Top 10 Sell-High Players (2016)

by Tom Collins on December 12, 2016

The Top 10 players you should "sell high" on. These players are overvalued right now…

 

Sell high. Buy low.

It sounds so simple. But it’s always tough to trade away players when they are playing so well. We convince ourselves that this unprecedented hot streak can last for the whole year. But it usually doesn’t last. That’s why the window to sell high is so small. Look at Marian Hossa. He started the season with 17 points in 18 games. That was your best chance to deal him. Now he has just three points in his last 11 games. His value is low now and you can’t get the same return you could two weeks ago. Kevin Hayes is another good example. After starting off with 19 points in 22 games, Hayes now has one point in his last seven games.

Below you’ll find 10 players that are peaking as sell highs. I’m not advocating you have to sell them. Just that if you want to, the value of these players will never be higher. Remember, it’s sell high, not giveaway. If you’re not comfortable with dealing these players, keep them. If you’re not getting a fair return, keep them. Also, these projections are for one-year leagues. It would be tougher to get rid of some of these players in a keeper.

 

 

10. Wayne Simmonds

Simmonds is on pace for 40 goals and 74 points. Both would easily be career highs. His time on ice is up two minutes a game from last year. He’s on the second line but the top power play unit. He’s got a lot going for him. But how often do 28-year-olds have career years? His shooting percentage is higher than normal so he’s due for a regression. Just keep in mind that a sell-high for Simmonds is mostly in points leagues. In leagues that count shots, PIM and hits, his value is even higher and it could be too tough to get fair value for him.

 

9. Marcus Johansson

After a bit of a slow start to the season, Johansson has been scorching lately with eight points in seven games. He’s now on pace for 36 goals and 64 points. That would be career highs by 16 goals and 18 points. The main reason is his insane shooting percentage of 24.5 per cent. But 21 points in 27 games sounds enticing, and could be alluring to the right trade partner.

 

8. Cam Atkinson

A number of Blue Jackets could have made this list. The team is third in goals for per game and first in power play percentage, and it feels like the whole team is due for a regression. But Atkinson most of all as he’s on pace for 85 points and is 12th in the league in points. His power play time on ice and overall time on ice is only 20 seconds higher than last year. He could be this year’s breakout 70-point guy. But if you believe he will finish with 70 points exactly, that means a regression of 0.3 points per game.

 

7. Evgeni Malkin

The more games Malkin plays without an injury, the more fire you’re playing with. Malkin always starts off the season hot (30 points in 28 games this year) before slowing down in the second half and then missing a bunch of time, usually during the critical head-to-head playoffs. Last year he played just nine games in February, March and April combined. It may be time to look into dealing him if you can get the right deal. Just keep in mind you won’t get an elite player in return because of Malkin’s injury history.

 

6. Tyler Seguin

Tyler Seguin has proven to be a better first-half player than second-half. Here are Seguin’s stats for the last five seasons:

2015-16: 50 points in the first 41 games (1.22 PPG), followed by 23 in 31 (0.74 PPG)

2014-15: 37 points in the first 40 games (1.18 PPG), followed by 30 in 31 (0.97 PPG)

2013-14: 41 points in the first 42 games (0.98 PPG), followed by 43 in 38 (1.13 PPG)

2012-13: 19 points in the first 22 games (0.86 PPG), followed by 13 in 26 (0.50 PPG)

2011-12: 36 points in the first 36 games (1.00 PPG), followed by 31 in 45 (0.69 PPG)

In four of the last five seasons, his numbers have dropped off dramatically in the second half. This year he has 29 points in 30 games. It might be smart to start looking into what you can get in return before the second half hits.

 

5. Jakob Silfverberg

This is a 50-50 call for most fantasy GMs. Silfverberg is on pace for 57 points. His previous high was 39 points. He’s getting some power play time and his overall ice time is up about 1:20 from last year. His shooting percentage isn’t that far off from normal. But we’ve been there with Silfverberg before. We expect him to have a great breakout season and he always disappoints. He goes on crazy hot streaks and freezing cold streaks. It’s too hard to trust him unless he proves he can consistently put up points over a couple of seasons.

 

4. Kevin Shattenkirk

Another player that has a tendency to start hot and cool down as the season moves on. Shattenkirk has 19 points in 30 games and is fourth in the league for points among defensemen. Last year, Shattenkirk had 24 points at the 30-game mark. The year before he had 26 points in 30 games. And the year before that, had 22 points in the first 30 games. You would think that with all those hot starts, Shattenkirk would be a shoo-in to reach 50 points. But his career high is 45. And in each of the last three seasons, he’s had either 44 or 45 points. If you believe the same thing will happen this year, that means he’ll only get 26 points in the last 52 games. He’s already slowing down with zero points in his last five games so his sell-high window is closing.

 

3. Andrei Markov

I’ll admit that I am very shocked at Markov’s production this season. I figured his point total was tied to P.K. Subban. Plus, Markov had a horrible World Cup of Hockey. But here we are, 28 games into the season and Markov on pace for 59 points. That would be his most since 2008-09. Let’s not forget that Markov is the 10th-oldest player in the league and has shown a tendency to slow down as the season wears on.

 

2. Ryan Kesler

Kesler is a top candidate for bounce-back player of the year. His points-per-game pace is his best since 2010-11, he already has seven power play goals and his plus-eight is already the third highest of his career. Much of that is because of his career-high shooting percentage of 17.4 per cent. It’s helping that he is playing on the top power play unit (11 of his 24 points have come with the man advantage). But there’s plenty of doubt that Kesler can keep up the 71-point pace that he is currently on.

 

1. Peter Budaj

The initial prognosis back in the middle of October was that Jonathan Quick was expected to be out about three months. We’re now at the two-month period for his injury. Peter Budaj has turned into an adequate replacement with a 13-7-2 record, a 2.18 GAA and a .910 SV%. He still has about a month before Quick comes back. But do you really want to wait until Quick is returning and Budaj loses all fantasy value? You might need to move quick on this one.