Eastern Edge – The Carolina Hurricanes

by Cam Metz on August 28, 2018

 

Jumping right into the summer series and jumping over to the Metro Division – the Carolina Hurricanes.

Like for the Wild West series, the ranks are based on a 12-team, head-to-head league, using the categories of goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits, and blocks for forwards/defensemen and wins, saves, save percentage and goals against average for goalies. Player eligibility for this series is based on Yahoo, and draft ranks are based on average draft positions compiled from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS by FantasyPros.  2018-2019 ADPs are up if you couldn’t tell!

Check out yesterday’s column by Chris Kane on the Nashville.

Recap 

Carolina finished third to last in the Metro Division last year.  They had the lowest goal total any of the Metro teams last year, and were incapable of stopping a puck when Scott Darling was in net.  Taking a big swing on Darling last year was a saving grace, it stopped me from selecting an early round goalie that if it were Price, Holtby, and or Murray would have ended roughly the same way Darling did, but with much more draft capital expended. 

Carolina boast a young lineup that has always threatened to be a playoff contender but for some reason or another wasn’t able to put all of the pieces together.  Cam Ward is no longer a Hurricane, a new owner has promised to be competitive, and another wave of youth is headed for the ice this year with talented rookie Andrei Svechnikov headlining the group.

The team was in the bottom third of the league for the last two seasons on the power play but the arrival of Dougie Hamilton via trade provides optimism that the first unit will create a large increase on their conversion rate.

Surprisingly despite their lackluster record, the team had a few players provide value on their ADPs; a trend that will likely continue this year as well.

 

Overvalued

Scott Darling – Darling was drafted 140th overall last year with promise that he would be able to bring the success he experienced in Chicago as a backup to the starting role in Carolina.  He is still under contract for three more years in Carolina and will likely be given every opportunity to be the starter this year.  Darling was terrible shorthanded from high-danger areas.  From medium-danger opportunities at 5v5 he has also was below the league average.  I highlighted the delta_HD shorthanded because it is likely that Darling will revert to the mean and be able to provide value on his ADP.  Expect Darling and Petr Mrazek to split starts for the early part of the season.  Darling could be a very valuable third option if the team takes a step forward this season.

   

 

                                         
 

Jordan Staal – Leagues that count faceoff wins Staal was likely rostered.  Staal should center the first line this year and will be an intriguing option in Carolina if this young roster takes a step forward.   Playing between Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Aho will provide secondary points through osmosis.

 

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

79

19

27

46

0.58

160

11.9%

181

12

32

 

Undervalued

Justin Faulk – Despite only scoring 31 points last year, Faulk supplied a steady stream of shots, which elevated his value as the likely fourth defenseman on most teams.  Faulk shooting percentage was about half of his career average so it is likely that he will be able to produce some more goals next year.  Unfortunately for Faulk his power play QB1 duties have likely come to an end with Dougie Hamilton now in town.  Expect similar results in points next year, likely with an increase in goals and decrease in assists. Depending on his ADP he will still hold some value in large leagues because of on his shot totals.

 

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

76

8

23

31

0.41

211

3.8%

128

19

90

 

Dougie Hamilton– It finally looks like we will see Hamilton take control of power play unit that escaped him in Calgary.  Hamilton was drafted 68th overall last year and ended up as the 44th ranked player this past season.  This coming year he is currently being drafted at pick 86, which is criminally low considering the opportunity that waits in Carolina.  Draft Hamilton with confidence this year, he will provide the high floor and high ceiling that your team needs on the backend.  One last thought – Dougie had the fifth highest shots per game total of all defenseman and was 14th in the league in shots for all players.

 

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

82

17

27

44

0.54

270

6.3%

83

12

80

 

Sebastian Aho – Last year Aho was the 121st skater drafted yet he ended the year as the 69th skater overall.  He scored 65 points and almost eclipsed the 30-goal plateau for the first time.  This year Aho is being selected at 64th overall, the expectations that he takes another step forward this coming year are driving his ADP high and likely will be a reason to avoid him at the draft this year.  While he certainly could provide 75-point upside there are options like Rakell, Couture, and Huberdeau with ADPs behind Aho.

 

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

78

29

36

65

0.83

200

14.5%

65

16

17

 

Teuvo Teravainen – This was my regrettable move last year when I dropped Teravainen after ten games.  He consistently produced points through all four quarters of the year last year, and was a tremendous value as the 252nd overall pick last year; he ended the season at 92.  Teuvo produced 20 power play points, which he is likely to improve on this year as the unit as a whole takes advantage of Hamilton at the point.  Teravainen is being drafted at 139th overall and should easily out produce that draft position this year.

 

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

82

23

41

64

0.78

185

12.4%

26

20

22

 

I hinted that there are talented rookies ready to jump into NHL action with Martin Necas, Valetin Zykov, and Andrei Svenchnikov.  You’ll need to purchase the Dobber Fantasy guide to get the complete story on them, you can find that here.

Sources: Hockey-reference.com, Naturalstattrick, Corsica.hockey, frozenpool

 

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