Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades: Winnipeg Jets

Cam Robinson

2017-09-27

Dobber's offseason fantasy hockey grades – Winnipeg Jets

For the last 14 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

This year, due to Dobber’s battle with cancer, he recruited Cam Robinson (of Frozen Pool Forensics fame) to pinch hit. The 15th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey.

Enjoy!

GoneOndrej Pavelec, Brian Strait, Chris Thorburn, Paul Postma, Anthony Peluso, Quinton Howden, Brenden Kichton

IncomingSteve Mason, Dmitry Kulikov, Matt Hendricks, Michael Sgarbossa, Buddy Robinson, Cameron Schilling

Impact of changes – For years the Jets have garnered below league average goaltending from Ondrej Pavelec. It appeared that the team was going to finally solve that issue internally when Connor Hellebuyck burst onto the scene in 2015-16, but it may have been a case of too much, too soon for the young netminder as he too failed to live up to the not-so-lofty average save percentage mark of .913. Signing former Calder Trophy winner Steve Mason doesn’t alleviate all their problems, as he’s coming off a sub-par .908 campaign with the Flyers himself, but he’s also the owner of a .918 mark in his past 224 games played stretching back to 2013-14. Mason will likely be gifted the starter’s role to begin the season, but don’t discount Hellebuyck just yet as he appears to be the prototypical post-hype sleeper. Historically, Mason hasn’t done well with a back-up goalie breathing down his neck, so this will be an interesting situation to watch.

Ready for full-time Kyle Connor looked ready to jump straight from a freshman season at Michigan to the NHL last fall, and he did. But he didn’t stick past the 20-game mark as it was clear he wasn’t quite marinated enough. Once in the AHL, the 20-year-old found his groove; leading the team in goals with 25 and adding 19 helpers in just 52 games. Blessed with blazing speed and hands that can keep up with his feet, Connor looks stronger and more confident this fall and should have an NHL job all sewed up. The only question remains is whether Paul Maurice will slide him onto the second line opposite Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler and have Mathieu Perreault anchor the third line, or vice versa. Obviously that decision will hold a major swing in the production of Connor this season, but regardless, he should see some time on the second power play unit. The future is very bright for the former Hobey Baker finalist, and he’s an oft-overlooked asset in a sea of elite young talents in Winnipeg. Read more on Connor here.

Nic Petan is stuck. He’s a 5’9” offensively-driven centre who is deployed in a bottom-six role. Despite scoring 42 goals in his draft year, Petan is a pass first player through and through, so in order to create offense, he needs some players around him who can finish. It’s not so surprising to see his muted totals when his most common line mates last season were Brandon Tanev and Chris Thorburn. Petan will once again be locked in a bottom six position this season but will be a mainstay on the second power-play unit. Don’t expect that to change any time soon with Bryan Little recently signing an extension and Mark Scheifele as the clear number one pivot. With a glut of high-end wingers in the system, the former Portland Winterhawks’ star could still be impactful down the lineup, especially if he and Kyle Connor can find quick chemistry. Read more on Petan here.

Tucker Poolman completed a nice three-year career with the University of North Dakota where he saw his point-per-game output improve each season and even hoisted a National Championship in 2015-16. The 6’4” rearguard is mobile for his size and brings a strong two-way ability to the rink. With Byfuglien, Myers and Trouba all in front of him on the right side, the Jets may feel it better for the rookie to learn the professional game in the AHL rather than be the seventh defender in Winnipeg. If he doesn’t start the year in Winnipeg, he’s not far off.  Read more on Poolman here.

Marko Dano has spent parts of the last three seasons with three different NHL squads. Most recently, after coming over in the Andrew Ladd deal from Chicago, the 22-year-old saw 38 games with the Jets and produced four goals and 11 points in limited minutes. The former first-round pick from 2013 appears set to start the season on the wing but can step into the middle of the ice if need be. Despite some early career results, it’s unlikely Dano ever becomes a regular contributor on the offensive end. Read more on Dano here.

