Frozen Pool Forensics: Patrick Kane

by Cam Robinson on December 18, 2015

Now that his streak is over can Patrick Kane sustain his otherworldly scoring pace?

Well that sure was fun. Patrick Kane’s point streak finally came to a halt Tuesday night against the Colorado Avalanche. After 26 games, the juice had finally run out after some last-minute empty-net points and even a nice little home-ice ‘third assist’ a few nights earlier. The impressive streak began on October 17th with an empty-net goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets and became the most talked about topic in hockey for nearly two months.

Let’s rattle off some impressive numbers from the streak before taking a closer look at the sustainability of Kane’s production and what we can expect from him throughout the remaining schedule.

16 goals, 24 assists, a plus-nine rating, 10 multi-point games, 86 shots on goal, 15 points with the man-advantage, a seven-game goal scoring streak and not a single multi-goal outing.  The Blackhawks managed to go 15-7-4 during that span and at the time of this writing, Kane had built himself a four-point lead in the race for the Art Ross trophy.

Taking a look at Kane’s Player Profile Page we can see what his numbers look like for the entirety of this season. Kane has played almost exclusively with Russian newcomers, Artem Anisimov and Calder favourite, Artemi Panarin – both at even strength and on the power play.
 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

51.03%

EV

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI

5.91%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TOEWS,JONATHAN

4.68%

EV

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO

4.21%

PP

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI

3.26%

PP

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – SHAW,ANDREW – TOEWS,JONATHAN

2.03%

EV

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – KRUGER,MARCUS

1.89%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – TOEWS,JONATHAN

 

Of Kane’s 46 points, at least one of his new running-mates have been on the ice for 39 of them.

 

Total Points for Patrick Kane : 46

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI

16

34.78%

PP

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI

7

15.22%

PP

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – SHAW,ANDREW – TOEWS,JONATHAN

4

8.7%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TOEWS,JONATHAN

3

6.52%

EV

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO

2

4.35%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – TOEWS,JONATHAN

2

4.35%

PP

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TOEWS,JONATHAN

1

2.17%

EV

HOSSA,MARIAN – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TOEWS,JONATHAN

1

2.17%

PP

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO

1

2.17%

EV

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – HOSSA,MARIAN – KANE,PATRICK

1

2.17%

PP

HOSSA,MARIAN – KANE,PATRICK – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO – TOEWS,JONATHAN

1

2.17%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – KERO,TANNER – PANARIN,ARTEMI

1

2.17%

PP

HOSSA,MARIAN – KANE,PATRICK – TOEWS,JONATHAN

1

2.17%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – SHAW,ANDREW – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO

1

2.17%

PP

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TERAVAINEN,TEUVO – TOEWS,JONATHAN

1

2.17%

EV

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – SHAW,ANDREW

1

2.17%

EV

DANO,MARKO – KANE,PATRICK – KERO,TANNER

1

2.17%

EV

DESJARDINS,ANDREW – KANE,PATRICK – KRUGER,MARCUS

1

2.17%

Through 32 games, Kane has posted a slightly high personal shooting percentage of 17.6 – this would represent a three percent increase over his highest ‘full season’ percentage. I put full season in quotes because he hasn’t played more than 69 games in a campaign since 2011-12. This number will likely creep down to the 15 percent range, but should still net him his first 40 goal campaign.

Kane’s five-on-five shooting percentage sits at a reasonable 11.11 percent; his 108 shots represent a career-high pace (277) and his 16 power play points are pacing him for a league leading 41. For context, the last two seasons have seen the power-play points leader have 37 (Claude Giroux) and 44 (Nicklas Backstrom), so this number is certainly achievable.

The former first overall pick is playing an average of 21:13 per contest – close to a minute and half higher than last season and a full minute above his career average. On top of that, he is seeing 3:11 of power-play time per game, and starting 64.89 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. That seems like a large chunk of time starting out in the opposition’s zone, but that number represents only his fifth highest percentage in the last six seasons.

So what can we expect from Kane going forward? This is a player who has made his home hovering around the point-per-game mark – a career 0.99 point-per-game average. The safe assumption would be that he returns to his career-norm and will get right around 50 points in the remaining 50 games. That would be a good for a 96-point season; a new career-high and a legitimate shot at the league scoring crown.

There is another possibility here… that this is a career season for Kane and not just a career first half. If that’s the case, then maybe he can sustain something near his 1.43 point-per-game pace. Let’s split the difference and call it a 1.2 point-per-game pace for the remaining 50 games – giving him 60 more points. That would bring him up into the triple-digit club for a total of 106.

Here is a player who has just turned 27 years old, is finally playing with consistent and competent line mates, and is dangerous every time he steps on the ice. Health permitting, 50 goals and 100 points is within reach for the crafty winger and with it, a shot at being the first American born player to lead the league in scoring.  

 

Projected point-per-game outlook for the remaining schedule: 1.0 – 1.3

 

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