August 12 2015

Dobber

2015-08-12

 

The impact of Stoll, the questions surrounding where Zacha will play, where I rank the remaining free agents; and more…

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As you know by now, the Rangers signed center Jarret Stoll Monday. He won 51% of his faceoffs last year and took over 1100 of them. Derick Brassard took 1376, and Derek Stepan took 1232. Dominic Moore took 1074. And there you have your four centermen. I say this because I figured Kevin Hayes would be the third-line center, having taken 681 faceoffs last year. However, I was surprised to see that he won just 36.3% of them. That's poor even by rookie standards. So while I don't look at Stoll in terms of fantasy value anymore – his last 40-point year was 2010-11 – I do look at the domino effect. And in this case it means Hayes moves to the wing. And this probably puts him and J.T. Miller on the line with Stoll, and pushes Viktor Stalberg or Jesper Fast out of the lineup. And to me, that's a downgrade. Stoll watched his ice time and general overall effectiveness (-12.2 CorsiRel) slip with each passing week. I suspect you'll see Stoll slipping to 'fringe player' by late December, and barring several lineup injuries he'll see stints in the press box. But early on in the campaign, his 13 or 14 minutes per game are bound to impact the likes of Miller, Hayes, Stalberg and Emerson Etem negatively.

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Fantasy Hockey Geek  users – please bear with us. We're focusing on getting that fixed so that the Geek site can automatically recognize that a user paid for the package on the Dobber site. With the new shop, this has required some changes and we haven't quite nailed it yet. But getting close. I honestly hope that by Wednesday night you can start getting in there and doing your thing. And knowing Jamie and Paul, the Geek founders, they'll make it happen if my developer can't. I apologize for the delay there.

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Remember when Matt Carkner was hot shit when he became a UFA last time? A huge, hulking defenseman who came from nowhere to make the Sens and become a regular and an enforcer. I say "from nowhere" because he was 29 when he made the NHL, but really he was drafted in the second round back in 1999. Anyway, in 2012 I remember the Avalanche announcing they had signed him as a UFA and he publicly put the brakes on that announcement and then turned around and signed with the Islanders. Anyway, last year he cleared waivers and stayed in the AHL with Bridgeport and yesterday he signed an AHL contract with him. It was a fun ride while it lasted Matt! In 237 games he had 556 PIM.

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The Devils signed their prize winger Pavel Zacha to an ELC. Now this one is an interesting case because the Devils are desperate for a player like this. He's already the best talent in the organization when it comes to forwards. New Jersey of old would have thrown him in there and either he works out or he doesn't. But with new management in place and perhaps some lessons learned from rushing Mattias Tedenby and Jacob Josefson, they keep him out of the NHL for two years. On talent alone, he makes this team. But is the goal here to make the playoffs? Surely they can't be that deluded. So assuming they understand that they won't make the playoffs…do they risk upsetting the fans? Who do you think would add more entertainment value to their product – a skilled defenseman like Adam Larsson, a strong goalie like Cory Schneider, or a shifty forward like Zacha? (hint: Martin Brodeur could hardly keep the place half full). More on Zacha here.

And excuse the mess over at DobberProspects – the content is there, but there's lots to clean up and organize and even with over a dozen active writers and editors getting at it, we've only started a few days ago.

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According to our buddies over at Cap Friendly, 26 free agents who haven't yet signed made at least $2 million last year. And I'm looking at the list of remaining guys and just thinking – 'brutal'. Here's how I would rank them ($2 million or more last year):

 

Awesome "must have": _________

Pretty good assets: Cody Franson

Average, could take or leave: Christian Ehrhoff, Carl Hagelin (an RFA with Anaheim)

Worth a sub-$1 million risk: Jiri Tlusty, Curtis Glencross

Two-way contract offer: Marek Zidlicky, (I'd stick Stoll here), Martin Erat, Tomas Fleischmann, Sean Bergenheim, Scottie Upshall, Rich Peverley

An ECHL contract at best: the rest of them. That includes names like Ryder, Gonchar, Briere, Visnovsky, etc.

