Paul Stastny vs. Ryan Kesler

Rick Roos

2015-02-11

 

PaulStastnyBlues

Find out why Stastny vs. Kesler is a split decision cage match….

 

This battle features Paul Stastny vs. Ryan Kesler. While this isn't the marquee match-up it might've been a few years ago, fantasy leagues are won and lost as much by the performance of guys like them as they are by those at the top of your line-up. With that in mind, we'll figure out who has more left in the tank, and whether either is still a good value to own.

 

Career Path and Contract Status

Despite having a father and two uncles who combined for over 2000 career NHL points, and himself posting superb numbers in his first season of college hockey, Stastny wasn't grabbed until the 2nd round (44th overall) by the Avs in 2005. That put him in the position – and pressure cooker – of playing for the same franchise as his successful family members, which he compounded by wearing his father's #26.

 

Everything went great at first, with Stastny joining the Avs in 2006 at age 20 and posting 254 points in 274 games. But then came two step-back campaigns, amounting to 110 points in 153 games. And although he rebounded with 60 points in 71 games last season, there were whispers that his production uptick stemmed from his impending UFA status.

 

Kesler was a Vancouver first rounder (23rd overall in 2003) who had a 28 game NHL cameo that same season, before getting additional AHL time during the 2004-05 lockout. Once back with the Canucks, Kesler was by no means an immediate star, going from 23 points in 82 games, to 37 in 80, to 59 in 82, then to 75 in 82 for 2009-10.

But while his ascent to fantasy stardom was slow, his fall from being a top guy was quicker. After 73 points in 82 games in 2010-11, his next two full seasons saw him play 154 games and post just 92 points, culminating in the now 30 year old Kesler being dished to the Ducks in July 2014 as the centerpiece of a trade that also resulted in Nick Bonino and Luca Sbisa coming to Vancouver.

 

Stastny is on year one of a four year UFA contract with an AAV of $7M per season, while Kesler earns $5M annually on a deal that ends after next season.

 

Ice Time (this and other tables reflect games through February 9th)

 

Both players are in their first season on new teams, having spent their entire previous NHL careers (655 games for Kesler, 538 for Stastny) on another squad.

 

Season

Total Ice Time per game (rank among team's forwards)

PP Ice Time per game (rank among team's forwards)

SH Ice Time per game (rank among team's forwards)

2014-15

16:59 (P.S.) – 6th

19:40 (R.K.) – 2nd

2:25 (P.S.) – 5th (tied)

2:51 (R.K.) – 3rd

0:33 (P.S.) – 9th

2:12 (R.K.) – 1st

2013-14

18:23 (P.S.) – 4th

21:48 (R.K.) – 1st

2:22 (P.S.) – 6th

3:29 (R.K.) – 2nd

0:36 (P.S.) – 7th

2:12 (R.K.) – 1st

2012-13

19:21 (P.S.) – 2nd

18:57 (R.K.) – 3rd

2:42 (P.S.) – 3rd

3:17 (R.K.) – 3rd

2:06 (P.S.) – 2nd

1:51(R.K.) – 5th

2011-12

18:49 (P.S.) – 2nd

20:05 (R.K.) – 1st

2:21 (P.S.) – 2nd (tied)

3:28 (R.K.) – 3rd

0:37 (P.S.) – 9th

2:00 (R.K.) – 3rd

 

It's rare that players have such a large delta between their highest and lowest Total Ice Times within just a four season window, yet here we see Stastny with a roughly 2:30 difference and Kesler with nearly a 3:00 gap. Unfortunately for Stastny, his low point is happening now, while Kesler's was during his injury-shortened 2012-13 season when he played only 17 of 48 games.

 

0.52 (P.S.)

1.76 (R.K.)

0.72 (P.S.)

0.76 (R.K.)

2.17 (P.S.)

2.11 (R.K.)

0.25 (P.S.)

0.29 (R.K.)

10.22 (P.S.)

10.23 (R.K.)

2011-12

0.43 (P.S.)

0.72 (R.K.)

0.50 (P.S.)

1.40 (R.K.)

0.62 (P.S.)

0.76 (R.K.)

2.40 (P.S.)

2.88 (R.K.)

0.24 (P.S.)

0.24 (R.K.)

9.98 (P.S.)

9.40 (R.K.)

 

It's astonishing how close both players had been in FOW and PP Points prior to this season, although each now holds an edge over the other in one of the categories. Kesler dominates in PIM, where he's generally doubled Stastny's output, and Hits, where he's usually been good for two to three times as many as Stastny but this season is besting Stastny's total by tenfold! Blocked Shots and Shots used to be comparable, but Kesler has built leads in both over the past two seasons, particularly Shots, where he's averaged one more per game than Stastny last season and nearly that for 2014-15 as well.

 

Kesler's multi-cat prowess is no mystery to poolies; however, he seems to be taking things up a notch in Hits and PIM of late. And I'd argue that most fantasy GMs aren't keen to just how much better he's now producing in these areas, especially since they might be too busy lamenting his points decrease from his Vancouver heydey. All in all, Kesler could represent a rare example of a multi-cat bargain.

