Frozen Pool Forensics: Tyler Toffoli

by Cam Robinson on January 8, 2016

Will Tyler Toffoli continue to be a first-line stud for the Kings?

This week we’re looking at a player who was profiled on this very column about two years ago. Tyler Toffoli has come a long way since that article was written back in February 2014. Among other things, he now owns himself a gold medal from the World Championships, a Stanley Cup ring and is quickly becoming a mainstay on the NHL’s goal scoring leaderboard.

 

At just 23 years of age, Toffoli is participating in his third full season in the league. He has found a home in the top six for a highly competitive Kings’ squad, and has become one of the most consistent scorers in the game today.

 

Using Dobber’s Report Generator, we can see that Toffoli has hit the score sheet in 61.5 percent of his team’s games – good for 24th best in the league. He is sandwiched between the Sedin twins, Dylan Larkin and now line mate, Anze Kopitar. Needless to say, Toffoli is keeping some pretty nice company.

 

While we’re on the Frozen Pool Page, lets rattle off some more numbers for the LA winger. Toffoli currently has 31 points in 39 games, 19 of which are goals. That figure is good for seventh most in the league and pacing him to become the first Kings’ player to score 40 goals since Lucky Luc Robitaille accomplished the feat back in 1993-94.

 

Toffoli is also pacing to become just the third Kings’ player to record 60 or more points in the passed five seasons. Kopitar has reached that mark four times, while Jeff Carter has done it just once. (Shout out to the boys over at Keeping Karlsson for that stat. If you’re reading this and not listening to their podcast, you’re only playing at half-speed.)

 

Toffoli’s individual shooting percentage sits at a fairly high rate -17.9 percent, while his five-on-five shooting percentage comes in at a more reasonable 9.3 percent. As discussed in previous articles, very few players can maintain an individual shooting percentage above 15 or 16, but Toffoli is a known sharpshooter so while owners can expect some regression, it likely won’t be too drastic.

 

For some time, fans and critics alike have questioned why LA does not put their best centre – Kopitar – with their best triggerman – Toffoli. An injury to Jeff Carter has facilitated that move and the results have been immediate. In the five games since the two have skated together at both even-strength and with the man advantage, Toffoli has scored five goals and six points, while Kopitar has recorded eight assists. It’s hard to imagine coach, Darryl Sutter splitting the two up when Carter returns, but anyone who thinks they have a firm grasp on Sutter’s thinking is lying to themselves.

 

Here are the frequencies and production that Toffoli has witnessed this season:

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

60.67%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

12.44%

EV

KOPITAR,ANZE – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

7.51%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – PEARSON,TANNER – TOFFOLI,TYLER

2.78%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – MERSCH,MICHAEL – TOFFOLI,TYLER

2.34%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1.51%

EV

KOPITAR,ANZE – PEARSON,TANNER – TOFFOLI,TYLER

 

Total Points for Tyler Toffoli : 31

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

CARTER,JEFF – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

8

25.81%

EV

KOPITAR,ANZE – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

5

16.13%

PP

CARTER,JEFF – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

5

16.13%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – PEARSON,TANNER – TOFFOLI,TYLER

2

6.45%

SH

CARTER,JEFF – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – KOPITAR,ANZE – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

PEARSON,TANNER – SHORE,NICK – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

PP

KOPITAR,ANZE – PEARSON,TANNER – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – LEWIS,TREVOR – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

PP

KOPITAR,ANZE – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

GABORIK,MARIAN – KOPITAR,ANZE – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

KOPITAR,ANZE – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

EV

MERSCH,MICHAEL – TOFFOLI,TYLER – WEAL,JORDAN

1

3.23%

PP

CARTER,JEFF – KOPITAR,ANZE – LUCIC,MILAN – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

3.23%

 

 

Toffoli has played roughly 70 percent of his even-strength shifts with Carter, and that duo has come together to produce about 47 percent of Toffoli’s even-strength production. Not too shabby. However, Toffoli has only played around 15 percent of his even-strength shifts with Kopitar yet that time has yielded 30 percent of Toffoli’s even-strength points.

 

Here is a player who has seen his point-per-game production rise in each of his NHL seasons, from 0.47 as a rookie, to 0.65 in his sophomore campaign and finally to the 0.79 point-per-game production he has sustained so far this season. Finally coupled with his team’s most valuable and offensive forward, those numbers should only continue to rise; especially as he looks forward to that all important fourth season, where many players experience a major breakout.

 

Projected point-per-game pace for the remaining schedule: 0.7-0.85

 

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