November 18 2015

by Dobber on November 18, 2015

Rambling about hot goaltenders, cold superstars, some deeper waiver options and more …

***

Run towards the fire. That’s the theme of today’s Ramblings. #runtowardsthefire

The stars in Pittsburgh and in Tampa Bay are still trying to find their way. Anaheim and Columbus too, though at least those guys are starting to show signs of life. This is not the time to panic. I know it sucks, sitting in eighth place (or worse) with what you thought was a good team. Just ride it out. I know it’s late – nearing the end of November. But things will work out. I’m not saying that Sidney Crosby will get 100 points. Or even 80 points. But he’s not going to end up with 43 points (his pace heading into Tuesday’s action). So we know he’ll turn it on, but does that mean 60 points or 75? If it’s 75 he needs 66 points in 58 games. Crosby can do that in his sleep. You know it’s true.

I’m just trying to talk you off the ledge.

Steven Stamkos – 57 points? I don’t think so. His low is probably 70. I would be shocked if he gets below that at any point before his early 30s. So 70 points (his worst-case) would mean 56 points in 62 games. More than doable. So just ride it out. He has seven points in his last eight games so he’s showing signs.

Nikita Kucherov – Less of a track record, but I’m no less convinced that he’s a star. His pace is 41 points. Come on! You know he’ll beat that. Now, because he’s not as proven I’d be willing to concede that maybe he has an off year of 50 points. But a bigger part of me believes that 65 to 70 is still in the cards. To get to 65 he needs 55 in 62 games. Easy for him. He already has eight in his last nine.

*

I noticed some chatter about Sami Vatanen in the forum yesterday. Here’s a guy already turning it around, if you haven’t noticed. Five points in his last five games as the Ducks try to recover. He’s a buy-low candidate because his pace is for 32 and yet he’ll get to 50 or close to it. That means 43 points in 63 games. Doable.

*

Malkin is already breaking free. A four-point game last night gives him 16 in 18. He’s still not where he should be, but he’s getting there.

Here is one of the best goals you’ll ever see. Your jaw will drop when you see it the first time, and your eyes will bug out of your head when you see the replays. WOW…

*

Four points in his last four games for Kris Letang. Another guy bouncing back. Now somebody wake up Crosby.

*

Olli Maatta left the game with an injury. This is terrible. Ugly. Nino Niederreiter may get suspended once the league looks at this:

*

The Flyers lost but it took the shootout. So with Mark Streit on the sidelines, the team is 1-0-1 and now Michael Del Zotto is producing. Ditto for prospect Shayne Gostisbehere, who scored his first last night. Two points in two games for each of them. Ghost saw 5:38 on the PP while MDZ saw 2:40.

Back to the slumping stars topic – Jakub Voracek has back-to-back two-point efforts. That gives him nine points on the season, so yes nearly half of his points in 17 games have come in the last two. And Claude Giroux has seven in his last six games. Market corrections for established stars – you can always count on them.

I found it interesting that Sean Couturier saw 4:04 of power-play time. That’s a season high. And it’s due to the Streit injury. The Flyers are rolling with this PP unit:

#1           30.6%    GIROUX,CLAUDE – SCHENN,BRAYDEN – SIMMONDS,WAYNE – VORACEK,JAKUB

#2           30.6%    COUTURIER,SEAN – GIROUX,CLAUDE – SCHENN,BRAYDEN – SIMMONDS,WAYNE

#3           22.2%    COUTURIER,SEAN – GAGNER,SAM – READ,MATT

DEFENCE

#1           61.1%    GOSTISBEHERE,SHAYNE

#2           30.6%    DEL ZOTTO,MICHAEL – MANNING,BRANDON

 

Four forwards plus Gostisbehere, who had his goal on the PP. And yes, you’ll be seeing me type “Ghost” a lot as his name because it takes a couple of seconds to type his real name and I just don’t have that kind of time…

*

You can get that PP info free at Frozen Pool. Or click any player name and the info is there as well. Bookmark it!

*

Melker Karlsson is off to another hot start. He did this last year too. Last year he had 10 points in 14 games shortly after he was called up. This time (so far) it’s three points in three games. He’s playing with Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski, so short term he makes a pretty good pickup. But I have very little faith in his overall upside and classify him in the same area that I classify a Jannik Hansen.

*

Zdeno Chara has 10 points in 15 games this season, which is half of his output that he had all of last year. A last hurrah? Last year it took him 24 games to get as many points. I thought his 40-point days were behind him, but I’m starting to question that. I still believe the 38-year-old is done with 50. His current pace is for 53.

