Steven Stamkos vs …uh…Olli Jokinen?

Rick Roos

2015-04-01

jokinen

 

When Olli Jokinen is better than Steven Stamkos…

 

With many poolies still managing their line-ups for H2H playoffs and roto titles or putting together their keeper lists for the 2015-16 season, there's no better time for a battle between two centermen who are likely on many of your short lists – Steven Stamkos and Olli Jokinen. But you know I'm never afraid of tackling even the toughest of dilemmas – this Cage Match starts now!

 

Career Path and Contract Status

Stamkos was selected first overall in the 2008 draft, and was in the NHL the same season. But rather than hit the ground running he managed only 46 points as a rookie. And although he's shown some flashes of goal scoring ability, Stamkos has still failed to reach the 50 assist mark in a season, a feat that's been accomplished since his rookie campaign by the likes of centers Ryan Kesler, Paul Stastny, Mike Ribeiro (twice!), and even Todd White, Mike Richards, and Vyacheslov Kozlov!

The latest trends are especially discouraging, as Stamkos has managed only 43 assists in his last 114 games. And this from a guy who many saw as having the potential to be a truly elite set-up man and even heir apparent to recent Cage Match combatants Joe Thornton and Henrik Sedin.

Jokinen was a third overall selection (for the Kings) and, after having been dealt twice in his first three full seasons (as a centerpiece to bring Ziggy Palffy to the Islanders and Roberto Luongo to Florida), he broke out for the Panthers with 251 points in 246 games from 2005-06 to 2007-08. For nine consecutive seasons, Jokinen posted 50+ points, with only the 2012-13 lockout being able to do what NHL defenses couldn't – stop him from producing.

Even now, Jokinen is so valuable that St. Louis – having seen him post two points against them on December 30th while he was a member of the Predators – jumped at the chance to grab him after the Preds bafflingly dished him to Toronto. Perhaps the only squads happier than the Blues about Jokinen landing in St. Louis are the Kings and Islanders, who might finally be able to wipe away the egg from their faces after letting go of an all-time great like Jokinen back in the day.

Jokinen will be a UFA after this season, headlining the shopping lists of many NHL GMs. Stamkos has one more year for Tampa Bay at $7.5M before hitting the UFA ranks, at which point teams, wary of his declining production and band-aid boy status (more on those later), might need a bit of arm twisting or at least a bounce back 2015-16 in order to toss out a short term deal.

Luck-Based Metrics

Jokinen's 5×4 IPP for 2014-15 isn't included, since as part of the plan to keep him extra fresh for the playoffs, he's yet to log the 50+ minutes needed for it to be charted.

 

Season

Personal Shooting Percentage

PDO (5×5)

IPP (5×5)

IPP (5×4)

Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)

2014-15

16.0% (S.S.)

3.1% (O.J.)

1008 (S.S.)

1008 (O.J.)

73.1% (S.S.)

46.2% (O.J.)

85.0% (S.S.)

N/A (O.J.)

60.7% (S.S.)

46.7% (O.J.)

2013-14

20.2% (S.S.)

10.5% (O.J.)

1030 (S.S.)

988 (O.J.)

76.7% (S.S.)

77.5% (O.J.)

61.1% (S.S.)

60.0% (O.J.)

51.0% (S.S.)

46.8% (O.J.)

2012-13

18.5% (S.S.)

8.2% (O.J.)

996 (S.S.)

939 (O.J.)

76.9% (S.S.)

52.9% (O.J.)

76.5% (S.S.)

16.7% (O.J.)

54.1% (S.S.)

52.5% (O.J.)

2011-12

19.8% (S.S.)

10.3% (O.J.)

1024 (S.S.)

1010 (O.J.)

78.8% (S.S.)

56.9% (O.J.)

71.4% (S.S.)

73.3% (O.J.)

54.7% (S.S.)

47.9% (O.J.)

 

Looking at Stamkos' IPP numbers, you'd think he'd be on track for a career best season, rather than his worst output since his rookie year. To put this in better perspective, his IPP numbers indicate that for every 100 points scored while he's on the ice at 5×5 and 5×4 he's had a goal or an assist on 79% of them. Decreased production in the face of an increased percentage share of points means he's generating less overall offense despite the fact that he's still only 25 years old and supposed to be still improving.

