Frozen Pool Forensics: Regression Expectations, Part Two

by Cam Robinson on September 9, 2016

This week's Frozen Pool Forensics is the second part of the series in expected regressions. 

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We’re back this week to feature a few more candidates who are destined to disappoint their fantasy owners. Whether it be due to an unsustainable scoring rate, new competition, a change in role or that darn father time catching up, regression comes for us all, so put a little asterisk next to these guys come draft day and beware of buying too high.

 

Part one of this series can be viewed here

 

We’ll also be trying out some of the awesome new features from Dobber’s Frozen Pool Report Generator page that is now a comprehensive resource for all your stat digging needs.

 

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Artemi Panarin

 

Average point-per-game output last season: 0.96

 

The darling of everyone’s fantasy league last season, Artemi Panarin came out of nowhere (see: KHL) and took the NHL by storm. A classic late-bloomer, the undrafted and soon-to-be 25-year-old took his time establishing himself as a prolific producer over in Russia before crossing the pond into what can only be described as the ideal situation for any rookie.

 

What Went Right in 2015-16?

 

Pretty well everything. Panarin found immediate chemistry opposite one of the most skilled and dynamic players in the league, Patrick Kane. Together the two roasted the opposition to a combined 183 total points – 69 of which came with the man-advantage.

 

Even Strength Line Production (53)

Pts

%Total

Line Combination

34

64.2%

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI

3

5.7%

ANISIMOV,ARTEM – PANARIN,ARTEMI

2

3.8%

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – TOEWS,JONATHAN

2

3.8%

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI – SHAW,ANDREW

1

1.9%

KANE,PATRICK – PANARIN,ARTEMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Calder Trophy winner produced 77 points, which ended up being the ninth best total, and kicked in a hefty little performance bonus for the slick winger. His 3.1 points per 60 minutes represented the eighth most by any player suiting up for 40 or more games and

 

Why He’ll Regress

 

It’s usually pretty safe to predict a regression for a sophomore (something about a slump…), but we’re looking at a seasoned pro. He played 263 games in the Russian top league and now a full NHL season under his belt. His 16 percent conversion rate is high, but not unworldly compared to other snipers around the league, and while he did start over 75 percent of his shifts in the fun end of the rink, that should be expected to continue.

 

What is of concern is how he finished the season. He closed out 2015-16 by scoring five goals and 13 points in the final five contests. Before that run he had accrued 64 points in 75 games (0.85 points-per-game). If he maintained that pace over the final week of the season, he would have finished with 68 points in 80 games. While he did earn all of those points, he also showed up just in time for Kane to produce at a career-high rate, and it’s difficult to expect a replication there.

 

While some forecasters have Panarin improving into the 80-84-point range, the numbers favour a more modest decline into the 68-70-point range. Still solid value, but not a top 10 forward to own. 

 

 

Drew Doughty

 

Average point-per-game output the last three seasons: 0.55

 

Controversial Norris Trophy win? Maybe, but it has long been known that Doughty is a superb blueliner, and a worthy owner of such an award. Maybe not against a guy who just put up 82 points, but I digress.

 

Either way, the former second overall selection from the 2008 draft had a fantastic statistical season on both sides of the puck and re-solidified himself among the top-end fantasy option once again.

 

But is Doughty ready to consistently hang with the top 10 scoring defenders in the game? The numbers would suggest no.

 

What Went Right in 2015-16?

 

Doughty reeled off 14 goals and 51 points in a full 82 game schedule. That total represents the second time he’s broke the 50-point barrier and is his best mark since a career high 59-point sophomore campaign. He produced those points on the back of a very productive power play experience where he posted 24 points, good for eighth most by defensemen.

 

He looked fluid and confident leading the Kings through a strong season.

 

Why He’ll Regress

 

Those great power play numbers come with a catch though, as his luck-based metrics were sky-high with the man-advantage.

 

Doughty produced a staggering power play IPP (individual point percentage – basically the percentage of times that a player factored in on a goal scored) of 88.5 percent. That is 35 percentage points higher than his 2014-15 season and a runaway (and unsustainable) career-high.

 

He took around the same number of shots as usual (197) but his 7.1 conversion rate was a five-year high and nice jump on the 3.3 percent from the year prior.

