Ramblings: Brady Skjei, Plus/Minus talk and some players of interest (Aug. 27)

Neil Parker

2016-08-27

Brady Skjei - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Brady Skjei, Plus/Minus talk and some players of interest …

 

Following the Brandon Pirri signing, and the recent criticism Mike and I have thrown at the Rangers not addressing their blueline, it's clear Brady Skjei is highly regarded. Additionally, Skjei is clearly viewed as a needle mover offensively.

No doubt, his skating ability will erase a lot of shortcomings — similar to Morgan Rielly as he entered the league. Skjei's plus-wheels will enable him to jump up offensively and create odd-man rushes.

Unfortunately, by most accounts, Skjei is still extremely raw offensively, which limits his upside as a fantasy asset. Still, he flashed nicely during the playoffs, and with offensively tilted minutes and zone starts, the rookie is a player to watch.

Another angle from the real-world perspective is New York has assembled nice assets and provided an opportunity to take a long look at Skjei and its blue line. If it doesn't jive, the Rangers are in a position to make a move for a rearguard without sacrificing the punch of their forward corps.

There is also a chance it is Dylan McIlrath who the Rangers have faith in, but given Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal and Kevin Klein all have enough sandpaper in their games, Skjei should break camp as the sixth defenseman.

 

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This was an interesting tweet:

 

 

It made me wonder about plus/minus. As a general rule, the statistic is panned for fantasy purposes. But, because it is used in plenty of leagues, including at one particular daily site, it's foolish to ignore it entirely.

Here's a quick breakdown of how random it is, though.

Over the past three seasons, only 67 times has a player scored at least 35 points and posted a plus-20 rating. No player has done it in each of the past three seasons, and only Tyler Johnson, Anze Kopitar, Chris Kunitz, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Ondrej Palat, Joe Pavelski, Vladimir Tarasenko, Joe Thornton, Jonathan Toews and Tyler Toffoli have hit the benchmarks twice.

Looking at the other side, just 30 times has a player scored at least 35 points while positing a minus-20 rating over the past three seasons. No one has done it each year, and Sam Gagner, Elias Lindholm and Keith Yandle have hit the marks twice.

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Generally speaking, your plus/minus ratings for fantasy-level players are falling between plus-20 and minus-20, and across a 15- to 25-man roster, it shouldn't be a huge focus. At the same time, it's likely ill-advised to load up your roster with players from teams likely to contend for the draft lottery.

In leagues including real-time stats (shots, blocked shots and hits), there could be an advantage to stocking your final two defense spots with defensemen who tip the scales in the three mentioned stats from good teams. Also, in rotisserie leagues, it is a statistic you can pick away at and address through streaming.

All said, as long as you're not neglecting plus/minus, it won't be your demise.

 

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theScore.ca continues to roll out what will be an impressive fantasy kit. Here are a few takeaways inspired by a quick run through the goods.

Robin Lehner enters his age-25 season with 97 career starts and an up-and-coming team in front of him. He owns the desirable frame and has flashed exceptional upside. He has his entire career ahead of him and very little competition for starts, if he can stay healthy. Given his likely asking price, you could have a fringe No. 1 goalie on your hands at the cost of a No. 3.

Jacob Markstrom isn't worth a roster spot in single-year leagues. Just don't. Taking a backup on good teams who plays 17 games is better than Markstrom's 35 starts with Vancouver. He's going to be your No. 3 or No. 4 goalie and how many nights are your top goalies going to have daunting enough matchups that you're going to confidently roll out Markstrom?

What odds would you need to back Connor Hellebuyck as a top-10 fantasy goalie for next season? Everything lines up perfectly with Winnipeg trending in the right direction, and it'd be nearly impossible to miss as many man games as last season. Hellebuyck paced goalies with at least 1,000 minutes in five-on-five save percentage (.941) last season, after all. Also, if you're worried about Ondrej Pavelec, just remember … the season lasts until April.

Damon Severson is a nice late-round flier. He wasn't utilized properly/enough last season with just 18:10 minutes per game and only 1:42 of power-play time. There is absolutely no guarantee anything will change this season, but New Jersey isn't as abysmal offensively as the masses will think. 30 points are well within reach without much change, and remember, Severson debuted with four goals and four helpers over the first 11 games of his career.

Charlie Coyle is power-play looks away from posting a 50-point season. He notched a career-high six PP points last year despite averaging just 2:05 minutes per night with the man advantage. Head coach Bruce Boudreau should turn to his best players, and there's a legitimate shot he views Coyle as one of the top wingers on the team. For comparison sake, Coyle (1.49) beat Jack Eichel (1.48) in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season.

Kevin Fiala hasn't garnered a lot of buzz during the offseason, and he's not glowingly projected in our Prospect Guide (Expected Arrival – Will have cups of coffee with club/get a look this year, full-time in 2017-18). Nashville only has nine forwards on one-way contracts, though, and Fiala could easily prove to be a superior offensive option on a scoring line than Calle Jarnkrok or Colin Wilson. Fiala is a prized piece in the organization and has little to prove at the AHL level after scoring 50 points — 18 goals — over 66 games last year. He's a strong camp away from sticking with Nashville.

 

***

 

Enjoy the weekend, Dobberheads.

 

 

16 Comments

  1. mike 2016-08-27 at 06:46

    Neil,

    Question on your comments about the Rangers D situation. Well actually a few.
    1st you listed their 4 dmen and the question (how I read it) is that the last spot will go to either skjei or Mcilrath. But you only listed 4. Do you see both of them being 5/6?
    Also, mcdonagh is a good player, but I’m not sure there is much sandpaper to his game, nor really any of the 4 listed , save Klein.

    Could you just expand on your thought a little bit? I’m mostly interested in Mcilrath and how you see him being utilized this year.
    Thanks buddy

    • Peter Dallara 2016-08-27 at 08:45

      I believe Nick Holden is the aforementioned missing defenseman.

      • Neil Parker 2016-08-27 at 12:33

        Correct — Nick Holden.
        McDonagh isn’t a push over and is a capable shut-down defenseman – that takes some “sandpaper.”

        • mike 2016-08-27 at 12:55

          Ok thanks guys. Forgot about Holden

  2. Striker 2016-08-27 at 08:26

    I don’t share your feelings on the Rangers or their D. It’s solid, not top flight like an Anaheim or Nashville the leagues best, nor does it have the solid top 4 of a StL or Chi but it’s a solid group & more than capable of helping NYR be a cup contender next season. It’s better than 1/2 the teams in the NHL & in some odd scenario where you factor in goaltending & team play, better yet.

    Calgary had what appeared to be a great D last season on papaer. Giordano; 82 games played, Brodie; 70 games, Hamilton; 82 games, Russell; 51 games, Wideman; 51 games, suspended 20 games, later reduced to 10 after already having served 20!, Engelland; 69 games, & numerous others filling out games missed by the top 5. The results weren’t very positive. A great D but bad results.

    Or how about or Cup champion Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh D looked brutal on paper going into the playoffs had Daley been healthy which he wasn’t, yet they some how managed to win it all. SJ made Cole & Lovejoy look like Bourque & Coffee they gave them so much time to move the puck. Letang, Dumoulin; what a coming out party, Maata; Sullivan wouldn’t even play him at 1st in the playoffs, Daley, Schultz & Cole are Pittsburgh’s top 6 next season, Pouliot & Warofsky rounding out the group. Is that D any better than NYR’s was it even in last seasons playoffs on paper?

    Skjei will be a regular next season; there is a reason he was a 1st round selection, his coming out party stared in the playoffs last season where Vigneault showed a surprising amount of confidence in his game even giving him reasonable power play time. He had 2 points in 5 games getting 18:27 TOI/GP, 1:08 PP TOI/GP. McIlrath got into 2 playoff games & when he played he got 9:07 TOI/GP. Although McIlrath got into 34 regular season games last season he was drafted 2 years earlier & more suited to sitting regularly, in the 7 regular season games Skjei saw he got 3:37 more TOI/GP per game than McIlrath & that trend continued when someone had to play in the playoffs. Now that said, Skjei won’t play 82 games even if healthy. He’ll make some mistakes & he’ll get some nights off, so McIlrath & Clendening can get some games not solely due to injury.

    McDonaugh, Girardi.
    Staal, Klein.
    Holden, Skjei.
    McIlrath, Clendening.

    The interesting thing about that top 6 is that 5 of them are lefties but those 6 baring injury will play the majority of games. McDonaugh will assume the #1 PP point spot like he did before Boyle & Yandle’s arrivals with a forward; most likely Miller manning the other point. The 2nd power play unit will most likely run 4 forwards as well but Skjei will get 1 of those point spots. The other will be shared by in this order. Holden, Clendening when he plays; 20 to 25 games tops, & to a lesser extent & generally only late on long power plays as the team is getting ready to shift back to 5 on 5 play Klein, Girardi or Staal.

    McIlrath’s role on this team will be the same as last season but baring a trade or injuries he may actually play even less games. Vigneault will play him when he wants toughness, physicality, pretty much the extent of McIlrath’s contribution currently. Drafted 6 years ago McIlrath is only 24 but his opportunity to become an NHL Dman is closing fast. He like Forbert who was drafted by LA 5 spots later in 2010 appear to be busts. Drafting size where guys like McIlrath & Forbert are monsters playing with kids doesn’t guarantee NHL success where almost everyone is bigger, stronger & faster & what these players showed there doesn’t necessarily transfer up the ranks but blowing picks this high 10th; McIlrath & 15th; Forbert, isn’t good. Late bloomers? Maybe.

    Thoughts from the bench.

    • Steve 2016-08-27 at 10:54

      NYR cup contender? They may not even make the playoffs. They are rebuilding a bit as they got rid of arguably their best centre in the offseason.

      I agree with you that people vastly underrate D corps around the league, though. As you said, Pittsburgh’s D was nothing special at all. But the thing with Pittsburgh’s D and other Ds around the league is they have a dynamic offensive talent that the Rangers simply don’t have.

      • Striker 2016-08-27 at 11:43

        I don’t share your opinion. We agree to disagree. I have the Rangers as a lock to make the playoffs. They had the 7th best offense in the league last season scoring 233 goals. Kredier, Miller, Hayes, Fast, McDonaugh all have more to give, substantially more. Zibanejad only had 7 less points than Brassard last season & he will outscore him this season. Right on the cusp of breaking through. His 7 GWG’s for Ottawa last season put him in very elite company. Nash will hopefully be healthy & if so that’s going to help as well as are the additions of Vesey & Pirri in the goal scoring depratemnt. Stepan hasn’t put it altogether yet in 1 full season. It’s coming.

        I also really like Skjei. He is going to essentially play a full time role. He’s been brought along perfectly. His TOI/GP should have him at 5 or 6 at D in NYR when all is said & done next season. As stated above he will get a few nights off, 6 to 12 not counting games lost to injury unless he flops in camp & the preseason which I don’t expect but certainly possible to allow for McIlrath & Clendening to get some games.

        Grabner will significantly help the penalty kill a sore spot last season as will Nash if healthy.

        At 34 Lundqvist isn’t old by goalie standards. The elite goalies in the NHL have played very well right into their late 30’s. See Brodeur, Roy, Luongo, Miller, etc. I’m not betting against Lundqvist who’s .920 SV% in 64 GS last year for all goalies that played at least 41 games, 1/2 their teams starts, finishing in a tie for 10th but in legitimate #1’s goalies that played at least 55 starts, the real threshold for me for starters, he finished 7th right there with the best goalies in the NHL just nominally below them in SV%. His 35 wins tied him for 4th in the NHL. I don’t see that changing baring injury but actually I have him winning closer to 40 a threshold very few can break.

        This is a very good team & really quite young. Lundqvist is the oldest at 34. Nash, Girardi & Glass the next at 32, Klein 31 & then the rest are all under 30 the majority significantly so.

        Kredier, Stepan, Zuccarello.
        Miller, Zibanejad, Nash.
        Vesey, Hayes, Pirri.
        Fast, Jooris; until Lindberg returns, Grabner.
        Spares. Glass & Gerbe.

        McDonaugh, Girardi.
        Staal, Klein.
        Skjei, Holden.
        McIlrath, Clendening.

        Lundqvist, Raanta.

        I can’t see any scenario other than significant injures to multiple top end players, 1 of which would have to be Lundqvist for this team not to make the playoffs in the East & I may take them at 26:1 as a flyer on wager for the cup if those odds hold. Say $100 to $500 hedging the bet in someway yet to be determined.

        • Mark Legolas Stone 2016-08-27 at 12:09

          Zibanejad won’t outscore Brassard and GWG is not an important stat whatsoever. It’s a flawed statistic and anyone who knows stats knows this.

          Zibanejad put up points when the season was out of reach and he played with arguably the best playmaker in hockey and generational talent in Erik Karlsson. Derick Brassard is better in every aspect right now. Trust me, the point difference being small isn’t a testament to their current skill levels. Zibanejad lacks creativity, puck skills, and should not be a centre.

          You are underestimating the impact the loss of Brassard will have. He was ther best centre in the playoffs he last two years as well.

          • Striker 2016-08-27 at 13:36

            I won’t remember your name when it happens to say I told you so but when it does remember this conversation.

            If I’m wrong I will. Time will tell who’s right or wrong.

          • Mark Legolas Stone 2016-08-27 at 14:15

            Ottawa traded for an upgrade at centre. Brassard is a clear upgrade if you have watched both players. Especially when the games are important

          • Striker 2016-08-27 at 16:41

            Ottawa traded to save money. NYR just paid Brassard’s 2 mil bonus on July 1st. Meaning Ottawa is on the hook for 3 mil this year & 3.5 in the following 2.

            Zibanejad is being paid 3.25 this year & then will be an RFA looking for 5 mill per season plus. Zibanejad turned 23 in April & is just scratching the surface of his potential. No where near fully developed & has earned his opportunity very slowly in Ottawa. Go look at his TOI/GP & PP TOI/GP since he became a regular & compare it to his teammates in Ottawa. He has followed a very standard development curve & ready to put it all together.

            I watch more hockey than anyone I know. I hold season tickets to 3 teams now just dropped Vancouver after over 25 years as a season ticket holder this summer. Still have Calgary, Edmonton & Dallas. Work as a consultant in the Petro industry & travel those markets extensively. I live in airports & hotels with little to do but play fantasy hockey, read about hockey, listen to hockey & hockey talk on Sat radio, study stats & manage my leagues which are active 365. 3 of which I participate in as a GM. The other 5 I just admin & Commish. I take a fee in all 8.

            Historicly I’m right in my projections about 90% of the time. I consider right to be with in 5 points of my projection plus or minus for players over 50 points & 3 points for players under.

            I have Zibanejad at 25 goals & 65 points next season. Brassard at 22 & 55. Brassard turns 29 before the season starts. You know what happens to most NHL players as they approach their 30’s? They start dealing in points production. Not all just most. There are exceptions to every rule.

            We will see who’s right. You may be or I. Time will tell.

            Good luck.

          • Mark Legolas Stone 2016-08-27 at 16:47

            Money was a part but brassard is a much better offensive player which they want out of their second line centre. He’s a playmaker and a left handed shot which they desparately needed. I have seen zibanejad far more than you have and I know what he can do. He doesn’t have much more upside than what he has already shown and he is going to worse situation offensively as far as who his line mates and dmen will be. Zibanejad isn’t just scratching the surface, he’s not a prospect anymore.

            There’s literally no reason to project zibanejad getting 65 points and out scoring brassard. Brassard is the one who should be projected for 65 playing with Karlsson on a PP.

            I know I am right so we don’t have to wait.

          • Striker 2016-08-27 at 17:33

            Sure you are buddy good luck.

    • Pyrrhus of Epirus 2016-08-27 at 11:01

      for what its worth, the part about Calgary’s D having bad results, if your goalie cant stop a beach ball you dont win games, i dont care if you have 6 Bobby Orr’s out there. Calgary played 4 goalies lastyear, Ramo was below league average in sv% and GAA, and was the “star”. The other 3 goalies (Hillier, Ortio, Backstrum), who played started more than half of thier games (43), were jsut absolute garbage, average save percentage of well under .900 and the average GAA of the group is well above 3.0

      I will be avoiding rangers this year like the plague.

      • Striker 2016-08-27 at 11:11

        No position better reflects a teams overall defensive ability than in net. You could have put the 2nd incarnation of Jacques Plante, Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur or a goalie of today like Schneider in net in Edm over those brutal years & he would have been bad, not as bad as the lesser goalies Edm dressed but below the league average in SV %. We will know soon enough if goaltending is what truly ailed Calgary. Brian Elliot has had great #’s in his career.

        I don’t avoid any team when drafting or laying bets or project standings or playoff options. I project players in points in groups. I consider players who score 50+ points to be the same asset essentially if with in 5 points of 1 & other + or -. I could care less who they play for, I draft them when they are due to be drafted. I draft with my head not my heart. I weigh the facts, evaluate a roster, look at the line, odds what have you & decide on the wager based on facts where possible but trust my instincts.

  3. paul 2016-08-27 at 20:23

    What an interesting thread. Thanks to everyone for sharing their thoughts, I know I learned something from reading most everyone’s opinion.

    I think its fair to say that Brassard is an offense first player and as such he neglected his defensive duties, this forced AV’s hands to deploy Stepan in more of a defensive role. While DB certainly had a very productive season when taking a look at the numbers I think its fair to pencil in 20-22 goals. I have not seen enough of Zbad (maybe only a dozen or so games) to judge his creativity but I can say that NY does NOT need him to play center as they have quite a few candidates who can be effective pivots. He is also a right handed shot which is something NY does not have enough of, so it stands to reason that he can be deployed on the wing without adversely affecting team performance. If he repeats his past seasons total I think Z will feel he has had a poor season, while I highly doubt that Brass is going to pot that many plants ever again in his NHL career. Maybe he proves me wrong and after watching him play the last 3 seasons on Broadway I hope he does. Brass makes a great addition to Turris and hopefully Ottawa can make the playoffs this season. All the best to them.

    Regarding the blueline, its been my experience to note a marked discount given by many to the NY’s defenders. Can they be better ? sure I think every team can improve there. But they have a President’s trophy, a finals appearance and a lengthy offseason this year after being schooled by Steeltown. There are plenty of much poorer units out there, with less playoff experience and older players that some posit are “better” than NY. Well IMHO they are not. We will see how things turn out this upcoming season, but I reckon someone will be eating crow.

    Skjei has displayed an ability to keep the game simple, has the skating ability to jump into the play and should be a difference maker this year. He is going to get better in much the same way as Z will and that favors NY’s chances going forward. McIrath suffered an injury or two that hampered his development and delayed his appearance in the NHL, overall it worked out well enough for him as the Rangers had assembled quite a number of effective defensemen so their depth was very deep. That is not the case now so I believe he will see regular ice time.

    Thank goodness the Lightning threw more money at Callahan and Brian Boyle, I cannot fathom how their contracts would have thrown a monkey wrench into the current look of the team. So can NY improve ? sure, every team can with the possible exception of Pittsburgh, yet even they are looking to get better. Overall NY is deep, talented and quite young up front. Z fits that mold perfectly. So do Skjei and McIrath.

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