The Contrarian – The Cult of Mike Babcock

Ian Gooding

2015-05-10

babcock

Would Mike Babcock really choose the Edmonton Oilers?

Yesterday morning The Cult of Hockey, a blog found on the Edmonton Journal, posted an article titled Window opens up for Edmonton Oilers to make their move on Mike Babcock. In it, they list seven reasons why Mike Babcock would choose to join the Oilers if he decides to leave the Detroit Red Wings.

1. Money

They make the claim that Daryl Katz has the money and is willing to give it to Babcock.

Well, there are lots of owners and ownership groups that have money. Katz doesn't have all the money and even so, the Oilers are still a small market team.

2. Bob Nicholson

The links are well known and documented. Both he and Babcock were behind the two Canadian Olympic gold medal successes. It is a feather in the Oilers' cap, but so were the links to the various Stanley Cup championships with Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish, and look how it worked out for them. The Globe and Mail's Erik Duhatschek wrote an article when Peter Chiarelli was hired and mentions the Lowe/MacTavish expectations. Now they are being phased out.

3. Peter Chiarelli

Similar to Nicholson, he and Babcock were part of the 2014 men's gold winning team. He has a good record as GM, but it is probably his deal to trade Tyler Seguin away that is the reason why the Boston Bruins decided to let him go. Would he want Babcock? I think he would. So would anyone else who didn't have this link.

4. Connor McDavid

Ah. The next 'Next One'. We can certainly see that being appetizing for a coach but how long before the team is in a position to contend for the Stanley Cup? It is an important question because as Nicholas Cotsonika of Yahoo claims on TSN 1050, Babcock wants to coach an elite team that can win cups sooner rather than later. To that point, he suggests coaching Sidney Crosby right now. After all, he already did win gold with Sid.

5. The Current Roster of Talent

This is the same roster that has continually struggled to improve over the last few years. Yes, it too is tantalizing, but either the previous staff has been inept in making the squad better, or the talent only looks good on paper. They are still young and things can be changed, but that means that Babcock has to nurse this team for a while. There should be no immediate plans for games in the finals.

6. Is Western Canadian

So. He has coached all over the place. He went to school at McGill. He has lived in the United States for a long time. That he still has a home in Saskatchewan is not a reason for him to coach in Edmonton.

7. The New Arena

At one point in time it was well known that the ice and Northlands Coliseum (now Rexall Place) was the best in the league. With the new techniques and equipment, that is not necessarily the case now. There will be other teams that have new arenas as well.

Here is what we do know about Babcock from Mark Zeisberger of the Toronto Sun and Mark Masters of TSN.

Says Babcock: "I have no skill set to a general manager", "I'm a coach, I love to coach. I love the players, I love the competition, I like being close to the ice. I love what I do and I think I'm good at it."

Regarding influence on personnel decisions: "So, do I want to have input? Yes. Do I have input here? Lots."

There are four main factors that will go into his decision:

1. Money (this includes term and security)

It has been previously mentioned by various authorities on the subject that he will command over $5 million a season. What people do not look at is the length of the contract. $5.5 million for three seasons is a lot less than $5 million over seven.

2. Talent (this includes leadership)

The team he will want to be a part of will not only be talented, but it will have leaders or potential leaders. It is a reason why Detroit has been so successful under his coaching.

3. Age of Players

If he leaves Detroit, it may be because the very talented leaders are in their mid-30s and there is not much time left to win cups with them. This does not mean that having a boatload of early 20-year olds is any better.

4. Opportunity to Win

Teams that are closer to winning will have advantages provided that their window of opportunity is lengthy.