Fantasy Outlook – The Jets have long been considered a team on the rise, and while their regular season point totals have been underwhelming thus far, their individual fantasy assets are near the top of the heap. Patrik Laine is one the most electric and pinpoint precision snipers the league has seen in a very long time. If there’s anyone who can hang around the near-20 percent conversion mark, its him. 50 goals are coming. Mark Scheifele took a lot of heat when he returned to junior for his draft-plus two campaign, but the patience has paid off as the 24-year-old took off like a bullet last season, recording 82 points in 79 contests – good for seventh best in the league. There’s little reason to believe he can’t maintain at or near that output moving forward. Nikolaj Ehlers is a wildly talented 21-year-old who is often the forgotten man in Winnipeg but could jump into the top 20 scorers as early as this season; and of course, captain Blake Wheeler is as consistent as they come, averaging 76 points the last two seasons. On the back-end, Byfuglien remains an animal, capable of 50-plus points, 200-plus shots and 100-plus penalty minutes. He’s supplemented by a quickly-improving, Trouba, an up-and-coming Josh Morrissey and the steady, Tyler Myers. Goaltending has long been the Achilles heel for the Jets, but the incoming Steve Mason should at least help that area and Connor Hellebuyck remains a top flight young netminder with a high ceiling. This team is chock full of assets to build your fantasy squad around and 2017-18 appears to be the season that they push their way into the playoff picture.

Fantasy Grade: A- (Last year: B+)

**

Final Grades

Pittsburgh: A+

Edmonton: A

Tampa Bay: A

Toronto: A

Dallas: A-

Washington: A-

Winnipeg: A-

Nashville: B+

St. Lous: B+

Arizona: B

Boston: B

Buffalo: B

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Chicago: B

Columbus: B

Florida: B

Montreal: B

NYI: B

NYR: B

Ottawa: B

Minnesota: B-

Philadelphia: B-

Anaheim: C+

Calgary: C+

Carolina: C+

San Jose: C+

Colorado: C

LA: C

New Jersey: C

Detroit: C-

Vancouver: C-

Vegas: C-

**

Thanks to all of you who stuck it out with me throughout this summer series. It was a privilege to step in and pinch hit for Dobber as he’s bravely battled cancer. I hope you’ve enjoyed each break down and can read each part of the series here.

**

Pick up the 12th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Hockey Guide here (out on August 1)

OR

Get the Fantasy Guide and the Prospects Report as part of a package and save $7.00 – here!

6 Comments

  1. jaybird934 2017-09-27 at 21:21

    Nice pinch hitting Cam. We’ll let the upcoming season determine what your batting average was. Thanks for the work.

    • Cam Robinson 2017-09-28 at 13:24

      Thanks! The history books will always have the final say.

  2. Steffen 2017-09-28 at 03:12

    Thanks Cam. And welcome back Dobber. Frigging trooper.

    As a Jets season ticket holder, and long-time DobberHockey lurker, I fully endorse Cam’s read of this team. It’s a goldmine for fantasy.

    Mason/Hellebuyck is your classic 1A/1B. Hot hand will play, and coach Maurice will give the the hotter hand the extra game. Forget salary – this ownership won’t care. If you own one, better own both.

    Kyle Connor will bust into the top 6, somehow. Slick hands and speed, and there’s lots of insulation to let him find a line/chemistry. 50 points at least, I figure. It’ll be fun to watch. Perreault might drop, but the 3rd line would benefit. This is a deep top six that will bleed into the top nine.

    So much so that deep leaguers should pay attention. Lowry will again prove that he can outplay expectations. Hits and secondary scoring, with decent +/-. (I will never not own him in my deep roto pools.) 40 points would make me very happy.

    Petan can’t find a spot. Lipon neither (nice snarl to his game). Armia and Dano are blocked. The Hendricks signing (I like it for protection – Thorburn and Peluso are gone) means he WILL play on the 4th line. This team is deep.

    On D, it’s down to Chiarot or Poolman for 7th. Kulikov will play, but it’ll be D first. Good for +/-, maybe. Poolman seems to have more upside than Chiarot, but waiver eligibility might rule here. (I haven’t done that homework.)

    Anyway, just my two cents. Worth less.

    • Cam Robinson 2017-09-28 at 13:24

      Thanks, Steffen. Great insight. Poolman is waiver exempt while Chariot isn’t. That couples with playing time opportunities for Poolman will likely mean he’s down on the farm.

  3. Mathieu 2017-09-28 at 09:22

    Cam, thanks a lot for a great series of off-season grades. This has been super useful in preparing for the upcoming season. Great work.

    • Cam Robinson 2017-09-28 at 13:20

      Thanks, Mathieu! It was a blast to write!

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Starting Goalies

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LINE COMBOS

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24.6 TIM STUTZLE CLAUDE GIROUX ANGUS CROOKSHANK
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17.3 DOMINIK KUBALIK MATHIEU JOSEPH RIDLY GREIG

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