NHL Picks – Saturday, March 14, 2009

Dobber Sports

2009-03-13

Thunder

 

Last week got off to an atrocious start as I found myself 0-3 heading into the evening action while my 4 legged counterpart was 3-0. A strong showing in the later games allowed me to escape at 5-5 (14-20 on the year), still not enough to catch Thunder who went 6-4 and is 18-16 on the year. Since I lost last week, my wife, of course taking the dog’s side, wanted me to share this endearing photo with you all of the “best” team in the league. 13 big ones on the schedule so let’s get things rolling:
 

NY Islanders @ Boston Bruins
Three times I’ve gone against the Islanders, to lose all three times. Well, this week things are looking different as the Isles find themselves on the road finally for a Saturday game where they hold the worst road record in the league with only 7 wins. The NYI are the 2nd worst faceoff team in the league at 45.8%, which would make it kind of hard to win games when you start the play without the puck. The B’s have taken the last 4 H2H matchups by a score of 16 – 5. Let’s face it, betting on the Islanders would be like betting on Dobber to find the cure for cancer J

Prediction: H+
Thunder’s Pick: H

NY Rangers @ Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia leads the league in GF to GA margin at +15 in afternoon games, while the Rangers are worst in the league at -13. New York has only scored 7 goals in 6 matinees. Combine that with a 30% PP (Phi) going up against a lowly 5.3% PP (NYR). Valiquette has started both of the games so far this year, and let’s hope he’s not between the pipes on Saturday based on his 3.41 GAA on the road.

Prediction: H
Thunder’s Pick: H

Detroit Red Wings @ St. Louis Blues
Chris Mason has turned his season around in a big way, posting a 9-3-1 record in his last 13 starts with his GAA hovering just over 2.00 and a 0.922 SV%. The Wings have been blown out the last couple of Saturdays, but Detroit has won all 4 games this year H2H. The Wings have the 2nd worst PK in the league since the all-star break at 71.6% and worst overall on the road (75.2%). Luckily their top road PP (28.9%) should keep them in this one long enough to pull it out.

Prediction: V
Thunder’s Pick: H

Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pens timing couldn’t be any better. The hottest team in the league (9-1-1 in last 11) is set to open up an 8 game home stand. Ottawa is not Fleury’s favourite team based on his 3-5 record with a 4.45 GAA and .870 SV% against them all time. Unfortunately their -22 GF to GA margin on the road and their league worst 57.1% PK during afternoon games will come back to haunt them.

Prediction: H
Thunder’s Pick:V

New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens
The Devils go for the season sweep this Saturday against the Canadiens, a team they’ve beaten 12 out of 15 games since the lockout. The Habs are coming off a home loss to the Islanders…ouch. The Devils have won 7 of their last 9 averaging 3.4 GF/game; ironically both losses were at the hands of those pesky Islanders.

Prediction: V
Thunder’s Pick: H

Atlanta Thrashers @ Buffalo Sabres
The Thrashers are 6-2-1 in their last 9 games away from home and boast the 2nd highest scoring offense on the road. However, more often than not games are won with your special teams. Luckily the Sabres rank 5th on the PP and on the PK in the league this year. Lalime is 7-3-1-1 with a 2.28 GAA and .908 SV% versus Atlanta all time.

Prediction: H
Thunder’s Pick: V

Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
The home team hasn’t lost a game in this series since December of 2002 when Roman Turek lost to Trevor Kidd. The Leafs are 2-3-3 in their last 8 games at the ACC. The Flames are coming off a late come from behind victory over the Detroit Red Wings and hope to end their 7 game road trip over .500. Kipper leads the league with 40 wins this season and has a legit shot to break Brodeur’s single season record of 48 wins in a season. Calgary is 12-5 versus the Northeast since the lockout.

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Prediction: V+
Thunder’s Pick: H

Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
The Caps are 1-4-1 in their last 6 home games scoring a measly 14 GF. Washington holds the top PP in the league since the all-star break, however Carolina has the best GF-GA margin since the all-star break at +19. Erik Cole is enjoying success since returning to Carolina putting up 6 pts. in 4 games and hopefully waking Eric Staal who has 9 pts. in as many games.

Prediction: H
Thunder’s Pick: T

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Florida Panthers
The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the John Tavares sweepstakes while Florida continues to claw its ways into playoff contention. The only statistic you need to know is that Vokoun is 16-7-2 at home with a 2.15 GAA a .934 SV% and 5 SO… Very impressive, he’ll definitely help Tampa Bay achieve their goal of the 1st overall draft pick this season.

Prediction: H
Thunder’s Pick: H

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars
Dallas has owned Minnesota head to head winning 11 of the last 13 meetings. Both teams have struggled down the stretch and have fallen on the bubble in terms of making it to the post season. The Wild are 3-4-3 in their last 10 while Dallas is 3-6-1 in the same stretch. The Wild have only surrendered 1 PPG in their last 7 road games. The Wild are below .500 on the road while the Stars just broke a 6 game home losing streak.

Prediction: T
Thunder’s Pick: V

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers have won 5 of the last 6 Saturday night matchups against the Avs. The Avalanche have packed it in for the year and their -39 GF to GA differential on the road is second worst to the NY Islanders. The Avs may as well get themselves ready for the lottery pick to see where they select in the upcoming draft. Colorado has surrendered 3.3 GA/game over the last 10 games.

Prediction: H+
Thunder’s Pick: H

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks
San Jose has taken the last 7 of 8 matchups against the Kings. It doesn’t help that LA comes into the shark tank having lost their last 4 straight on the road. In B2B situation the Kings have lost 4 of 6 games on the back end. San Jose holds the 2nd best PP in the league and have only lost 3 times in regulation on home ice. Dallas, Calgary, and Detroit have defeated the Sharks on their home ice, however we won’t be adding the LA Kings to that list anytime soon.

Prediction: H
Thunder’s Pick: H

Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes

The Coyotes are 1-6-1 in their last 8 games overall, and have dropped 4 of the last 5 against the Nashville Predators. The Preds have won 9 of 13 versus Pacific Division foes, while the Coyotes have only won 6 of 18 contests against the Central Division including losses in 6 straight. Pekka Rinne has been masterful against the ‘Yotes this year surrendering 1 goal in each of the two games he’s faced them, stopping 54 of 56 shots on goal. Even if he’s not ready to go by Saturday, Dan Ellis’ career 2.30 GAA and .928 SV% versus Phoenix should keep the Preds on the winning side of this matchup.

Prediction: V
Thunder’s Pick: V

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
JACK QUINN BUF
FILIP FORSBERG NSH

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IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI

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18.9 EELI TOLVANEN OLIVER BJORKSTRAND MATTY BENIERS
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14.6 RYAN WINTERTON LOGAN MORRISON TYE KARTYE

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