Frozen Tools Forensics: Trade Deadline Targets

by Grant Campbell on February 22, 2019

 

Is being traded beneficial for the fantasy value of the players involved? Every year we see players dealt to a new team and they either struggle or take off. Let’s look at five of the biggest trade targets and weigh the potential impact for fantasy team owners if the player is traded to a new team.

 

Matt Duchene

Duchene could never quite put it all together (aside from 2013-2014) but certainly has with Ottawa this season. He’s on pace for a career-high 40 goals and 93 points. There are stats that indicate Duchene will slow down no matter if traded or not (Shot% is over 8% higher than his career average of 13.0%), but almost every other stat is in line with past production which indicates that this year is an anomaly. I think it is safe to say that Duchene is at his best as a Senator and if traded his value will fall.

 

 

Artemi Panarin

Panarin is another player having a fantastic season and is on pace for 35 goals and 98 points. With Columbus, he has a staggering 77.43% offensive zone start, which a new situation will probably not accommodate. While most owners would wish that Columbus would re-sign Panarin, chances are he will be moved. He is a player that will more than likely be able to hold his own wherever he ends up. Rest assured as an owner that he will be fine for the next few years.

 

 

Mark Stone

For two years now, Stone has been able to produce at more than a point per game. The only risk for a fantasy owner is of him being traded and not playing the same role on a new team, leading to slightly diminished stats. He’s a top dog in Ottawa and won’t necessarily be if moved. One encouraging stat is his IPP at even strength of 63.79, which is not high for his point output, and could indicate that even as a second-line winger he would be able to still produce at his current rate. He’s such a well-rounded player that he should be able to continue his production with any new team.

 

 

Wayne Simmonds

Simmonds is the opposite of the first three profiles; an owner should have no doubt about wanting him dealt. His stats across the board are diminishing along with his TOI. He is on pace for 36 points, which would be his worst output since 2010-2011. His plus/minus is costly in a multi-category league and if he goes to a contending team, there is the hope of improvement there. As his ice time has been reduced to its lowest in six seasons, his shots per game have taken a hit, especially in the past quarter of this season. His shot rate in the third quarter of this campaign is 1.80/g compared to a career average of 2.43/g. Even though he is still playing first unit PP time, he is in danger of not reaching double digits in goals for the first time in six seasons. I’m not sure a new team will afford him the same PP time but he certainly has the track record to be given the chance. A fantasy owner can hope that a change will give him a kick-start.

 

 

Gustav Nyquist

Nyquist is having a resurgent year and is on pace for a career high of 66 points. For some reason, he was never able to sustain his scoring rate from his first few seasons where his shooting % was above 15%. He has settled in at around 10%. His IPP of 72.7 is indicative of his point output and his PDO of 994 indicates he’s not overachieving (whereas his 2013-2014 PDO of 105.3 might have told us that he couldn’t sustain an 18.3% shooting rate). The possibility of him being traded intrigues me because he is defensively responsible and should be able to sustain his output with better plus/minus on a better team.

 

 

*

Last week's FTF: Shayne Gostisbehere