Eastern Edge: Reviewing Recent Turnaround Predictions

by Cam Metz on December 18, 2018
  • Eastern Edge
  • Eastern Edge: Reviewing Recent Turnaround Predictions

 

My favorite play of the season so far has been picking up Petr Mrazek once Curtis McElhinney went down.  As you’ve probably read by now my appetite for goalies is not very large.  So when a goalie pickup turns into a week winning shutout performance it sure is gratifying.  Hopefully those in need of a goalie took the plunge with me last week on Mrazek; this Carolina team has so much to offer – you want to be the guy holding the bag when the goalie situation (hopefully) figures itself.

This week I wanted to step back in time and check out some of the players discussed over the last couple weeks to see if anyone has turned it around.  Using career averages and taking a look under the hood at specific metrics as follows:

  1. xG – Expected goals scored  – read more about the prediction here
  2. IPP – the percentage of points a player accumulates when a goal is scored and that player is on the ice. 
  3. Power play ice time – more PP time is a good thing
  4. Shot volume (SOG)– sometimes you can shoot yourself out of a slump
  5. Primary assists – correlate to driving play and future expected production

 

Shayne Gostisbehere continues to be ice cold.  Over the past four games he has accumulated zero points and only ten shots in the last seven games.  What is scary for Ghost owners is that he actually has increased his shooting percentage to four percent – which is sustainable.  He’s still seeing 67% of his team’s power play ice time; I don’t expect the shakeup with the coaching staff to hinder this number.   He has a sustainable IPP at 67% – meaning that if the Flyers can start scoring more (23rd in the league as of 12/17/18), that Ghost could see some more points flow his way.   It is really hard to cut ties with a player of his caliber via trade at this point so you’re kind of left holding the bag.

Max Domi has scored three goals in his last twelve games, a pace that if it began at the beginning of the season would see him score 20 goals.  He is still shooting 18.2% and is likely to continue to feel the compounding effects of regression.  Even more concerning is that he is capturing a point on 78% of the goals scored while he is on the ice, coupled with his team shooting 13% when is out there as well.  Needless to say that feels like whomever owns Domi in your league is skating with an anchor around their neck that hasn’t been dropped yet.   Don’t fall prey to anyone peddling him to your team, and if you own him – get out now.

Yanni Gourde has picked up one point in his last five games; with only one goal in the last twelve games.  Typically when numbers like that are thrown around you can easily say, if he can keep shooting the puck with consistency he will be able to pick up a few goals sooner or later.  For Gourde, that statement does not apply.  He is still shooting 18% and while you may point to his career average being high, it is unlikely to be sustainable.   Gourde still sees ice with very impactful players so his value isn’t the waiver wire.  I’d recommend selling him as a secondary piece in a two or three player trade.

What a season Ryan Dzingel is having in Ottawa. He has seven points in his last nine games and is on pace to hit 60 points this season.  As a long time reader of Dobber Hockey I am a believer in the 4th year break out, thanks to frozen tools you can monitor who those players are with the report tools.  Not surprisingly, Dzingel finds his way to the top of the list this season.  His shooting percentage is a touch too high at 15% and his primary assist rate is below 50% a not so great sign that he is actually the one driving play while he is on the ice.  It is likely that he finds himself in the lower fifties when all is said and done this season.  These are the type of tools that you should continue to use as the season marches on.

Brendan Gallagher continues to throw pucks at the net.  One key stat that I think is worth mentioning is that he sits near the top of the league in shots from 0-15 feet in distance –a high danger area.  He has been cold lately, it might be worth trying to see if you can pick up some of his SOG volume from an owner beginning to doubt his start to the season. He is slumping to a 48 point pace after a strong start so it will be interesting to see if his high danger shots can pull him up towards the 55-60 point range.

It’s worth mentioning that Keith Kinkaid is again the sole starter in New Jersey as Cory Schneider is back on the shelf with an abdominal strain.  New Jersey has a negative Goals For minus Goals Against with -15 which is good for 25th in the league.  Their expected goals for minus their expected goals against actually places them at 14th in the league.  This back of the napkin comparison has provided me with enough incentive to begin the Keith Kinkaid experiment – hopefully it goes better than the Scott Darling experiment.

Given the difficulty of predicting goalies it is probably worth buying a lottery ticket on Carter Hart in Philly.  Weirder things have happened.

Do your fantasy team a favor and go check out the frozen tool site.