Frozen Pool Forensics: Tyler Seguin

by Cam Robinson on June 24, 2016

This week's Frozen Pool Forensics dives into Tyler Seguin's production, and future. 

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At no other time in league history has cheap, young talent been such a priority for teams. The salary cap has forced the middle class of players to the sidelines as top line wages continue to rise and the roles of those on entry-level contracts grow right along with them. So when a team trades a 21-year-old, former second overall pick, people stand up and take notice.

Off-ice behaviour issues…Not in line with our philosophy… Maturity a concern. These are the songs sung by the short-sighted and few trades in recent memory illustrate that more than Tyler Seguin being sent packing from Beantown to Big D.

Even before the great battle of Tyler vs. Taylor at the 2010 entry draft, the hockey community understood that Seguin was a special talent. Blessed with a powerful, dynamic skating style, a pair of hands that dizzy even the best defenders, a deadly accurate shot to go along with a drool-worthy distribution game, and you have all the earmarks of a franchise centre.

After winning the Stanley Cup as a young pup in 2011 in more of a support role, the questions swirled around the Brampton, Ontario native. Pictures of wild parties, shirtless in the club, and girls hanging off his tattooed arms littered the internet. It sure looked like the young millionaire was enjoying his time in the Bigs. Well, for Peter Chiarelli and company, the predominant feeling was his maturity level wasn’t there, and maybe wouldn’t come at all.

With that train of thought chugging down the tracks, Boston decided to send all that potential (along with Rich Peverley and Ryan Button) to Dallas in exchange for forwards Loui ErikssonReilly SmithMatt Fraser, and defenseman Joe Morrow. Turns out, that maybe wasn’t the best move…

Since the beginning of the 2013-14 season when Seguin debuted in Dallas, he has done nothing but produce elite numbers. Below are reports taken from Dobber’s Report Generator Tool which show the top 10 producers in various categories since that trade. 

 

Top 10 Point Categories – Oct. 2013-Present

 

Top 10 Goal Scoring Categories – Oct. 2013-Present

 

Top 10 Total Shots – Oct. 2013-Present

 

Seguin has dominated the last three seasons to the tune of: producing the fourth-most points with 234; racking up 1.05 points-per-game (just a tick above line mate Jamie Benn); being the league’s fifth-best goal scorer; taking the fourth-most shots of any player. These are staggering results that run the gamut of offensive categories and culminate in the form of a truly elite fantasy asset.

Using Dobber’s Player Profile, we can see that this past season, the 6’1 pivot shot at an 11.9 percent clip and 9.4 percent at five-on-five. He scored 33 goals and 73 points in just 71 games despite a late season Achilles injury which held him out of the final stretch of games and most of the postseason.

There likely isn’t a fantasy GM alive that doesn’t know the value that this 24-year-old possesses, but how much more can we expect from him?

One thing that’s certainly working in his favour is that he gets to line up with arguably the most dominant offensive player in the game in Benn. Benn’s ability to beat you with skill or strength acts as the perfect complement to the dazzling Seguin who relies on speed and skill to produce his gaudy numbers.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations 2015-16

Freq

Line Combination

55.5%

BENN,JAMIE – SEGUIN,TYLER – SHARP,PATRICK

12.6%

BENN,JAMIE – NICHUSHKIN,VALERI – SEGUIN,TYLER

11.9%

BENN,JAMIE – EAKIN,CODY – SEGUIN,TYLER

11.3%

BENN,JAMIE – EAVES,PATRICK – SEGUIN,TYLER

8.7%

BENN,JAMIE – SEGUIN,TYLER – SPEZZA,JASON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The formidable duo is surrounded by an excessive supporting cast highlighted by top power play line mates: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg, and Patrick Sharp. There’s a reason no other team scored more than the Stars’ 267 goals last season as they play an up-tempo style that borders on fire wagon hockey.

Now, there are two ways this can go for Seguin and the Stars heading into next season. After a wildly successful 2015-16 regular season, the Stars were bounced in round two by a team more historically “designed to win in the playoffs” see: bang, crash, clog and trap.

Do the Stars try and follow that mantra, especially with their goaltenders being below-par in an attempt to lower their abysmal 2.8 goals against per contest? That number by the way, was worse than what the Carolina Hurricanes produced with Cam Ward and Eddie Lack’s putrid combined .902 save percentage.

If the Stars fully commit to a more defensive scheme throughout next season, perhaps we see a dip in production from their top stars. Maybe instead of projecting another step forward for Seguin into the 90-point arena, we see him hover around 75 through a full season.

The other avenue is that GM Jim Nill knows what he’s built is more in line with what the most recent Cup Champions have harnessed – speed and skill. Tweaks need to be made whenever you don’t accomplish your end goal, but allowing your talent to play to their strengths should yield a better result than throwing a muzzle over them.

With his injury in the rearview mirror, a full off season of training ahead and entering into his prime-aged years, the sky remains the limit for Seguin. If you can find a GM willing to move him, get in line to purchase. In re-draft leagues, a selection in the top five is justifiable, and warranted.

 

Projected point-per-game-pace for the upcoming season: 1.00-1.05

 

Happy draft day everyone!

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Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I pretty much only talk about prospects this time of year.

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