Dave Cameron canned

Neil Parker

2016-04-12

Dave Cameron - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

With Dave Cameron out as bench boss, what does it mean for Erik Karlsson and the Ottawa Senators?

 

The Ottawa Senators fired head coach Dave Cameron and the rest of the coaching staff Tuesday.

After overachieving down the stretch and clinching a playoff berth last year, expectations were too high heading into the 2015-16 season, and Ottawa stumbled to 38-35-9 with a fifth-worst 2.95 goals allowed per game. Additionally, the Senators allowed a league-worst 3.32 goals per road game with a 17-21-3 record.

Injuries were an issue for Ottawa, as Kyle Turris left a huge gap up the middle, and he was likely playing hurt through his final 32 games given his two-goal, six-helper return with a minus-22 rating during the stretch.

Andrew Hammond's late-season run (20-1-2 with a .941 save percentage and 1.79 goals-against average) during the 14-15 season saved the campaign, or at the very least buoyed the Senators enough to clinch a playoff berth. He couldn't last a playoff series as the No. 1, though, and Craig Anderson is nothing more than a middle-tier starter, so the the success last season should have been seen as a mirage and not a sign of things to come.

The real issue in Ottawa is the core after Erik Karlsson. Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris, Dion Phaneuf and Marc Methot aren't good enough hockey players to build around. Mark Stone is excellent, but he isn't a top-tier offensive contributor, either. Turris likely could be grouped with Stone, but the pivot will enter his age-27 season next year, which has him likely in the last stages of his offensive prime.

We'll just leave Mike Hoffman alone for now. This says enough.

Karlsson's possession numbers are otherworldly, and every Senators regular had a significant CorsiFor percentage drop when apart from him. Add Karlsson's point-per-game season, and finding a way to win before his contract is up following the 2018-19 campaign should be priority No. 1 for the Seantors. Given the current state of the club, it is difficult envisioning him reupping with another contract.

Unfortunately, the weak supporting cast behind the Karlsson engine will make a playoff berth the likely best-case scenario for the next bench boss, too.

From a fantasy perspective there likely won't be significant ripples.

📢 advertisement:

Mika Zibanejad still has work to do to prove he is a legitimate and consistent offensive contributor, but another small step forward is likely. The manner in which the organization values Hoffman is concerning, but the new coaching staff will hopefully help him be assessed properly, and a 30-30 season should be a lock.

Bobby Ryan's inconsistency is a killer in weekly head-to-head formats, and he appears to have hit a plateau as a 50-point scorer. There is still value, but he doesn't enter the priority conversation.

Turris and Stone are reliable as supporting pieces, but Turris is likely best viewed as a low-end starting pivot in most leagues. Phaneuf's similar, as his cross-category potential is intriguing, and he should improve slightly on his eight-point output through 20 games after landing in Ottawa.

The wildcard is Curtis Lazar. He'll enter Year 3, but is still playing too far down the depth chart to be an impact fantasy option. Will that change with a new coach behind the bench? Is Lazar headed for a breakout fantasy season with a run at 40 points, or is he going to just take another small jump to 30 points?

Also, it is unlikely Zach Smith repeats his 25-goal showing. And while we're on the subject, where did that come from?

In net, Craig Anderson will be 35 next season and owns limited upside as a low-end No. 2, and that is likely a best-case outcome. The save and win volume will be there, but it'll likely be accompanied with mediocre ratios.

The big question with the coaching change is how it'll impact Karlsson's value, and whether or not the Norris hopeful will continue to log huge minutes and flirt with another point-per-game return.

Karlsson played 28:58 per night this season, and losing even a minute a game could be the difference in five points over the season, potentially, at least. Regardless, though, he should be a consideration in the first round of most drafts next season and only Brent Burns is close to challenging Karlsson for top billing at the position.

This won't be a standalone move during the offseason, so expect a few more shakeups in Ottawa.

 

5 Comments

  1. Steve 2016-04-12 at 11:25

    “The real issue in Ottawa is the core after Erik Karlsson. Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris, Dion Phaneuf and Marc Methot aren’t good enough hockey players to build around. Mark Stone is excellent, but he isn’t a top-tier offensive contributor, either. ”

    Not an accurate or fair statement. The core is larger than that. Even if it wasn’t, I don’t really understand your comment as most teams don’t have a core built up of more than five or six like you just mentioned.

    Mark Stone is the Sens best offensive forward and is a top-tier offensive contributor. If you disagree, you haven’t been paying attention. He was Top 20 in points before getting hurt in late March. He’s been around 75 point pace since Jan 1, 2015.

    Mika Zibanejad had 51 points and has solidified himself as a 2C in the league. Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a legit 3C and can play 2C at times. Clarke MacArthur is back from injury for the start of next season. These players are absolutely good enough to build around.

    The Sens may add two legit blue chippers in Colin White and Thomas Chabot. They don’t really have a lot of holes but should add one Top 6 forward and a bottom pair D.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-04-12 at 11:34

      I agree with Steve. Karlsson is an elite Norris-caliber defenseman and Stone is a Top 25 NHL scorer. You can build around those two. But Neil is right in the sense that you need to add one more of that caliber

    • Neil Parker 2016-04-12 at 12:10

      My definition of top-tier scorer doesn’t extend to top 20 or 25 finishes in points, it is just semantics, though. Stone is an excellent player. I agree he is a building block. 

      I’m fine with Zibanejad, too. But look at the one-two punches up the middle for the best teams in the league over the past few seasons. Chicago is the only team recently that has been able to succeed without two excellent centers, and Patrick Kane plays on that second line. Every current playoff team has a better combination of first and second line centers than Ottawa, except maybe Minnesota.

      If you want to compare Stone and Zibanejad to the entire league, they’re fine and will help push Ottawa towards another playoff appearance. But the Senators are a ways away from being anything more than a middling team. And given the expectations of the brass, I analyzed the situation according to their goals. Looking at a team focused on a rebuild would be less critical.

    • Masta_Byte 2016-04-12 at 16:08

      Many people would argue that Bobby Ryan’s paycheque is the reason he makes that list, not what he has been doing on the ice.

      • Neil Parker 2016-04-12 at 16:31

        Yes, Ottawa has committed to Ryan as a franchise player, and he isn’t.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
JORDAN GREENWAY BUF
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
JOONAS KORPISALO OTT
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PHI Players
23.9 OWEN TIPPETT TRAVIS KONECNY MORGAN FROST
22.0 RYAN POEHLING GARNET HATHAWAY TYSON FOERSTER
18.0 SCOTT LAUGHTON JOEL FARABEE BOBBY BRINK

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: