Ramblings: Drouin Recalled, Dougie Hamilton, Michel Therrien (April 8)

Michael Clifford

2016-04-08

Jonathan Drouin, Dougie Hamilton, Michel Therrien, and the East playoff push. 

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The big news from Thursday morning, naturally, was that Jonathan Drouin had been recalled by the Tampa Bay Lightning. This was in obvious response to the injuries that had piled up, and Drouin’s fairly solid goal-scoring pace in the American Hockey League this year. He did manage to score last night, by the way, and it just so happened to be the game-winner. The goal was pretty nice, too, as he forced the turnover, got the puck to a teammate, trailed behind, and snapped the drop-pass home.

It will be a very small sample to work from, but the regular season plus whatever he gets in the playoffs will certainly be interesting to watch. He won’t be playing with any of the Triplets, it appears, and that doesn’t leave a whole lot left for Drouin to play with. He was skating with Alex Killorn and Vladislav Namestnikov last night, two guys with a total of zero 20-goal seasons to their names. Drouin has not been a shooter at all in his NHL time thus far, ranking 346th out of 382 forwards since the start of last season in shots per minute at five-on-five. Without Stamkos to feed, I would like to see if Drouin shoots more or not. We may get under 10 games in this stint, which is an unreliable sample, but at the least, a deviation from his low shot rates would be a welcome sight for keeper league owners moving forward. Shots lead to goals, and both are pretty important for fantasy. Without them, Drouin will have a tough time fulfilling the fantasy potential many – myself included – saw when he was originally drafted.

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The following chart was taken from Hockey Stats, a wonderful website for easy real-time graphs of each night’s games. It shows five-on-five shot attempts, adjusted for score effects. It was downloaded shortly after Pittsburgh scored to go up 3-0 on Washington. Considering the Penguins were on the road, without Evgeni Malkin, without Olli Maatta, and facing the team that ran away with the East, this is pretty darn impressive:

The Caps eventually came back to tie the game, which is a fair reminder of why they are where they are, and forced overtime. In all, it was a pretty fun game to watch.

Yesterday’s Ramblings dealt with, in part, how the Capitals have been on cruise control for months now. These two teams seem to be on a collision course in the postseason. This is a scary, scary Penguins team when they finally get healthy.

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We have ourselves a real race in the East. With the Bruins sitting at 93 points, tied with the Red Wings, and Philadelphia at 92 but with a game in hand on each, this is going down to the final few days of the regular season.

Philadelphia looks to be a dangerous team, given their performance over the last couple of months. Detroit has the intrigue, considering their completely absurd string of playoff appearances. Boston could get on a roll if Tuukka Rask plays like Tuukka Rask of a couple of years ago. For a season where a lot has been decided for a couple weeks now, it’s nice to have this race as the season winds down.

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I’m a Habs fan (nobody’s perfect). This… this is awful.

 

 

Even when the Habs were completely healthy early in the season, their high-danger scoring chance differential at five-on-five was middling. Since then, it’s been a disaster. It took an injury to David Desharnais for Alex Galchenyuk to actually get prime minutes, as Galchenyuk averaged under 15 minutes a game through the first three months.

Saying, “well Carey Price was hurt” is a cop-out. Henrik Lundqvist missed close to 20 starts last year, and the Rangers were a game away from another Stanley Cup appearance. Dallas would have probably been better off this year going six skaters at all times, and they’re challenging for the first seed in the West. Nashville’s goaltending at five-on-five this year, as of Thursday night, was a .922; Montreal’s was .919. Nashville could be in the Cup Final. Montreal… well they showed Carolina what's what. 

Injuries eventually caught up with this team, but the season was lost before that. It is hard to argue this coach makes this team better, and that is the only job of any professional coach. 

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There is a lot of time between now and free agency, but one team I would like to see make a run at Keith Yandle is the Detroit Red Wings.

