Frozen Pool Forensics: 2017 Trade Deadline Movers (Part Two)

by Cam Robinson on February 24, 2017

In our continued look at some potential players on the move this deadline season, Frozen Pool Forensics will dig deep to find out how a player has been doing thus far and what a potential move could mean to his fantasy value.

 

**

 

Kevin Shattenkirk

 

There are very few players of Shattenkirk’s ilk that become available at the NHL trade deadline. The list of reasons that this may happen is usually short: the contract is expiring and the current organization assumes they can longer retain the asset. This is the case in St. Louis this season and after losing David Backes and Troy Brower for nada a year ago, the Blues can hardly afford to let another asset walk without cashing in on futures.

 

Helping (or hindering… depending on how you look at it) matters is the fact that he is having a fantastic season and helping the team win crucial games down the stretch.

 

The Blues are placing their top offensive defender in situations to succeed. This is evidenced by his currently seeing 3:09 per night as the lone defender on the top power play unit – good for a 63 percent share of the team’s five on four ice, as well as starting 57.5 percent of his shifts in the fun end of the rink.

 

Advanced Stats

 

Year

PDO

5 on 5 SH%

Off. Zone Start %

PTS/60

IPP

2016-17

993

8.55

57.55

2.1

61.8

2015-16

980

6.61

52.91

1.6

54.3

2014-15

1027

9.36

55.36

2.1

54.3

2013-14

995

7.83

57.79

1.6

48.9

2012-13

1003

7.59

57.17

1.3

48.9

2011-12

1020

7.27

53.56

1.5

52.3

2010-11

1005

9.06

58.11

1.8

50.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The former 14th overall selection from 2007 has been making good on his opportunities thus far. He’s scored 11 goals and totaled 42 points in 60 games – good for a 57-point pace and is closing in on his career-high of 45 points set back in 2013-14.

 

To put things into perspective on how deadly Shattenkirk has been on the power play, over the past three seasons, he sits second behind just Nicklas Backstrom in points per 60 at five-on-four.

 

Despite being known as one of the league’s premier power play quarterbacks; Shattenkirk has seemed to run into road blocks in each of his previous six career seasons. On a given year, he’s seemed to have battled injuries and/or inconsistencies and has thus remained down the list of the top scoring players from the backend. So far in 2016-17, he’s avoided both those issues.

 

Some small areas of concern are that after seeing three consecutive seasons of improving shot rates – 2.3/game in 2013-14; 2.4/game in 2014-15; 2.5/game in 2015-16, Shattenkirk has dipped below two shots per contest thus far and has seen his personal and team conversion rates rise.

 

This is likely to see some negative regression.

 

It’s difficult to imagine Shattenkirk’s fantasy value improving with a trade to another squad. Few teams boast as quality a top power play unit as the sixth ranked Blues do, but an increase on his 19:54 per contest – down 2:30 from the last two seasons, could help boost his even strength production.

 

Alex Pietrangelo or Colton Parayko seem destined to see their stock rise as the obvious options to replace Shattenkirk on the Blues man-advantage and an uptick in their own even-strength ice.

 

 

 

Matt Duchene

 

We’ve all heard about the rumoured price for the Avalanche to move Duchene: two young pieces – one being a defenseman, and a first-round pick. Steep even for a player with his pedigree. We can squabble all day about the potential return and who might be able to afford it, but what we need to know is, is this a player still capable of pushing a near-point-per-game output or are we looking at a more secondary fantasy asset moving forward?

 

The 26-year-old has had more ebbs and flows than your traditional number one pivot. He’s remained relatively healthy over his eight seasons in the league but has seen his point-per-game output bounce all over the place, ranging from a high of 0.99 in 2013-14 to a paltry 0.48 in his third season in the league. As it stands today, Duchene is on pace to match his rookie season output at 0.68.

 

It’s a wild ride when gleaning Duchene’s counting numbers.

 

Now, we can probably forgive him for his poor performance thus far in 2016-17. The Colorado Avalanche are a dreadful team – one of the worst in the last decade by point percentages, and it’s never easy to put up numbers in that type of situation. Duchene gets buried with defensive zone draws and receives well-below-par save percentages from his goaltenders. This has led to a putrid 968 PDO that would surely see some positive regression in a new home.

 

Advanced Stats

 

Year

PDO

5 on 5 SH%

Off. Zone Start %

PTS/60

IPP

2016-17

968

7.26

46.37

2.2

81.8

2015-16

1014

8.47

57.36

2.5

72.8

2014-15

1030

10.25

46.73

2.2

72.8

2013-14

1002

9.45

49

3.2

73.3

2012-13

987

8.78

52.47

2.6

78.7

2011-12

985

5.52

56.96

1.8

77.8

2010-11

1018

10.12

52.84

2.7

70.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some further red flags to his play are his continually dropping shot rates which peaked during that fantastic ’13-14 campaign at 3.06/game down to his 2.34/game this season. Despite the fewer shots on net, he’s converting at a higher rate than his career norms at just under 13 percent. That is a number that he’s shown capable of sustaining but the dip in shot attempts makes it more difficult.

