The much-discussed three-team deal that was thought to be just a rumor actually went down late Sunday between Colorado, Ottawa, and Nashville. Details below:
To Ottawa: Matt Duchene
To Nashville: Kyle Turris
Duchene finally gets his wish with a move out of Colorado, while Turris was immediately handed a six-year contract worth $36 million from his new team.
There are many takes on who won and lost the deal, but instead we’ll focus on the fantasy implications of the deal, starting with the player who drove this deal.
Duchene was at one time the Avs’ first-line center, but both his production (41 points in 77 games last season) and his role had been reduced. He was eighth on the Avalanche in power-play time per game and ninth in overall icetime per game. He lined up with Nail Yakupov and Alexander Kerfoot for much of the season and was even on a line with Sven Andrighetto and Rocco Grimaldi recently. So there is room for his fantasy value to improve in Ottawa. With 10 points in 14 games, Duchene was on pace for around 60 points, which seems like a reasonable projection with the move to Ottawa.
This represents kind of a lateral move by the Senators, with other Sens’ forwards not likely affected much by the deal. Duchene should take on the role left by Turris as a slight upgrade at best to Turris at the center position. Turris had mainly played on a line with Zack Smith and Ryan Dzingel, so it’s possible that Duchene could slot into that role, which wouldn’t represent any kind of upgrade over Yakupov or Kerfoot. Even better for Duchene would be if his left-handed shot could pass to Mark Stone or Bobby Ryan on the right wing. But we’ll wait and see where Duchene is placed, but his owners should at least be relieved that this deal is finally done and he can now focus on moving on with his career.
Turris should fit in as a second-line center in Nashville, making the Predators deep down the middle (Ryan Johansen, Turris, Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok, Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau). The move would move the latter three down the depth chart, with Bonino possibly standing to lose the most if he is bumped off the second unit power-play (unless a defenseman is moved off instead).
As a center whose career production is slightly below Johansen’s (0.67 Pts/GP for Turris vs. 0.73 Pts/GP for Johansen over the past five seasons), Turris could move into a first-line role if Peter Laviolette wished to break up the top line of Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson. Turris’ production shouldn’t be affected a whole lot by the deal should he slot in on the second line as expected.
Meanwhile, the Avalanche receive a nice haul of prospects and picks. Girard, an offensive-minded blueliner with loads of fantasy potential, has scored a goal and added two assists in just five games. The Avalanche will need to decide over the next few games whether to send him back to junior or keep him for the entire season as a possible third-pairing defenseman. But with the Avs not as deep on defense as the Preds, it’s more likely that Girard sticks around, although that may not necessarily be beneficial for his development. View his Dobber Prospects profile.
It's possible that Kamenev takes the roster spot left by Duchene, as he had scored eight points in nine games in the AHL this season. However, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be on the Avalanche this season, let alone right away. View his Dobber Prospects profile.
Bowers will stay in the NCAA this season and probably beyond. View his Dobber Prospects profile.
Duchene was pulled from Sunday’s game during the first period, so we may have been given a preview as to how the Avs’ lines will be affected. NCAA free agent signing Alexander Kerfoot played a total of 20:49 on Sunday, which included time on the first-unit power play with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen. Kerfoot scored two third-period goals taking Duchene’s place with Andrighetto and Grimaldi, so his fantasy value could receive a real boost with this move. Kerfoot is worth a speculative grab in deeper leagues at the moment as a result.
Players this helps, in order:
Girard (single-season value)
Players this hurts, in order:
Other players remain largely unaffected by the deal.
Fantasy owners are weighing in on the deal on the Forum. Give your take here!
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