Their d-men are spent. Niklas Kronwall is barely an NHLer anymore, Mike Green is certainly not the Mike Green of five years ago, there are a couple of nice options – Brendan Smith being one – but no one that can handle big, top pairing minutes, night in and night out.

The cupboard is pretty bare for unrestricted free agent defencemen this summer. After Yandle, there will be a 37-year old Brian Campbell, a 33-year old Dan Hamhuis, and then a bunch of fill-ins. Hamhuis would be a nice option, too, but at this point, I think he’s more of a complementary option to a top defenceman, rather than a top defenceman himself.

Detroit needs blue liners, and badly. Sure, the aging Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk won’t help matters, but with guys like Tatar, Nyquist, Larkin, Mantha, and others, the forward crop should be fine. The best way to build a blue line, or a team in general, is through the draft, and they have time to do that with the younger core. If they want to stay competitive while they do that, though, that blue line needs some help immediately. Yandle would go a long way in this regard. I know there are a lot of bad contracts on that team with a few years left on them, but they need to figure this out.

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Bad news for Islanders fans, and Anders Lee as well. We'll see what comes of it, but a reporter wouldn't report this unless there was serious concern:

Lee took a step back in the goal scoring department this year, but is a nice depth piece that contributes offensively. Add another Islander name to the infirmary. 

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Over the last 19 seasons, outside of Erik Karlsson, a comprehensive list of defencemen that have posted at least 81 points in a campaign:

[SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK]

The Norris Trophy voting should be interesting.

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I suppose due to the nature of their season, it has gone by pretty quietly, but Marko Dano has looked very good in a Winnipeg Jets uniform. Acquired in the Andrew Ladd trade, as of early Thursday night, Dano had seven points in 19 games. That wouldn’t seem impressive, but in just 262 minutes of total ice time, that’s a points per 60 minutes mark of 1.60. That is about the rate of a third liner. He has also been shown great possession stats when playing Alex Burmistrov, albeit in a small sample (maybe 10 games’ worth or so).

Who knows what the future brings for Dano in fantasy, but given that he has looked stellar in his limited Winnipeg sample, it’s kind of nice to seem him doing well. If he can crack the top-six next year, and get some power play time, deep leaguers should take notice.

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With a goal and an assist last night, Dougie Hamilton surpassed his offensive output from last year with 43 points. It has been in nine more games than last year, but given that his ice time dropped by over a minute and a half from last year, the point per minute output is pretty similar.

Not sure how many people – and I put myself in that category – thought he would crack 40 points after posting just five points in his first 24 games. Here is the big thing with Hamilton: when he was on the ice with Kris Russell, Calgary was a 45-percent possession team, which is abysmal. When Hamilton played with literally anyone else on the Flames, the team averaged 52-percent possession, which is very impressive considering the Flames are 48-percent as a team

Being sheltered by Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie helps a bit, but it's hard to hide a player on a bad possession team in the Western Conference. Hamilton, by all accounts, has had an excellent season for the Flames. And the first person to bring up his plus/minus gets a poke in the eye.

*Some stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and War On Ice. Line combinations from Dobber’s Frozen Pool

15 Comments

  1. Marc-Olivier Fortier 2016-04-08 at 08:07

    1) “I’m a Habs fan (nobody’s perfect).” WTF kind of comment is that?

    2) Hypothetical situation: Caps lose Ovechkin/Pens lose Crosby/Oilers lose McDavid for 90% of the season and these teams don’t make the playoffs I guarantee you no one here would be calling for the coach to be fired. Anglo media picking on Therrien is old news and lame. They call them MVPs for a reason. Sure Therrien isn’t the best coach in the NHL but look at what he had to work with this season. Blaming the coach is a cop-out. Since joining the Leafs this season, Mike Babcock (the NHL’s “best” coach…hahahahahaha) has managed to improve their record by a whopping 1 point (finished with 68 last year, have 69 today)! Don’t see anyone calling for his head on TSN lol. Habs need at to add least 2 top 6 fwds this summer to be competitive in the playoffs. That’s it that’s all.

