Eastern Edge – Week 4 Notes

by Cam Metz on October 30, 2018

 

Most teams have played 10 games as of writing this article.  It’s beginning to feel like the season-long trends are beginning.  Certainly hot starts will cool and cool starts will become hot (I know revolutionary thought right there!).  There are injuries popping up that owners only wish occurred to other teams in their pool. I ran the usual numbers that I’ve been running in season so I thought it would be time to revisit those and touch on some other interesting points thus far.

General thoughts:

  1. Evgenii Dadonov, Vincent Trocheck, and Alexsander Barkov are all receiving about 5% more PP TOI than last season.  These guys are just starting to take off in the last couple games.  Might be the last chance to swing a trade before this power play catches on absolute fire.  Trocheck especially has a low IPP compared to the last couple of seasons.

 

  1. Mike Hoffmann is on pace for 291 shots this season

 

  1. Sean Couturier and Philadelphia are extremely underwhelming.  More on this later…

 

  1. Nico Hischier is on pace for 82 points and is racking up PPTOI with 4:26 thus far. He’s been exciting to watch.

 

  1. Sidney Crosby isn’t shooting the puck as much. He’s on pace for just over 200 SOG. 

 

  1. Interesting players who are on pace for 250+ shots in the East:

Player

SOG Pace

Mika Zibanejad

343

Cam Atkinson

336

Micheal Ferland

298

Mike Hoffman

292

Brady Tkachuk

287

Keith Yandle

282

Brendan Gallagher

279

Boone Jenner

271

Andreas Athanasiou

268

Justin Williams

253

 

 

  1. What a revelation Thomas Chabot has been in Ottawa! 13 points in 10 games played. On pace for 172 shots on goal.  He’s receiving the +60% PPTOI for his team – a number that is extremely sticky for predicting future success.  Target Chabot owners, see if they are afraid that the good times will end soon.

 

  1. Brendan Gallagher is surpassing his career average shooting percentage of 9% – currently clicking at 17%.  If I were a Gallagher owner (and I am), I’m shopping him hard hoping someone will bite on his early season production and shot volume.

 

  1. Matt Duchene is on pace for 90 points.  He’s shooting 4% higher than his career average.  He’s picked up about 5% more of his teams PPTOI thus far. Interestingly his IPP is much lower than his career average 64% vs mid 70s%.  He’s being relied upon for more D zone starts this year which given the roster isn’t surprising. Anyone that has drafted Duchene has been happy with this production.  Perhaps a decrease in his shooting percentage can be offset with an increase in his percentage share of his team’s points.

 

Concerning players:

Sean Couturier – If I was a Couturier owner I’m looking for a way out – quickly. The scariest part is that his shot rate has absolutely plummeted to a pace of 164 shots.  I’m not sure that’s something that is going to magically change after playing 10 games. It’s either a very unlucky stretch – or it’s the beginning of a season long trend.  The one ounce of good news is that his PP time is still sky high with 4 minutes per night – I suppose that could be the one thing keeping me from selling him to the best offer.  Shot rates are where I start getting afraid – when they are dipping there isn’t a lot of brute force that can be applied to make puck luck revert rate stats.

Mathew Barzal – another player that has seen their SOG especially at 5v5 completely disappear.  Compared to last year Barzal is shooting almost one puck less per game at 5v5. This has to be extremely difficult to stomach as a Barzal owner.  The good news is that he continues to rack up the assists and is seeing more PPTOI than he was last year – by a significant margin.  Last year he saw 62% of his teams total PPTOI, this year he is at 72%.  Other Dobber writers have touched on his lack of shot generation and how likely it is that he can produce elite point totals.  As with Couturier I can’t really stomach the lack of shots; I’d be looking to get someone who else to take this lack of shot generation of my hands ASAP.