And although Stamkos' Personal Shooting % is down a bit from his career average of 17.2%, his OZ% is up by well more than should be needed to balance out any effect that would have. And last but not least, his PDO is within normal range. All in all, troubling signs abound.

With Jokinen, what stands out for 2014-15 is his remarkably unlucky Personal Shooting %. How unlucky exactly? Only one forward (Tomas Kopecky) has both taken more shots and appeared in more games than Jokinen yet also has a lower personal shooting %. What's more – each of these other three seasons Jokinen had one or more majorly unlucky metrics, as in 2011-12 there was his 47.9% OZ%, while in 2012-13 it was his jaw-droppingly low PDO and 5×4 IPP, and in 2011-12 it was an even lower OZ%. Once he manages to avoid bad luck crossing his path, Jokinen should be able to coast back to 50+ points and could even surpass 60.

 

Ownership and Injuries

In Yahoo leagues, Stamkos is eligible as both a center (where he was drafted 2nd overall on average prior to the season) and RW (drafted 1st overall on average). And although he's still 100% owned in Yahoo leagues, he's now only 6th most valuable at center and 8th at RW. Thus, Stamkos has retained his ultra-high perceived value despite his actual value having slipped quite a bit, which is a bad combination. Conversely, Jokinen – eligible at center only – somehow escaped the draft radar of poolies and remains criminally unowned in 98% of leagues.

Jokinen played in 76+ games in every full season from 1999-2000 to 2013-14, making him one of only two NHLers (Patrick Marleau is the other) who can lay claim to the kind of consistent track record of good health poolies crave. In contrast, not only did Stamkos miss more than half the 2013-14 campaign due to a leg injury, but he's gone on record as saying that he might not ever truly be back to 100%.

Yet another major edge to Jokinen in these areas.

 

Who Wins? And Lessons to Be Learned.

Those who've made it this far no doubt realize this is an April Fools' Day ruse.

But despite that, I didn't want to abandon the mission of Cage Match to help educate poolies, which is why there are lessons to be learned from what you just read.

For one, although I definitely went overboard in talking down Stamkos, if you own him in a keeper you have genuine reason to be concerned. Whether because of the departure of Martin St. Louis, lingering effects of his leg injury, the emergence of Tyler Johnson, or a combination of these factors, what we're seeing from Stamkos now is not what was expected and is nowhere near his three season stretch from 2009-10 to 2011-12.

But unfortunately for Stamkos owners it also doesn't look like 2014-15 will be a blip in the radar, as he's been "luckier" than ever and his Ice Time is down – not a good combination at all. At this stage, it might be unrealistic to expect a return to 90 point territory for Stamkos, with roughly 45 goals and 40 assists perhaps being closer to his viable ceiling for the rest of his 20s and with there being a greater chance of him finishing with below point per game production than above, especially if scoring continues to be down overall.

As for Jokinen, while of course he's a well past his prime veteran who might not even earn an NHL deal as a UFA this summer, what I wrote shows that you can put – or at least try to put – a positive spin on nearly anything in fantasy hockey. It's best to keep that in mind when trading, as if you're looking to unload a player with Jokinen's subpar pedigree you need to find ways to point out things about him that can make him seem better than he really is. But you also need to be able to sniff out if a fellow poolie is trying to do the same to you before pulling the trigger on a deal.

Lastly, although true numbers don't lie, be sure to get to the actual data behind the numbers – the story behind the story, so to speak. For example, although Jokinen does have a 0.83 points per game scoring rate in the playoffs, that came via five points in six games. And while Jokinen did indeed tally two points against the Blues while he was still with Nashville this season, it was his only multi-point effort of the season. As for Stamkos, although his shorthanded Ice Time has been cut by more than half this season versus last, the difference is only 22 seconds (34 seconds last season, 12 for 2014-15).

Beyond that, be wary of things being glossed over, as often that's done to make it easier to (dis)prove a point. The most glaring examples here are Stamkos' still top tier goal scoring and the fact that Jokinen is now more often a healthy scratch than not. Long story short – it's indeed possible to stretch or distort the truth to make things sound a lot better or worse than they really are without outright lying.

Back to the normal Cage Match format next week. Until then, let this be a reminder to take anything you read today with a large grain of salt.

 

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