    3) Sorry if I’m coming off sounding like a prick…I’m originally from Ontario (nobody’s perfect)…

    • Michael Clifford 2016-04-08 at 08:33

      Anglo media? My father is from Québec and my mother is from the Acadian Peninsula in Northern New Brunswick. English is my second language.

      • Marc-Olivier Fortier 2016-04-08 at 08:37

        Then you shouldn’t be ashamed to be a Habs fan….

    • Dobber Sports 2016-04-08 at 09:18

      I agree. Coach shouldn’t be fired. Best player gone for 70 games (60 starts) and ‘other’ best player gone for 14 games should protect all coaches.
      The comment you point out in ‘1’ was an attempt at humor, relax. Your counter attempt in ‘3’ was well played.
      Anyway, all that being said – I only hear about MTL needing to fire their coach from Montreal fans. True. My Twitter feed is FULL of Habs fans insisting they fire the coach, whenever I say otherwise. So talk to your fellow Habs fans, not us – we’re innocent ;)

      • Marc-Olivier Fortier 2016-04-08 at 09:50

        Lol, sounds good. Like I said, while Therrien’s clearly not the best coach (but not one of the worst either), the main problem in Mtl is lack of scoring fwds. If Habs get a top 10 pick in the draft this summer and Bergevin picks another D (especially considering how a shallow this year’s crop of Ds is) then I will be the first to call for his head to roll. Cheers!

  2. Striker 2016-04-08 at 08:25

    Those are some pretty hard assessments this morning. Killorn is a great 3rd liner that can move into the top 6 as injuries dictate & was a huge part of TB advancing to the Stanley Cup final last year scoring 9 goals & 18 pts in 26 games. He has essentially been a 15 goal 40 point winger in his 1st 3 full seasons in the NHL. He barely makes the #2 power play in TB unless injuries warrant making it hard for almost any player to be a 20 goal scorer. Namestnikov is in his 2nd season, 1st full season, just turned 23 & is a kid. My only concern about the placement of Drouin currently is that both he & Killorn are natural LW’s so 1 is being asked to play out of position.

    I also don’t consider Goligoski to be a fill in. He is the 2nd best UFA Dman available & is a solid #2 NHL Dman. There are others to that I consider solid NHL Dman, guaranteed top 6 not just fill ins. Not studs but players capable of playing 15 to 20; 3/4/5 guys, mins a night of solid hockey. Demers, Russell, Polak, Liles, Quincey, Schenn, Benn, Miller, etc. In fact this is 1 of the best UFA D markets in over a decade.

    • Michael Clifford 2016-04-08 at 08:37

      Russell, Polak, Schenn, Benn? By most objective measures, these are bottom-pair or non-NHL d-men. I just don’t see it that way.

      • Striker 2016-04-08 at 08:51

        Well their stats beg to differ. TOI/GP, hits, blocked shots, etc say they are all easily in the 3 to 5 range depending upon which Dman on my list were talking about specifically. The fill in border line NHL Dman are players like Shlemko, Bartowski, Weber, Kostka’s etc. With 30 NHL teams normally dressing at least 6 Dman every night that’s 180 Dman needed minimum, most teams carry 8 due to injuries. There simply aren’t enough legitimate top 6 Dman for all 30 teams. Look at what teams like Arz, Buf, Car, Col, Edm, Mtl, NJ, Ott, Tor & Van are dressing in their 5 & 6 spots. Complete garbage & those players you named would make the top 4 on many of those teams in a walk.

  3. Striker 2016-04-08 at 08:33

    My Norris trophy winner is Brent Burns. He has 7 less points than Karlsson but 11 more goals, 1 more game winner, more than a 100 shots more on net than Karlsson playing 4 mins less per game as SJ doesn’t have to rely as heavily on Burns as Ottawa does Karlsson. SJ is also playoff bound & Burns 27 goals & 74 points are a huge factor in that. Where’s Ottawa going? Oh into the draft lottery.

