Ramblings: Big Buff Back; Mason on Fire, Caggiula Sneaky-Good Pickup (Dec 7)

Dobber

2016-12-07

Ramblings: Big Buff is back, Mason on fire, Caggiula a sneaky-good pickup

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The Zetterberg-Mantha-Tatar line is still rolling along nicely. Between that line combo and the Howard injury, the Wings have found a bit of magic going 5-1-2 in their last eight. Six of those eight games have gone to overtime. The line combination, in the unlikely event that it sticks for the duration, has the potential to push Anthony Mantha up over 45 points this season. I’d pencil him in for the low 30s for now, and assume the line gets broken up when they hit a wall (could be a week, could be a month) or when someone (ahem – Zetterberg) gets injured. It’s also got Tatar rolling as he has four points in his last three games.

Dustin Byfuglien has been on fire. I was starting to think that the 31-year-old was beginning to fade, but he has points in five straight and seven of his last eight. In the last two games he’s taken 14 shots on goal. Kudos to you if you were able to pick him up on the cheap say two weeks ago.

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Richard Panik had 10 points in 10 games to start the season, but his assist last night gives him just two points in his last 18 games. He played with Tyler Motte and Dennis Rasmussen, but he saw a fair bit of PP time. He’s not nearly as good as his start would indicate, but he’s also not so horrible as what we’ve seen this past month. But obviously I’ve downgraded him from the 50 points I said last month that he’d get. His pace is for 35 points right now, but I think he will get 37-41.

Scott Darling is 1-2-0 since Crawford went down, after last night’s shutout. The Blackhawks next play on back-to-back nights on December 17 and 18 and I suspect that Corey Crawford will be back for that. We always hear a hockey player, after an appendectomy, returns a week or two early. The 18th would be 15 days, which is six days shy of the three-week estimate. So my guess is that we won’t see Lars Johansson.

Marian Hossa’s market correction had been steep and it hit fast. Just one point over eight games after starting off with 17 in 18. But he got two last night, so his current pace (click his name to see his pace, and other stats) is for 60 points.

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Another goalie injury that has vaulted another goaltender’s value upwards is the Philadelphia situation with Michael Neuvirth (the injured) and Steve Mason (the beneficiary). Devoid of competition, Mason has been absolutely rolling. He’s won five in a row and made 42 saves last night. His stats are slowly creeping up towards ‘respectable’. During his winning streak his GAA is 1.74 and his SV% is 0.947.

Rookie Travis Konecny saw just 11:50 of ice time last night, which was his second lowest total of the season. And his lowest total came about when he had 17 minutes in penalties. So consider last night his ‘actual’ lowest.

Philly defensemen on the power play last night:

Shayne Gostisbehere 4:03

Ivan Provorov 1:39

Mark Streit 1:04

Andrew MacDonald 0:29

Michael Del Zotto 0:00

The Ghost is still king, Streit is getting pushed further down, and MDZ has become a PP afterthought (if you haven’t noticed already).

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Keith Yandle has now played in 578 consecutive games but it almost ended last night. He took a shot off the foot Monday and was supposed to be “out for a while”. But he ended up actually playing last night. That being said, I suspect he’ll be playing at half-speed for the next couple of months. So if you were expecting 16 points in his next 28 games you can probably dial that down to eight or nine points. Call it a hunch.

Florida line combinations without Jonathan Marchessault:

#1           24.9%    BARKOV,ALEKSANDER – JAGR,JAROMIR – SMITH,REILLY

#2           23.5%    JOKINEN,JUSSI – SCEVIOUR,COLTON – TROCHECK,VINCENT

#3           11.7%    BJUGSTAD,NICK – MALGIN,DENIS – THOMPSON,PAUL

#4           7.5%      MACKENZIE,DEREK – RAU,KYLE – THORNTON,SHAWN

It’s already paying dividends for Reilly Smith, who picked up an assist last night.

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Two more points for Johnny Gaudreau. And Alex Chiasson is still leeching from that. I’m sure he’s available in your league so scoop him up if you want some short-term offense. I suspect Gaudreau will be one of the hottest players in the league for the next couple of weeks and Chiasson will be in on some of that for sure.

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With the goal last night, PK Subban has 17 points in 25 games. Shea Weber has 18 in 26. The gap is closing!