 

All this is to say that a shift from the only organization he’s ever known would assuredly result in some further opportunities to produce and likely better talent to be surrounded with. A trade to a team like Nashville or Montreal, who need an impact player down the middle, would likely produce a spot amongst a deep top six forward group and a slot on a far better top power play unit.

 

Anything had to be better than the rotating door of wingers he’s had to deal with this season.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

24.3%

DUCHENE,MATT – LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – NIETO,MATTHEW

21.8%

DUCHENE,MATT – GRIGORENKO,MIKHAIL – NIETO,MATTHEW

20.7%

DUCHENE,MATT – MACKINNON,NATHAN – RANTANEN,MIKKO

17.9%

DUCHENE,MATT – GRIGORENKO,MIKHAIL – SODERBERG,CARL

15.3%

COMEAU,BLAKE – DUCHENE,MATT – RANTANEN,MIKKO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duchene is still in the peak years of production; albeit trending towards the plateau period, and has the pedigree, speed and skills to greatly help a contending NHL team and fantasy owners for their stretch drive. Some obvious concerns on trying to make a deal for him before he’s dealt is he may stick around Colorado and if he does get moved, he’ll be faced with the usual difficulties that players go through upon transitioning cities – especially doing so for the first time in their career.

 

Buying now would be a calculated risk and the reward could be great. For keeper leagues, seeing him get out of the Mile-High City appears the best bet to regaining his spot amongst some of the better fantasy options.

 

 

Patrick Eaves

 

It’s not too often we see a player hit their career-highs at age 32, but that’s exactly what Patrick Eaves is all about this season. In fact, he surpassed his point peak awhile back and with his 21st goal of the season last week, set a new mark there as well.

 

So, what has gone right for the former Ottawa Senator first rounder from the legendary 2003 class?

 

Well, for one thing he’s been seeing over 80 percent of his even strength ice time next to Jamie Benn and/or Tyler Seguin and on top of that, he’s been a mainstay on the Stars’ top power play unit.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

41.6%

BENN,JAMIE – EAVES,PATRICK – SEGUIN,TYLER

27.1%

BENN,JAMIE – EAKIN,CODY – EAVES,PATRICK

12.3%

EAVES,PATRICK – ROUSSEL,ANTOINE – SEGUIN,TYLER

11.4%

EAKIN,CODY – EAVES,PATRICK – ROUSSEL,ANTOINE

7.6%

EAVES,PATRICK – SHARP,PATRICK – SPEZZA,JASON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That new-found time on the man advantage has yielded 16 power play points; 11 of which are goals which ties him with Sidney Crosby for a share of third most in the league. Eaves has found a home as a net front presence amongst some all-world talent and has been cashing in on last year of a very affordable one-million-dollar cap hit.

 

Once considered nothing more than a capable bottom six forward, this season has seen Eaves back shooting the puck with more regularity – averaging 2.6 per contest and making a home in the blue paint has led to what appears to be a sustainable 13.6 percent conversion rate. The last two injury-shortened campaigns have witnessed him maintain near or above that total.

 

NHL Stats – Last 5 Years

 

SEASON

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

+/-

PIM

Shots

SH%

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

FOW

FO%

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

2016-2017

59

21

16

37

0.63

-10

16

154

13.6

60

11

16

0

32

2

50.0

03:11

56.1

4.3

16:39

27.5

2015-2016

54

11

6

17

0.31

-5

27

86

12.8

70

5

7

0

20

3

27.3

02:02

38.2

6.6

12:58

21.4

2014-2015

47

14

13

27

0.57

11

8

91

15.4

69

6

9

0

27

2

40.0

01:54

31.7

5.0

13:43

22.5

2013-2014

30

2

3

5

0.17

-7

2

53

3.8

43

1

3

0

5

7

46.7

01:00

16.5

20.3

11:16

18.3

2012-2013

34

2

6

8

0.24

-1

4

42

4.8

40

0

1

0

11

7

63.6

00:16

4.3

16.9

10:35

17.3

Average

82

18

16

34

0.42

-4

21

156

11.7

103

8

13

0

35

8

45.7

01:54

32.7

9.3

13:30

22.2

 

 

For those of you who have cashed in on the veteran’s surprise production, you may be wondering, ‘is there a better spot for Eaves to play in than what he sees in Big D?’ The answer is no.

 

Even if the team who trades for Eaves places him in a situation that tailors to his new-found offensive game AND slots him in on a top power play unit – both major question marks – it’s unlikely he continues to produce at such a rate.

 

It’s far more likely he ends up in a middle-six role with some second unit power play time and stunts the potential for padding his counting stats heading into free agency.

 

There is one aspect that we haven’t mentioned yet though…

 

 

 

***

 

 

Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I often give unsolicited fantasy advice that I’m sure at least someone is listening to.