There Is Always a Hitch

Ian Gooding

2015-05-31

ken hitchcock

Does Ken Hitchcock deserve to coach the St. Louis Blues for another season?

Good evening.

Today's tale is one of a coach who is obsessed about possession. I am talking about Ken Hitchcock.

Once upon a time it was about trapping and holding up the opposition in the neutral zone. Now it is about having his players hold on to the puck as long as they can. The rationale is that if you have the puck, the other team cannot score.

When he was hired by the Blues in 2011, he explained to Stu Hackel of SI.com: "Fast and loose offensively ends up in losses. Fast and tight defensively ends up in wins … You can't win in the league unless you've got everyone committed for 200 feet … The quicker you get the puck back, the more you have it".

He reiterated those thoughts back in October 2013 when the Chicago Tribune's Chris Kuc wrote: "We're more focused on puck control. We're more focused on the ability to maintain possession with the puck and find the right way to do it. I think our game is evolving. I think we tried to work on getting balance, more than anything."

Hitchcock was recently extended to a one-year deal with the St. Louis Blues to try yet again to obtain the very elusive post-season success. Some, like Matt Larkin of THN, feel he is the wrong man for the Blues.

As Larkin wrote in his April 28 article: "[The] Sword of Damocles should fall on Hitchcock, too. A team stacked as the Blues has no excuse to stall in round 1 in three straight years. Armstrong gave Hitchcock a one-year 'prove it' extension after last year's debacle and watched the Blues bow out of round 1 in six games a third straight time. Something has to change."

He does credit Hitchcock with being able to turn undisciplined teams into winners. Well, regular season winners. Two-time Central Division champions in the last four seasons.

It can be argued too that the man knew too much. "He is a progressive thinker," and "He attends sports seminars and learns army cadet psychology and listens to new music in hopes of tapping into young players' minds. He's evidently quite successful at getting results and maturing the youth into bona fide NHLers," says Larkin.

The rest of Larkin's article goes on to say that he'd be a great coach for the young and innocent Edmonton Oilers, but it doesn't really explain why Hitchcock should be relieved of his duties in St. Louis.

Maybe it is from years of sentiments like Bernie Miklasz's of St. Louis Today – May 18, 2013 (article via qestia.com because of content blockers), "Blues players are paid and treated and coddled like athletes who have actually won something meaningful. They are rarely held accountable. And now the coach and GM are enabling them."

Those are pretty emotional feelings, but that still doesn't explain why he should go.

Are the players spellbound by the playoff atmosphere and intensity? Do they have stage fright? It's hard to imagine that this is the case, since they've been there the last four years.

The Score's Justin Bourne hypothesized back in October that, "Ken Hitchcock's style keeps the Blues from racking up shots". He even has a few video clips included to illustrate what he is referring to.

He claimed that player offensive point totals dry up because of the "safety first" (a.k.a. puck possession) approach Hitchcock wants the team to play.

Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz were nice surprises this season, especially considering that Hitchcock is notoriously known for overplaying veterans. SB Nation's Lighthouse Hockey blog talks about how he's avoiding overusing his top lines, and this was back on December 5, 2013.

Let us look at the team numbers since 2000-01, though:

Coach

Season

GF

GA

ShF

ShA

GF%

Hitchcock

2014-15

239

197

2535

2233

54.9

Hitchcock

2013-14

239

188

2402

2163

55.8

Hitchcock

2012-13

124

114

1336

1161

51.9

Hitchcock

2011-12

206

155

2512

2190

56.8

Payne

2010-11

236

228

2475

2274

50.8

Murray

2009-10

218

218

2445

2473

50

Murray

2008-09

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227

227

2271

2341

50

Murray

2007-08

202

232

2141

2249

46.5

Murray

2006-07

208

248

2202

2369

 

Kitchen

2005-06

193

284

2335

2510

 

Kitchen

2003-04

191

198

2223

2103

 

Quenneville

2002-03

253

222

2301

2047

 

Quenneville

2001-02

227

188

2380

1847

 

Quenneville

2000-01

249

195

2494

1933

 

(GF – Goals For, GA – Goals Against, ShF – Shots For, ShA – Shots Against, GF% – Corsi – All Situations. All stats provided compiled from NHL.com, sportingcharts.com and puckalytics.com)

Shot totals do not look to be any lower than normal. Actual Shots For rankings have the Blues in 11th, 22nd, 23rd, 10th, 18th, 17th, 29th, 29th, 28th, 24th, 24th, 17th, 7th and 3rd respectively (2014-15 to 2000-01).

Possession values improved dramatically: 3rd, 3rd, 12th, 1st, 15th, 15th, 17th and 26th (also going from latest to oldest seasons).

There is no reason to expect any dramatic decrease in player point totals next season.

I confess. At this point in time I don't see a reason not to want Hitchcock in St. Louis. The argument seems to be for the birds.

Yet, those possession figures give me suspicion. Oh, the frenzy of possession and fancy stats that has gripped the league and fantasy owners of late.

Travis Yost of TSN came up with a puck possession stat that was to help predict the playoff winners. Based on past results, nearly 70 percent of matchups were won by the team that had the better puck possession numbers. If you dove in and went with that research this year's playoffs you would have gotten only two out of the eight first round matchups correct.

While the logic "if I've got the puck you can't score" sounds fit, there is a cost that is not being calculated. How much effort must be exerted in order to keep the puck for the quality opportunity (or lack thereof) to score?

We tend to think of these things like we are playing a video game. I score first, then grab the puck and rag it as much as I can until all the game time has evaporated.

As a strategy it might hold some water during the regular season because of how long it is, but when playoff time comes around, it is do or die. From SI.com's BleedinBlue by Kate Cimini: "Because playoff hockey isn't something you can game, necessarily, and that's what the Blues are missing. Playoffs hockey is a thousand percent effort, and a heck of a lot of coaching. [Her] complicated feelings on Hitchcock's coaching aside, the effort simply wasn't there from our Blues."

Dominik Jansky of SBNation quoted Hicthcock as saying: "When the temperature emotionally of the games went up, I think our personal discipline wasn’t there. The little edge you need is a learned skill, and we didn’t have it. So we took penalties at the wrong time. We got emotionally wrapped up in the shift, and couldn’t shut it down when you need to shut it down," after being swept in 2012 to Los Angeles. Fatigue plays a part in making poor decisions.

You sabotage your team's success in the playoffs if it costs you so much energy and too much effort in order to make the playoffs. And all of this for a few percentage points above 50 percent, not 60 percent or 70 percent.

As reported by NBCSports at the beginning of this past season, General Manager Doug Armstrong said "It's basically up to the players to get the job done." By being extended for one more season, Armstrong has given Hitchcock either a lifeboat or the hanging rope. It is up to Hitchcock to get the job done.

Hitchcock is a smart guy and deserves to be coaching in the league, but he's got to understand that what has occurred over the last four seasons cannot be repeated. The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different outcome. It has made Blues fans go psycho.

He's proven that he can change and adapt. The question is can he rethink his obsession over possession?

P.S. There are 14 references to Hitchcock movies in the article. See if you can find them.

The Contrarian – Players and Prayers

The Contrarian – The Cult of Mike Babcock

The Contrarian – One More Way to Increase Scoring

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