    • Michael Clifford 2016-04-08 at 08:53

      Burns would be in my top-3 as well. But why mention how SJ being playoff bound should help Burns in his Norris quest without mentioning how the team around each player affected their personal performance and output? Being lottery-bound says a lot about the Senators, not just Karlsson.

      • Striker 2016-04-08 at 09:19

        I don’t disagree with you. Ottawa has a ton of flaws but with out digressing significantly about structure, management, coaching, depth, ownership; internal cap, etc I’m not sure that factors into Norris trophy voting specifically.

        The only reason I threw out my choice for the Norris is your comment.

        “Over the last 19 seasons, outside of Erik Karlsson, a comprehensive list of defencemen that have posted at least 81 points in a campaign:

        [SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK]

        The Norris Trophy voting should be interesting.statement.”

        It implies to me you favor Karlsson. For me it’s not solely a points race & the Dman that posts the most points wins it. For me you need to be in the top 5 in scoring both for points & goals, be your teams #1 Dman & be instrumental in your teams ability to win & make the playoffs. As you know voting is solely based on regular season contributions & votes are cast prior to the start of the playoffs. Burns contribution to SJ advancing to the playoffs is significant & to be only 7 points back of Karlsson having scored 11 more goals gets Burns my vote.

        There are a number of other solid choices, Letang, Weber, Josi, OEL & several others who don’t make the top 5 in either scoring category but log some serious defensive minutes but still put up solid points just not top 5. Doughty, Suter, Carlsson; to bad he missed so much time, Faulk; same scenario & numerous others. Klingberg, Giordano, Subban etc.

        I just don’t hear mention of Burn’s; my choice, & Letang enough. Most people just keep saying Karlsson is a lock. Playing in the west is a serous disadvantage as the majority of the votes are cast in the east. Most don’t stay up late enough to watch games consistently in the West, including your own Steve Laidlaw.

  4. Dobber 2016-04-08 at 09:23

    This year I have the honor of voting for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Byng and Selke, as well as the AS team and AR team! The Norris Trophy is definitely a tough debate.
    If you guys want to open up threads in the forum debating each award, I will read through them and they will help with my thought process and eventual decision. I want to get it right, so I’m open to all opinion

  5. Keith Murray 2016-04-08 at 11:29

    Hmmmm… the vote is for the best defenceman. Period.
    – Karlsson has certainly cleaned up his “D” duties this year
    – the sens are a totally different team when he is on the ice – much larger impact player than any other “D” (or player)
    – the Sens would be so screwed without him
    – if you had to re-do a fantasy draft of this year only for postion players under most rule guidelines Karlsson would go first
    – not to mention 4th in overall scoring

    I don’t know what else a “D” could do….. I don’t honestly see any debate.

  6. Patrick Hall 2016-04-08 at 21:04

    Way to go striker. Like a dog on a bone. Do not let Laidlaw off the hook.

    The Montreal coach is awful. There is a reason why Pittsburgh won the cup immediately after firing him. Did you see the game when subban fell down and therrien benched him and pacoretti?

    It takes a special genius to bench you’re best 2 offensive players when you are a goal down with a minute left and fighting for the playoffs

    • Dobber 2016-04-08 at 23:25

      Montreal wasn’t winning the Cup. 0% chance, even if Price and Subban were 100% healthy all year and they had Quenneville as coach and they added Stamkos as a free agent. They weren’t winning the Cup.
      Now, with that in mind, Therrien wasn’t the reason they missed the playoffs. Quenneville wouldn’t have gotten this team in. Or Babcock. Time to let it go, Habs fans. Your coach isn’t the best, but he’s not the worst. Deep breath.

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