Small sample size, but given Pekka Rinne’s play over the last season or two I’m a little concerned. And I will be concerned every time he has two weak games in a row. One game, sure, that can be a one-off. But I cringe every time he strings back-to-back stinkers. Fortunately this season that hasn’t happened…until now. He’s given up eight goals in the last 50 shots. The Preds did get the win last night though, and they’ve been red hot. That should be enough to pull him out of his mini-funk. Still worried.

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Semyon Varlamov – four losses in a row and 5-12-0, 3.08, 0.905

Calvin Pickard – 4-2-1, 2.44, 0.920.

Are the Avs just gonna punt the season, I guess? If so, and they get eliminated early, I wonder if they shop Varlamov?

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Alex Steen has five points in three games since his return.

David Perron has zero points in three games since Steen’s return. Perron had been white-hot during Steen’s absence.

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Anders Lee has quietly picked up six points in seven games despite not playing on a top line.

Prospect defenseman Scott Mayfield has been quite fantasy relevant in each of the three games that he’s played this season. He had 17 PIM in the first game, two assists in the second game, and a goal in the third contest. The points are an illusion, as he’s likely a future 15-point player. But he has tremendous potential in the PIM and hits category.

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Kevin Hayes has now gone pointless in five straight. But his ice time has remained stable (18-plus minutes per game lately) and he saw 3:52 of PP time last night. So he’s getting a chance to work out of his funk. He had been playing with Rick Nash and Jimmy Vesey, but Nash was injured and left the game. JT Miller took his spot.

Nash tweaked his groin and is day to day for now.

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Philip Larsen was carried off on a stretcher after this brutal-looking (but in my opinion clean) hit. Tough to watch:

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Julius Honka left last night’s game with a UBI and was later seen in a cast. That being said:

Honka has a great future with the Stars, but has zero fantasy relevance this season. I think he makes the team full time next year, but has little impact fantasy-wise. Expect him to start being useful to your team in 2018-19.

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Mark Fayne left last night’s game. Normally that doesn’t mean anything, but the Oilers already have Darnell Nurse on the sidelines and we’re all well aware of just how shallow the defense corps is there. In the minors, Griffin Reinhart (back) has only just returned from injury and has played just eight games so far. And Jordan Oesterle is also sidelined. Will this force the Oilers to make a move?

Drake Caggiula played on the Connor McDavid line last night and promptly posted two points. He’s worth a flier as this could really pay off. Leon Draisaitl also saw time on that line, but given Caggiula got the points I’m guessing he’ll see some more time there.

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Streaks – Josh Bailey and Blake Wheeler are on six-game points streaks. Dustin Byfuglien, Sean Monahan and Kris Versteeg are on five gamers. You can get a quick rundown of hot players by checking out our hot/cold tool.

 

 

18 Comments

  1. Vladimir Blutin 2016-12-07 at 02:48

    Tatar or Mantha for rest of season? g a ppp +/-

    • Dobber 2016-12-07 at 07:36

      You take the player who is certain to remain in the NHL, reduce your risk

  2. Mathieu 2016-12-07 at 07:23

    Only 7 games and a half into his career, Julius Honka already has 21 shots on goals and 3 points while having no luck whatsoever (0 SH%, 2.94 5on5-SH%). He’s had 42.5 PP%, skates like Nikolaj Ehlers, plays a rather rare puck-rushing style, is one of the only two right-hand shots among the Stars’ blueliners and was already trusted with playing the first shift in overtime and filling in Klingberg’s role twice.

    Why would he not be Fantasy relevant before 2018-2019?

    • Dobber 2016-12-07 at 07:33

      Because of JK and EL. He’s not going to be helpful this year at all, and I made the not-that-crazy prediction that he won’t be helpful next year. He’s also a minus-7, which hints that there’s some work to do.

      • Mathieu 2016-12-07 at 19:26

        I don’t buy this. Honka’s got the same kinks in his defense as most offensively-oriented defensemen. Karlsson, Subban and Shattenkirk are certainly not known for their defensive prowess. Honka’s a rookie who will get better as he gains experience, but he won’t ever turn into the poster-boy for hermetic defense. On the other hand, his built and skillset scream offense.

        For the same reason, Esa Lindell doesn’t stand in his way because he is too defensively-responsible. Sure, he can put up points on the board, but he will grow into the defensive conscience of his pairing, getting occasional production boosts when a power play fixture is injured. He is the Pietrangelo to Honka’s Shattenkirk.