 

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Players I would put on my team, were I an NHL GM, who were below that $2 million threshold (I'll only include UFA's here, since the RFA's at this salary level were pretty good): Mike Santorelli, Derek Roy, Lee Stempniak. That's it. Just a weak crop of free agents this year.

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UFA's I would sign to minor-league deals just to see: Mark Visentin, Edward Pasquale, Jesse Blacker, Tomas Vincour. Just some still youthful players who once had potential, and I'd put them on my AHL team to see what they've got. You just never know.

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Kevin Poulin signed a one-year deal with the Isles, but it's a two-way agreement. He's behind Halak and Greiss of course and by this point it's pretty clear he's not going to become an NHLer. And frankly, I think Stephon Williams will steal the AHL job from him. In fact, I really pumped Williams' tires in the Fantasy Prospects Report – I like his situation and he's coming off a great season.

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By 'situation' I mean that he's 22 and should be NHL-ready just when Halak's contract comes to an end. The timing just works, and it's in an organization that is going to win for a long time. If you don't mind a goalie on your bench for three years, Williams is your guy.

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The NHLPA finally decided to grieve the contract termination of Mike Richards. Why? Well, because they can. Nobody's shocked by this, but I wonder if a win here would put him back in a Los Angeles uniform. And if so, how would that go?

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Washington backup goalie Justin Peters underwent knee surgery. I'm not going to disclose to you whether or not the surgery was deemed successful, I'll just leave you on the edge of your seat wondering.

Peters will be the backup this season, but won't be the starter if Braden Holtby gets hurt. We already saw in the postseason that it will be Phillip Grubauer who would take over. I'm seeing in some articles that Grubauer would need to clear waivers though – and if that's the case, he'll be the backup to Holtby while Peters goes to the minors. Either way, Grubauer is playing about 15 or 20 games this year.

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Here are some hilarious photoshop pictures of Phil Kessel after his new picture in a Penguins' uniform was tweeted out by the team.

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My Fantasy Prospect Rankings were posted yesterday with the usual discussion. As with all rankings, you're going to disagree with some and agree with others. And you know what? So do I. With my own rankings. I wake up one day and think the guy at 33 should be more like 21. But then the next day I'll wake up and think he should be 45. This is precisely the reason why I basically look at the rating and any player within 5.0 rating points of another player should be considered equal in terms of value. I mean, my player ranked 30 (Dickinson) I wouldn't trade straight up for the guy at 21 (Dal Colle) or the guy at 44 (Rychel). Because I don’t waste my time trading for the sake of trading and I don’t see a tangible benefit here. Now, this is 'all things being equal'. Naturally if I wanted a contingent of Red Wings then I'd do a sideways move like Dickinson for Pulkkinen. Or if I had a personal 'hunch'. But if not, they're all equal within that +/- 5.0 range.

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ICYMI I posted my fantasy outlook for the Bruins. Here is the series so far:

 

Flames

 

Sabres

 

Bruins

 

Coyotes

 

Ducks

 

 

9 Comments

  1. Peter Dallara 2015-08-12 at 12:23

    I would have thought that Stoll would center Moore on the 4th line. Putting Stoll or Moore on the 3rd line might weaken the offense.

    Hope the Rangers will provide free straws in the dressing room.

    • Dobber Sports 2015-08-12 at 20:31

      I sincerely hope they do this (the line combo, not the straws)

  2. Chad Burly 2015-08-12 at 13:25

    Did Justin Peters make it out alive???!!!????

  3. Jeremy Wark 2015-08-12 at 14:08

    Just to note, Visentin and Blacker have both signed AHL contracts with the Blackhawks and Stars respectively.

    • Dobber Sports 2015-08-12 at 20:30

      Actually, brain cramp, I knew about the Blacker one. Didn't know about Visentin – nice work Chicago!

  4. striker777 2015-08-12 at 14:21

    Isn't Zacha a centre not a prised winger?

    • Dobber Sports 2015-08-12 at 20:30

      Most of the kids start as wingers and if center is in their future that gets eased in later

  5. Nick Somers 2015-08-12 at 15:59

    Why is the UFA Finder not showing Brad Boyes?

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