A Roto-Look Ahead – Week 2
Tom Reeve
2008-10-10
As a hockey fan you have to love those days when most NHL teams are in action. However, there is a downside too. For some fantasy owners these days can mean painful decisions. Which two centers to play and which one to bench? The next day you have your answer but it is too late. There is no predicting the future but here is a spreadsheet tool that minimizes the amount of times you have to make these tough decisions.
The first tab in the spreadsheet "Two Teams" is a chart showing the number of games on the same night between any two teams. If you read the number in the Canadiens rows and the Coyotes column you will see that they play 57 games on the same day. That is 70% of their games. Conversely if you compare the Ducks and the Penguins you see they only play 28 games on the same night, about 34% of their games. This is potentially useful if trying to get two players to share one roster spot.
But why stop there? Go to the second tab of the spreadsheet "Three teams" where the same principal can be expanded to three teams. If you have two center spots to use daily and want to rotate three players though this spot this tab helps you see what teams you might want to have. Say you have Sidney Crosby and Mike Richards. If you pick up an Anaheim player as your third centre would have only 18 games when all three centers play on the same night. If you pick a Minnesota player you would have 44 games when all three play in the same nights. By picking a third center from the right team you may be able to get a lot more games, and therefore points, out of your third centre.
As the season progresses you can keep using this tool but changing the date, shown in blue, and looking only at the results for the rest of the season. If you are in a pool with daily moves and you are trying to get the most points out of your bench players this is a tool for you. It could help you decide which teams you want to get those key depth players from. However, be careful if you are in a league with maximum games per position – don't burn your games too early.
Saturday, October 11, 2008 to Friday October 17, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
San Jose 4.21 – four games LA, LA, CLB, ANA | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.21 – four games, three at home PHI, NJ, BUF, TOR | ||||||
Anaheim 4.19 – four games, three at home PHX, LA, EDM, SJ | ||||||
Phoenix 3.81 – four games, three on the road CLB, ANA, CHI, OTT | ||||||
Philadelphia 3.80 – four games NYR, MTL, PIT, COL | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Boston 1.90 – on the road to play the Wild and Montreal | ||||||
Ottawa 2.00 – home to Red Wings and Coyotes | ||||||
Tampa Bay 2.31 – home to CAR and NYI | ||||||
Florida 2.31 – home to ATL and MIN | ||||||
Columbus 2.76 – three games PHX, SJ, NAS | ||||||
Sunday, October 12, 2008 to Saturday October 18, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.19 – four games PHX, LA, EDM, SJ | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.11 – four games NJ, BUF, TOR, DET | ||||||
San Jose 4.00 – four games LA, CLB, ANA, PHI | ||||||
Buffalo 3.99 – four games NYI, NYR, VAN, ATL | ||||||
Colorado 3.90 – four games EDM, CGY, PHI, DAL | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Boston 2.00 – away to Montreal and Ottawa | ||||||
Carolina 2.09 – home to Wings and visit the Kings | ||||||
Ottawa 2.10 – home to Coyotes and Bruins | ||||||
Tampa Bay 2.21 – home to Islanders and Wild | ||||||
Florida 2.21 – home to Wild and Islanders | ||||||
Monday, October 13, 2008 to Sunday October 19, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.29 – four games, three at homes LA, EDM, SJ, CAR | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.11 – four games NJ, BUF, TOR, DET | ||||||
Chicago 4.00 – four games NAS, PHX, STL, VAN | ||||||
Buffalo 3.99 – four games NYI, NYR, VAN, ATL | ||||||
Nashville 3.81 – four games CHI, DAL, CLB, CLB | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Boston 2.00 – to road games against Montreal and Ottawa | ||||||
Los Angeles 2.00 – home to the Ducks and Hurricanes | ||||||
Ottawa 2.10 – home to Coyotes and Bruins | ||||||
Tampa Bay 2.21 – home to NYI and MIN | ||||||
Florida 2.21 – home to MIN and NYI | ||||||
Tuesday, October 14, 2008 to Monday October 20, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.29 – a visit to LA followed by EDM, SJ, CAR at home. | ||||||
Pittsburgh 4.21 – home to PHI, WAS, TOR and a visit to BOS | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.11 – four games BUF, TOR, DET, DAL | ||||||
Colorado 4.00 – four games CGY, PHI, DAL, LA | ||||||
Dallas 3.91 – four games NAS, STL, COL, NYR | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Detroit 1.89 – home to Canucks and Rangers | ||||||