 

NHL Stats – Last Four Years

SEASON

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

+/-

PIM

Shots

SH%

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

FOW

FO%

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

2015-2016

82

14

37

51

0.62

24

52

197

7.1

125

9

24

0

105

0

 

03:04

65.3

51.5

28:01

46.1

2014-2015

81

7

38

45

0.56

2

56

214

3.3

151

1

16

0

142

0

0.0

03:28

68.4

53.3

28:58

47.6

2013-2014

78

10

27

37

0.47

17

64

177

5.6

180

6

17

0

91

0

 

03:54

64.4

42.8

25:43

42.2

2012-2013

48

6

16

22

0.46

2

36

114

5.3

128

3

10

0

46

0

 

03:03

58.6

39.8

26:24

43.4

Average

82

10

33

44

0.54

13

59

199

5.3

166

5

19

0

109

0

0.0

03:24

64.8

47.5

27:23

45.0

 

 

As outlined above, his luck-based metrics are due to regress back to the mean, resulting in him likely showing up to shoot around five percent and score between seven and 10 goals. The Kings are a team getting a bit long in the tooth and just lost a formidable net-front presence in Milan Lucic this offseason. It’s not a stretch to imagine their power play rates slip from the eighth best in the league as it was a year ago. Even if it doesn’t, its unlikely Doughty is a part of nearly nine out of every ten power play goals.

 

Doughty is still a strong option as a third defenseman on your team, but expecting him to replicate a 50-plus point season will cost you more than you bargain for. Draft for 40 points and be happy if he tops 45.

 

 

 

Anthony Duclair

 

Average point-per-game output the last two seasons: 0.52

 

Anthony Duclair has been a bit of a polarizing figure in his short professional career. Blessed with high-level ability, he slipped to the third round of the 2013 entry draft due to some questions about his off-ice commitment. After making the Rangers out of camp as a rookie, he was sent back to junior, and then dealt to Arizona as part of the Keith Yandle trade. He now forms a part of a very young and talented nucleus in the desert.

 

What Went Right in 2015-16?

 

As a 20-year-old competing in his first full NHL season, 20 goals and 44 points on a non-playoff team is a wildly successful season. He formed strong chemistry with top line centre Martin Hanzel at even-strength, and looked great next to Max Domi on the power play. His 2.3 points per 60 minutes is especially strong as he saw just over 14 minutes per contest (14:23).

 

Advanced Stats

Year

PDO

5 on 5 SH%

Off. Zone Start %

PTS/60

2015-16

1048

10.98

60.9

2.3

2014-15

1066

10.39

60.42

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

Even-Strength Line Production (32)

Pts

%Total

Line Combination

10

31.3%

DOMI,MAX – DUCLAIR,ANTHONY – HANZAL,MARTIN

9

28.1%

DUCLAIR,ANTHONY – HANZAL,MARTIN – RIEDER,TOBIAS

5

15.6%

DUCLAIR,ANTHONY – TANGUAY,ALEX – VERMETTE,ANTOINE

2

6.3%

DOMI,MAX – DUCLAIR,ANTHONY – TIKHONOV,VIKTOR

1

3.1%

DOAN,SHANE – DOMI,MAX – DUCLAIR,ANTHONY – TIKHONOV,VIKTOR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why He’ll Regress

 

Duclair had an awful lot go right last season. He scored 20 goals on just 105 shots, good for a 19 percent conversion rate. Pretty darn high, especially for such a low shot total. His even-strength shooting percentage of 11 is also sitting at a likely unsustainable level. In addition, Duclair was the benefactor of his teammates finishing off plays. Of his 14 even-strength assists, 43 percent came via the secondary variety.

 

On top of it being difficult to replicate those numbers, Duclair is also going to face some more competition for his prime ice next season as Radim Vrbata is back for another go around in Arizona, and youngsters Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak are banging on the door.

 

Duclair will need to prove he can produce and sustain his own offense before being considered more than just a complimentary forward.

 

 

Stats Courtesy of:

Dobber’s Frozen Pool

Corsica Hockey

Hockey-Reference

 

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Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I often give unsolicited fantasy advice that I’m sure someone is listening to.