 

On the flip side, Stastny was never an elite producer in Hits or Blocked Shots, or Shots; however, after an uptick last season (curiously timed to coincide with his impending UFA status), his production has nosedived in both areas. What's more, his Shots are down for the third straight season. In his case, his comparatively poorer performance might not be fully noticed by poolies, creating the potential for an undesirably higher perceived value than actual value in non-points only leagues.

 

Luck-Based Metrics

 

Season

Personal Shooting Percentage

PDO (5×5)

IPP (5×5)

IPP (5×4)

Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)

2014-15

11.2% (P.S.)

9.8% (R.K.)

1013 (P.S.)

1001 (R.K.)

62.1% (P.S.)

44.4% (R.K.)

56.2% (P.S.)

75.9% (R.K.)

51.2% (P.S.)

48.3% (R.K.)

2013-14

16.7% (P.S.)

10.5% (R.K.)

1011 (P.S.)

974 (R.K.)

72.5% (P.S.)

54.3% (R.K.)

81.2% (P.S.)

52.2% (R.K.)

46.7% (P.S.)

48.2% (R.K.)

2012-13

10.3% (P.S.)

11.1% (R.K.)

970 (P.S.)

983 (R.K.)

66.7% (P.S.)

80.0% (R.K.)

83.3% (P.S.)

66.7% (R.K.)

42.5% (P.S.)

47.1% (R.K.)

2011-12

11.0% (P.S.)

9.9% (R.K.)

983 (P.S.)

1008 (R.K.)

68.9% (P.S.)

55.3% (R.K.)

61.5% (P.S.)

48.3% (R.K.)

50.7% (P.S.)

48.0% (R.K.)

 

Seeing this data, we can rule out the influence of unsustainable good luck for either player. After all, only once (this season with Stastny) did either have an offensive zone starting % above 50.7%; and Kesler didn't top 49% in any of these seasons. And not only do both players have reasonable career personal shooting percentages (12.7% for Stastny, 11.5% for Kesler), except for one season (Stastny's 16.7% in 2013-14) they were generally close to that average.

 

And although Stastny twice had a 5×4 IPP above 81.0%, he's below 57% for 2014-15. Kesler had a similar pattern in 5×5 IPP, posting 80.0% once (albeit in only 17 games) while otherwise never exceeding 55.3%, whereas Stastny's 5×5 IPP has been more consistent, and only once above 68.9%. As for PDO, it's varied for both but never fallen outside of the "normal" range of 970-1030.

 

Overall, these numbers suggest both players have perhaps fallen more toward the slightly unlucky end of the spectrum; however, given the cumulative data it seems like that's simply par for the course, so we can't count on increased luck-based production any time soon.

 

Value and Injuries

Kesler is C and RW eligible in Yahoo leagues, and was selected on average as the 28th C-eligible player in Yahoo drafts, whereas Stastny is only eligible as a center and was selected 40th on average. Both were selected in 100% of Yahoo drafts. Fast forward to now, and Kesler is still owned in 93% and ranked as the 21st best center, compared to only 62% ownership and 47th ranking for Stastny. Thus, Stastny's actual and perceived value have both dropped, although the latter (100% vs. 62%) more so than the former ( 40th to 47th), while Kesler's perceived value has dropped slightly (100% to 93%) and his actual value has increased somewhat (27th to 21st).

 

Both players are rightfully listed as Band-Aid Boys. Stastny has played 80+ games twice in his career and missed an average of six games per season over the past five seasons; but on the plus side, he hasn't missed more than 11 games in a single season since 2008-09. In contrast, Kesler is an "all or nothing" injury guy, having played in 77 or more games in seven of nine seasons, but missing 31 and 34 games in his other two. So with Stastny you know you'll get a few missed games here and there, whereas Kesler is less of a risk, but if his number comes up you could be without him for a while.

 

Who Wins?

In points only leagues, it's Stastny. After all, Kesler's dominance in secondary categories would be of no benefit, and Stastny being owned in a third fewer leagues suggests Stastny would cost you less to draft or trade for while giving you the similar or even more scoring than Kesler. Beyond that, Kesler's more rough and tumble style and SH Ice Time per game raise serious doubts about his ability to produce well both in the short and long term – enough to wipe away his multi-positional eligibility benefit.

 

For leagues which count other categories beyond points, I had guessed going into writing this piece that Kesler wouldn't be worth the premium you'd have to pay, but he's inconspicuously upped his output in key areas like Hits and PIM. What's more, he did so last year for Vancouver and this year for Anaheim, which suggests he can maintain that pace going forward. Meanwhile, after a likely UFA-related uptick in those categories last season, Stastny has now all but stopped hitting or blocking shots.

 

Therefore, I think Kesler just might be worth a somewhat inflated cost in multi-cat leagues, making him the choice over Stastny for at least for the time being. But my advice would be to try and trade Kesler in the 2016 offseason, before age and playing style catch up to him and because you should be able to get a solid return at that time, as he'll either be a sought after UFA or have re-upped with Anaheim, both of which will help boost his perceived value.

 

 

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