Toronto 1.71 – visit to NYR and PIT | ||||||
Carolina 1.90 – visit to LA and Anaheim | ||||||
Washington 1.80 – PIT and NJ | ||||||
St. Louis 2.00 – home to Stars and Blackhawks | ||||||
Wednesday, October 15, 2008 to Tuesday October 21, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.20 – four games EDM, SJ, CAR, TOR | ||||||
Buffalo 3.99 – four games NYR, VAN, ATL, BOS | ||||||
Bruins 3.99 – four games MTL, OTT, PIT, BUF | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.11 – four games BUF, TOR, DET, DAL | ||||||
Dallas 3.91 – four games NAS, STL, COL, NYR | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Philadelphia 1.71 – two road games COL and SJ | ||||||
San Jose 1.81 – back-to-back games against ANA and PHI | ||||||
Detroit 1.89 – two games against top goalies VAN an NYR | ||||||
Carolina 1.90 – two games LA and ANA | ||||||
St. Louis 2.00 – two games DAL and CHI | ||||||
Thursday, October 16, 2008 to Wednesday October 22, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Florida 4.20 – four games MIN, NYI, MTL, OTT | ||||||
Vancouver 3.80 – four road games DET, BUF, CHI, CLB | ||||||
Dallas 3.71 – four games STL, COL, NYR, NJ | ||||||
Tampa Bay 3.47 – three home games NYI, MIN, ATL | ||||||
Calgary 3.25 – three games EDM, EDM, WAS | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Carolina 1.90 – two road games LA and ANA | ||||||
Phoenix 2.00 – two road games OTT and MTL | ||||||
Nashville 2.00 – two back-to-back games CLB, CLB | ||||||
NY Islanders 2.09 – two road games TAM, FLA | ||||||
Minnesota 2.09 – two road games FLA and TAM | ||||||
Friday, October 17, 2008 to Thursday, October 23, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Calgary 4.20 – four games EDM, EDM, WAS, NAS | ||||||
Boston 4.19 – four games OTT, PIT, BUF, TOR | ||||||
Buffalo 4.09 – four games VAN, ATL, BOS, MIN | ||||||
Edmonton 3.90 – four games CGY, CGY, CHI, COL | ||||||
Dallas 3.81 – four games COL, NYR, NJ, NYI | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Philadelphia 1.60 – two games SJ, SJ | ||||||
New Jersey 1.90 – two games WAS, DAL | ||||||
NY Islanders 1.90 – two games FLA, DAL | ||||||
Detroit 1.90 – two games NYR, STL | ||||||
St. Louis 2.00 – two games CHI, DET | ||||||
Saturday, October 18, 2008 to Friday October 24, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Boston 4.19 – four games OTT, PIT, BUF, TOR | ||||||
Florida 3.99 – four games NYI, MTL, OTT, SJ | ||||||
Dallas 3.81 – four games COL, NYR, NJ, NYI | ||||||
Pittsburgh 3.26 – three games TOR, BOS, CAR | ||||||
St. Louis 3.26 – three games CHI, DET, LA | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Carolina 1.62 – two road games ANA, PIT | ||||||
NY Islanders 1.90 – two games FLA, DAL | ||||||
Vancouver 1.90 – two road games CHI, CBJ | ||||||
Phoenix 2.00 – two games MTL, WAS | ||||||
Los Angeles 2.00 two games COL and STL | ||||||
Sunday, October 19, 2008 to Saturday October 25, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Boston 4.41 – four games PIT, BUF, TOR, ATL | ||||||
Anaheim 4.20 – four games CAR, TOR, OTT, MTL | ||||||
Dallas 3.81 – four games NYR, NJ, NYI, WAS | ||||||
Florida 3.79 – four games MTL, OTT, SJ, STL | ||||||
Colorado 3.45 – three games LA, EDM, BUF | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Montreal 1.89 – two games FLA, ANA | ||||||
Phoenix 2.10 – two games WAS, CGY | ||||||
NY Islander 2.10 – two games DAL, CAR | ||||||
Tampa Bay 2.10 – two games ATL, SJ | ||||||
Minnesota 2.21 – two games BUF, CBJ | ||||||
Monday, October 20, 2008 to Sunday October 26, 2008 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Boston 4.41 – four games PIT, BUF, TOR, ATL | ||||||
Dallas 3.81 – four games NYR, NJ, NYI, WAS | ||||||
Florida 3.79 – four games MTL, OTT, SJ, STL | ||||||
Colorado 3.45 – three games LA, EDM, BUF | ||||||
St. Louis 3.26 – three games DET, LA, FLA | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Montreal 1.89 – two games FLA and ANA | ||||||
Carolina 1.90 – two games PIT, NYI | ||||||
Chicago 2.10 – two games EDM, DET | ||||||
Phoenix 2.10 – two games WAS, CGY | ||||||
NY Islanders 2.10 – two games DAL, CAR |
The number next to the team indicates the 'multiplier' to use on a player's point-per-game pace to give you an idea how many points to expect for that week. Example:
Example: For the week starting on October 7 the NY Islanders have a rating of 4.20. That means that if you think Mike Comrie is a 0.80 point-per-game player then you should expect about 3.4 points from him (4.20 X 0.80). Boston has a 1.90 rating over the same period. If you think Marc Savard is a 1.10 point-per-game player then you should expect about 2.1 points from him. So even though Marc Savard is a better player you may choose to go with Comrie over Savard.