Jimmy Hayes. Now we’re seeing the dark side of his Force. Pointless in five games after 11 points in nine games (and pointless in three before that). In weekly leagues it’s almost impossible to properly ride these waves without a lot of luck.

The Bruins seem to like Tyler Randall, a prospect who is more of a fighter than anything else. He saw just four minutes of ice time last night (Zac Rinaldo, his linemate, saw similar minutes), but Claude Julien seems content with rolling three lines and spotting in Joonas Kemppainen to give players in the top nine some rest. Randell’s minutes won’t improve any, but if you need PIM you could ride him for a few games. He has 14 PIM this season despite a total of about 28 minutes in ice time.

Three wins in a row for Martin Jones, so he’s back in the saddle. Sorry Stalock owners. Peter DeBoer will lean on Jones every chance he can. Even when Jones is in a slump, he’ll get a lot of leash.

*

After six games without a point Cody Franson has nine in his last 12 games. True story – after those six games I panicked. I’m normally quite patient (see opening paragraph), but I’ve never been truly comfortable with Franson. Too much coach’s doghouse time throughout his career. I made an offer with he and a fringe player for Cam Fowler. The other guy dragged his feet for two days, Franson got two points in the seventh game, and so I withdrew my offer.

John Klingberg got no points. I’m just going to mention those games when it comes to him, because they’re more notable.

*

Dobbernomics BETA users – we need your help! We gave everyone 10 bonus transactions because we want to see some buy/sell movement to evaluate the value adjustments and player movement. Even if you don’t have a Dobbernomics team – quickly create one and then in a couple of days go in and make some moves. Try and push your team value to $60 million (you start at $50 million) on the year. Think of it as “practice” for the playoffs when this thing truly launches.

Other Dobbernomics notes – wow, adding players is now lightning quick. I remember when this BETA first launched it was super slow. Also, league and world ranks for your team is now up and running as of TODAY. Thanks for your help. Lots of big plans for this game, including stock market tickers, graphs, charts, etc.

*

Ryan Johansen and Brandon Saad each have five points in their last four games. Boone Jenner is the other linemate and he also has five points (though was shutout last night). Columbus line combos last night:

#1           31.6%    JENNER,BOONE – JOHANSEN,RYAN – SAAD,BRANDON

#2           15.2%    BOURQUE,RENE – CALVERT,MATTHEW – KARLSSON,WILLIAM

#3           14.6%    ATKINSON,CAM – FOLIGNO,NICK – HARTNELL,SCOTT

#4           12.3%    BOLL,JARED – CAMPBELL,GREGORY – RYCHEL,KERBY

*

Since October 24, Sergei Bobrovsky has the following numbers:

10 GP and 7 W; 2.26 GAA and 0.925 SV%

You can calculate a goalie’s numbers in any time range you want using our new goalie calculator (here).

*

Brian Elliott gets his first start in a million years and has his best outing of the season, stopping 35 of 37…and taking the loss. Interestingly enough, he’s lost twice this year and both time he allowed just two goals. Back to Allen we go…

*

Jori Lehtera left the game after taking a stick to the mouth and throat. He was taken to hospital. Brandon Saad did not get a penalty on the play. Here is the clip:

*

So all that Reto Berra magic I’ve mused about the last couple of Ramblings has worn off. He gave up four goals on 26 shots. Let’s give him a Mulligan. But one thing I’m wary of is Calvin Pickard. He got his foot in the door last night when Berra was yanked, and we saw last year that when Pickard gets a foot in the door, he could run with it. But I say Coach Roy still rolls with Berra.

*

An interesting option for you – Peter Holland has six points in his last five games. His ice time hasn’t increased one iota, he’s doing this with about 10:30 per game.

I placed a wager on the “under” when I was given 35.5 points for PA Parenteau back in September. So that means he’ll have a career year and blow past that number. That’s the Dobber luck this year so far. So pick him up with full confidence that this streak continues (seven points in his last eight games).

*

Can a Toronto goalie, at any point this season, go 5-1-2? Apparently so. James Reimer’s numbers since November 2: 5-1-2, 1.71 GAA and 0.949 SV%.

*

Speaking of hot goalies – nine straight starts for Karri Ramo. It’s not often that a player who was doing so poorly that he was sent through waivers to the minors, gets this much opportunity to snap out of his slump. His last seven games he’s 4-3-0, 2.44 GAA and 0.918 SV%