Top 100 Roto Players – February

by Austin Wallace on February 15, 2015
Top 100 Roto

 

Here are the Top 100 Rotisserie players to own in fantasy hockey (February)…

 

The Top 100 Roto brings you the best value based rankings in the business. I am happy to get the opportunity to help out Austin in putting this together. As you already know if you’ve been following this season, the Roto uses Fantasy Hockey Geek’s proprietary formula for evaluating different categories against each other and the Top 100 Roto’s category scores and multi-year averages allow for easy and informed evaluation. If your league does not count one of the categories listed here, just remove it from the calculations since all the category scores add up to the overall score.

 

If you are completely new to this list, we are using two categories to gauge how sustainable each players production is:

 

    Change in 5-on-5 Shooting %: Comparing the players shooting percentage from this season to his previous 3 seasons. An average shooting percentage for a scoring forward is around 10-12%. If a player that has been shooting 10% his whole career suddenly has a month of shooting 20%, we know he’s been getting some puck luck and can predict regression moving forward. If they have a significantly lower shooting percentage compared to their career average, we can predict a boost in production. Players in their first two-three seasons may not have enough data to make a reliable prediction and players at the end of their careers may be facing a natural athletic regression. But for the most part this will help us know those who will maintain production and those who will fall off.

    PDO: Adding on-ice shooting and save percentages. A PDO of 100 means that when a player is on the ice both goalies are letting in shots at the same rate. If your opponent’s goalie is letting in shots at a much higher rate, that could be talent, luck, or both, but in most cases it is just luck. For both PDO and shooting percentage, we are only looking at 5 on 5 stats, so different amounts of powerplay/penalty kill time doesn’t change things.

 

 

Top Performers

 

Alex Ovechkin remains the Roto King. He has been the top ranked player since the start of the season and I don’t see any reason why this doesn’t continue. The combination of goals (33 – second in the NHL) and hits (179 – sixth in the NHL) is unmatched in fantasy hockey. And this season’s coaching change has seemed to help his plus/minus drastically. He was a legitimate threat to finish last season with 50 goals and a minus-50. He didn’t quite get there, but he ended up finishing at minus-35, compared to this season being a plus-11 (difference of 46!). His SH% is slightly lower than usual so he should finish the season as strong as he started. Dustin Byfuglien keeps his spot as the top defensemen on the list and increased his overall rank to No.4, and for good reason. He’s a category monster on the ice. The recent 7 player trade centered around Evander Kane may shake up the lines, but Buf will retain his D eligibility no matter what, making him a huge asset.

 

 

Unsustainable Production

 

Currently ranked #29, Nick Foligno has been the poster child for unsustainable shooting percentage all year. He’s been around 20% all season and currently sits at 19%. For a player with a career average of 12%, this is huge red flag. Don’t expect the same goal production from him over the next couple months but he still brings value in other categories. Keith Yandle has had a good month in Arizona. Over the last 30 days he’s collected 13 assists. But for a player with 164 shots on goal, to only have four goals is very unlucky. Whether he’s on the Coyotes or gets moved at the deadline, his goal production is due for an increase. Patrick Marleau is an interesting case of someone with a very low shooting percentage (6.7%) this season, which for a player that is normally a lock for 30 goals, should signal in increase to come. However, he is 36 years old, so the decline could be for other reasons than bad luck. Nathan MacKinnon has had a very rough 2nd season, but he is still shooting 3.12 SOG per game so look for him to get some bounces over the next month. Kris Letang has had an incredible run a year out from his stroke, and cracked the top 10 this month thanks to his across the board production. Brandon Dubinsky is the biggest riser, by a country mile, but a lot of that is sample-size issues. Historically a strong multi-cat asset, he didn’t have a great start to the season, thanks in part to injury, but his strong past month has rocketed him back up the chart.

 

 

Rise/Fall

 

Max Pacioretty has been a steady riser on this list and has almost cracked the top 20. He is shooting a sustainable percentage and compared to last year, he’s been shooting at a higher rate. Last season he averaged 3.6 shots on goal per game and this year he’s up to 3.78. Patches has totaled 112 goals since the scary hit that ended his 2011 campaign. That puts him at a 37 goal per 82 game pace. He’s an elite goal scorer and will continue to rise.

 

 

Top 100 Newcomers

 

David Perron makes his first appearance on the Roto this week. This proves what everyone already knows: being traded to the Penguins top line will give you a huge boost in fantasy value. Thomas Plekanec also makes an appearance. He’s been putting up consistent points for Montreal on a young, talented line with Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher.

 

Pick up the Rankings (free PDF file) here

 

For those of you who may have a different league size, or disagree with some of the projections, you can customize them to your heart’s content with this Excel file.