So where does he go? Here are some videos from TSN:

Babcock officially hits coaching free agency market

Looking at Babcock's options

Team

Coach

GM

Anaheim

Bruce Boudreau

Bob Murray

Arizona

Dave Tippett

Don Maloney

Boston

Claude Julien

vacant

Buffalo

vacant

Tim Murray

Chicago

Joel Quenneville

Stan Bowman

Detroit

vacant*

Ken Holland

Edmonton

vacant

Peter Chiarelli

Los Angeles

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Darryl Sutter

Dean Lombardi

Minnesota

Mike Yeo

Chuck Fletcher

Montreal

Michael Therrien

Marc Bergevin

Nashville

Peter Laviolette

David Poile

New Jersey

vacant

Ray Shero

NY Islanders

Jack Capuano

Garth Snow

Philadelphia

vacant

Ron Hextall

Pittsburgh

Mike Johnston

Jim Rutherford

San Jose

vacant

Doug Wilson

St. Louis

Ken Hitchcock

Doug Armstrong

Toronto

vacant

vacant

I have removed teams that are unlikely to replace their current coach.

Darren Dreger thinks Anaheim is an option because of his previous links to the organization. However, Babcock chose not to accept a contract extension and opted to go to the Red Wings back in 2005. Also Boudreau is doing rather well with his squad.

Arizona might need someone if Tippett decides to go elsewhere, as discussed on NBC's Pro Hockey Talk, but the Coyotes will not be able to pay the salary he would want and do not have the talent.

Boston might let Claude Julien go, but without having the GM in place, it would seem a bit ridiculous to hire the coach first.

Buffalo owner might have money to spend on a coach, but it will be a long rebuild even with Jack Eichel.

Chicago is on the list only because I heard someone commented on Prime Time Sports earlier this week that there is a rift between the Bowmans and coach Q. I certainly don't believe it especially since his playoff victory wins since 2005-06 is only slightly less than Babcock's.

Los Angeles might be interested after the lockout of Sutter incident in February, and they would have the money. The talent is there too. It would be a bold move on Lombardi's part, though.

Minnesota could be looking for an upgrade, but I am not sure about the money and they do not have a tonne of talent as compared to other teams.

Montreal is only on the list because of an article on HockeyFeed.com. I think this is just like the rumor about Chicago: to be disregarded.

Nashville is an interesting team because they are desperate to win. Only one season after they replaced Barry Trotz, would they go after Babcock?

New Jersey now has Ray Shero as their general manager, but the age of the team is quite old and the talent level is quite low.

The New York Islanders are a wild card here. It would be an improvement over Dave Capuano and they would be going into a new building, but it doesn't strike me as something that would happen. Craig Button feels that it could possible happen though.

Philadelphia is a front runner. They do have talent and an owner who can dish out the big cheques.

Pittsburgh should consider Babcock and see if he would be interested. Maybe they cannot offer so much in terms of dollars per season but could offer more term instead. As mentioned earlier, they do have Sidney Crosby.

San Jose would be replacing Todd McLellan (former assistant coach) with Babcock. Don Cherry thinks Babcock should go here, but with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau up in age it is only slightly better than what he's currently got in Detroit.

St. Louis could decide to part ways with Ken Hitchcock, as per Sportsnet. Talent and depth are there but they might not be able to pay what Babcock wants.

Toronto has the money, and everyone keeps talking about it. They have a connection to Babcock with Brendan Shanahan but just like Boston, why would you hire the coach before finding their GM? They have some talent that has been horribly miscast. What Shanahan is attempting to do with the front office might be a good fit with Babcock.

One thing is for certain: The team that acquires Mike Babcock will have a dynamic coach. Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun wrote that Ken Holland asked him prior to being hired if he could change his style. The answer is that he did and continues to do so. Whoever he has on the roster he finds a way to engineer a system that emphasizes their strengths.

Being stuck in one system only allows for other teams to find a way to break it. That is what makes Babcock so valuable. It is why he has this cult following.

If you can predict which team (Philadelphia) he will sign with, then I suggest trading or drafting for players on that team for your fantasy team. If you are correct, you would have gotten those players much cheaper than after his new team announces the signing.

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