2015 Offseason Fantasy Look: Chicago Blackhawks

Doran Libin

2015-06-15

Patrick Kane grimace

 

The offseason (in-season?) fantasy hockey outlook for the Chicago Blackhawks

 

Chicago currently has eight forwards, three defensemen and three goalies under contract for next year with a cap hit of 64 million. With an expected salary cap around 71 million for next season the Blackhawks will have to cut loose some salary this off-season because seven to eight million is not enough to fill seven to ten roster spots. Especially when that needs to include re-signing Brandon Saad, who will get a big contract, Marcus Kruger who takes the worst zone starts, and Johnny Oduya, a pillar of their top four D. Those three alone will probably require a minimum of 11 million (Saad at 5 million, Oduya at 4 million and Kruger at 2 million). This means they probably need to cut about that much in order to fill out their roster.

Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Brandon Saad are more or less a constant in Chicago as a line. Toews is a very consistent producer, generally 2.6 to 2.8 points per 60 minutes, right around 70 points. Marian Hossa on the other hand has been trending down over the last six years. This year Hossa had his lowest rate of production since coming into the league at 2.4 points per 60. Hossa had a career low shooting percentage this year, which would usually be reason to suspect a bounce back from Hossa if it were not part of a general trend. This seems to be a popular opinion on the site but beware of Hossa dropping off next year, something below 50 points is not out of the question. Brandon Saad on the other hand is on the way up. He has been producing at a very consistent rate of 2.2 P60 but is starting to get extra minutes and thus more points, including breaking two minutes on the power play this season. With the extra minutes Saad is also shooting more, as he enters his fourth year Saad is a prime break out candidate.

Patrick Kane is the real fantasy gem in Chicago. He has produced at an elite rate in five of the last six years at more than three points per 60 minutes. When healthy Kane can be counted on for to put up a point per game. The Blackhawks are lucky enough to have a Patrick Kane clone in Teuvo Teravainen. Teuvo time in Chicago reached a new level during the playoffs as he produced 10 points in 17 games, a huge jump from the nine points he had in 34 regular season games. He will not be as bad as he was during the regular season but do not expect him to produce as he did during the playoffs either. He rarely shoots and will rely on his linemates, so 30 to 40 points is a reasonable range of production.

Kris Versteeg played nearly 700 minutes with Patrick Kane over the last two years. He is on the ice for an extra goal for per 60 minutes at even strength when he plays with Kane. It is no surprise that more than 60% of his points at even strength have come while playing with Kane. With the Hawks having to dump players for next season Versteeg is almost guaranteed to play with Kane next year. He does not get enough power play time to be a major producer but he should hit 40 points if he plays a full season with Kane. Andrew Shaw is another viable as an option to line up alongside Patrick Kane. He had a lot of success in that role during the 2013/14 season, his rate of production was one and a half times higher that season than either this season or 2012/13. Playing with Kane he can be a 40 point player, anything else is a huge reach as he gets limited power play time, otherwise he will not break 25 points. Shaw brings additional value with 50+ Pims and 150 hits each season.

Duncan Keith is not a 60 point defenseman even though he has twice hit those heights during his career. Expecting that level of production consistently from Keith will only leave poolies disappointed. In the seasons Keith failed to reach 60 points he has produced at a clip of at least 1.2 points per 60 minutes. He is a consistent bet for 45 points, pencil him in for that and pray for another 60 point season. When Duncan Keith hits 60 points, Brent Seabrook hits 40 points otherwise he is good for 30 points. With all the minutes Seabrook plays he is good for 125+ hits and blocks giving him some additional value in multi-category leagues.

With Chicago having to let a number of regulars go in order to assuage their cap issues there are going to be more opportunities for younger players to step up. Artemi Panarin was brought in from the KHL and Kyle Baun was signed out of the NCAA for that reason. Phillip Danault and Mark McNeill are coming off AHL seasons that suggest they are ready for a depth NHL role at the very least. Of the four Panarin looks like the best fantasy option but with six legitimate top six forwards, plus Teravainen, third line minutes is probably the best for which any of them can hope.

The same situation exists on defense where Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Michael Paliotta and Ville Pokka look to be next in line. Van Riemsdyk should be a lock for a third pairing spot but there is limited fantasy potential. Pokka coming from the AHL probably has the leg up on Paliotta for a roster spot as long as Cumiskey and Rundblad are not brought back. Do not expect much in either case as the best case scenario is some second unit power play and maybe 20 points.

 

UFA: Antoine Vermette, Brad Richards, Andrew Desjardins, Dan Carcillo, Johnny Oduya, Michael Rozsival, Kimmo Timonen, Kyle Cumiskey

RFA: Marcus Kruger, Brandon Saad, Joakim Nordstrom, David Rundblad

 

2015 Offseason Fantasy Look: Anaheim (http://hockey.dobbersports.com/The-Wild-West/2015-offseason-fantasy-look-anaheim)

 

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