tracks and many players took big steps forward including captain Alexander Ovechkin who appears to have ridden himself of many critics (for now).  Remarkably, the team still possesses a number of players who have yet to show their full potential which provides plenty to look forward to next year.

 

The duo of Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom was working its usual magic as they finished fifth and sixth respectively in points. Ovechkin led the goal-scoring race by a wide margin with 53 goals while Backstrom topped the league with 60 helpers. In addition to providing elite-level numbers for their fantasy owners, their great play also boosts the value of the third man playing at their side. Unfortunately, similar to the situation with the New York Islanders on the Tavares/Okposo line, the Capitals have a revolving door next to their two best offensive stars. Using Frozen Pool we can see who the lucky players were this year.

 

The Lightning have improved tremendously under general manager Steve Yzerman and now find themselves in the Stanley Cup final. The team has a very deep roster which has helped them get to where they are but, as we will see, presents problems for some players individually.

 

Starting at the top, it was a difficult year for Steven Stamkos by his standards. After four consecutive years above the point-per-game mark, his total fell to 72. One problem is a reduction in ice time which fell to 19:45 after being as high as 22:01 when he was producing at an elite rate. This was no doubt impacted by the team's strong depth. Also, the amazing chemistry of the "Triplets" line left Stamkos with lesser linemates. Unless their chemistry continues for all of next year the coach is bound to shuffle the lines at some point which will benefit Stamkos tremendously.

 

On a positive note, Stamkos was still shooting at a normal rate and finished second in the league with 43 goals. But with the team's depth cutting into his ice time his upside is more limited than in the past. He could get back to 80 points but reaching the heights he enjoyed earlier in his career will be nearly impossible for the time being.

 

One of the NHL's top trios is the line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat. The three enjoyed rare chemistry that brought out the best in each of them. While a regression could be in the cards due to some strong shooting percentages for Johnson and Kucherov, a step back would still leave them in a great place in fantasy land.

 

Johnson in particular could suffer as the second centerman behind Stamkos who is still the face of the franchise. As mentioned, the lines will be shuffled at some point which will favor Stamkos. Johnson is still the undisputed second guy and the "Triplets" will be reunited often but the end result could be a season that falls short of 70 points.

Palat and Kucherov are a bit safer as their change in line assignment will often land them on Stamkos' wing. This will give them a top-level centerman the vast majority of the time which will help maintain their point totals. They will both be very valuable on draft day in leagues that favor wingers due to the league-wide depth at the center position in your league.

 

The most interesting player to track is Jonathan Drouin, a former third-overall draft pick that has struggled at times as a rookie and has not played much this postseason. Still, he managed to get 32 points in 70 games, a solid total for a player that just turned 20. Even though his overall game still has a long way to go, he has shown he can put up points at the NHL level. Taking the next step, however, will be very difficult as the team has a number of quality players ahead on the depth chart. Still, he should be able to improve upon this year's point total even in a lesser role. In particular, he is capable of more than four goals but will have to increase his shot total of 76 considerably to take a big step forward. He will probably not break out anytime soon on this club but could reach the 40-point mark in his current situation.

 

On defense, the team is headlined by Victor Hedman. While the young defenseman is one of the best in the NHL and owns immense fantasy upside, he also has a tendency to miss time to injury and has only been able to put it all together for a full year once. This has to be kept in mind heading into your draft this fall as Hedman is a full tier beneath the other star defensemen that have a better history of staying healthy.

 

One of the biggest surprises this year was Anton Stralman, who was very productive in his first year for the Lightning. When looking deeper we can see that Stralman took advantage of a great opportunity to reach his potential. The arrival of Braydon Coburn along with a blueline that will hopefully be healthier next year will make it difficult for Stralman to repeat this year's numbers. By no means will he fall to the numbers he produced during his time with the New York Rangers but he could fall out of fantasy-relevance in some smaller leagues.

 

In goal, the Lightning are in a good position with a solid starter in Ben Bishop and a young backup with sky-high potential. While Bishop played 62 games this year, it is worth noting that he started the year backed up by the ineffective Evgeny Nabokov. Since December 16 when Vasilevskiy made his debut Bishop has started 35 of 50 games, missing five with a lower-body injury. This would put him on pace for 57 starts over a full year. With a stronger backup in the mix for the entire 2015-16 campaign, look for Bishop to see some additional time off.

 

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Next week the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers will be covered. If you have any requests, post them in the comments section.

 

Follow me on Twitter@DH_EricDaoust.

 

2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders

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2015-2016 Fantasy Outlook: Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers

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