        As per Lindy Ruff : “That’s a big part of who we want to be. A big strong guy that can defend and is mobile, can play the bigger minutes without any fatigue (Lindell). And then, you have an offensive guy on the other side (Honka), that’s exactly where we want to get to. That would be our perfect pair.”

        I trust you big time Dobber, but on this one, my money stays on Honka outscoring Lindell any season.

        • Dobber 2016-12-07 at 21:12

          That’s fair, man.
          But if I had to bet $1000, and we use 40 points as the bench mark for “valuable” and I had to bet that money on 39 or less for this year or next vs. 40 or more this year or next – I’d put that $1000 on the ‘under’ without even giving it deep thought.

  3. Striker 2016-12-07 at 08:52

    I didn’t like the Hall hit. Larsen’s head was the initial point of contact. Just before Hall’s shoulder contacted Larsen’s head he turned & kind of threw it into Larsen’s head. Should get 3 games.

    • Dobber 2016-12-07 at 09:38

      I didn’t like it either, man. I don’t think anyone did. But I just watched it again after you wrote this and I’m certain Hall started to put the brakes on a split-second before the collision. The principle point of contact is coincidental. And trust me, as you read me you know I’m not a huge Hall fan (Band-Aid Boy) and I am a bit of a Larsen cheerleader. If anything, I’d be looking for an excuse to rake Hall over the coals. But I can’t – Larsen went full steam into him with his head down, Hall started to put the brakes on and seemed to raise his arms (too late) to push him away/ease the hit.
      Hall couldn’t raise his shoulder higher to hit the air, and he couldn’t duck lower or he’d be sitting. So principal point of contact is just bad luck. His skates didn’t leave the ice. He didn’t have time to stop and was unable to turn. Zero games. I wish I could say 10 games, but it will be zero. And deserves zero.
      All the best to Larsen

      • Instant Karma 2016-12-07 at 10:44

        The thing that struck me is that everyone on the ice (except for the officials) seemed to be more interested in joining the melee than in assisting/protecting the prone and unconscious Larsen on the ice.
        It’s scary watching a dozen skates stomping around next to this prone figure.

        • MarkRM16 2016-12-08 at 14:38

          Couldn’t agree more. What if he caught a blade in the face from a team mate? I hope Hall at least catches some flak from his coach for a hit like that when he’s such an injury-prone player – he could have been hurt on the hit and he’s not built for scrums.

      • David Goodburn 2016-12-07 at 12:34

        Agreed. Hall realizes (too late) that this is going to be a dangerous hit and does his best to minimize the impact. Unfortunately for Larsen it was still ended poorly. Hall does not deserve a suspension for the hit. Hopefully Larsen fully recovers.

  4. Jeremy Campbell 2016-12-07 at 10:25

    Having both Gaudreau and Big Buff on my hockey pool team I was getting a bit concerned but that concern is reduced now. Gaudreau could have had 4 goals in the first period last night, and Buff is in beast mode! Now if only Giordano could get going I could move further up the standings. The Hall hit was much like the Wendel Clark one back in the day on Bruce Bell, loved it, but wish Larsen all the best for a quick return.

  5. frozenpools 2016-12-07 at 11:11

    I finally caved in my keeper league and bought into Chad Johnson. I have Quick on the bench all year so Im hoping he can continue as the starter for the rest of the year. Dobber are you buying in or did I move too early?

    • Dobber 2016-12-07 at 11:33

      He looks good for at least another month, but I’m not completely on board for the season just yet

  6. Dobber 2016-12-07 at 11:33

    Wow, watch Markstrom when all this goes down. Very protective

  7. Cory 2016-12-07 at 12:03

    I wonder if Larsen really appreciated Sbisa coming in to ‘defend’ him and promptly kicking him in the head as he lay on the ice.

    No, it’s not a violent kick, but the following accidental kicks to the head from the Devils who are rushing in to ‘protect’ Hall from Sbisa (and others) are even firmer.

    Sometimes I just can’t help but think that people are complete morons. Let’s protect our teammate who might have a concussion by smacking him around the head and maybe creating a situation where we can all fall on top of him while he’s unconscious. I’m sure that will prevent NHL players from using body contact against him in the future.

  8. Cory 2016-12-07 at 13:16

    Weird stat:
    After scoring twice last night, Matt Duchene has 9 goals in 9 road games this year.
    In 11 home games, he has yet to score.

  9. Chris 2016-12-08 at 09:42

    Drake Caggulia or Fabbri for the rest of this season all Cats minus Pims

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