Rambling about Eberle, Ruutu, Seguin, the Sedins, Rakell, Elias and more …
Last Fantasy Guide update was Saturday. I also updated the Draft List. Updates start coming fast and furious (daily or even multiple times per day) when camp opens and there are lots of changes.
Before I begin, I want to touch upon the Guide for a moment and clarify something. The projections need to be taken in its entirety – and that means more than just the number I provide. If I predict 56 points for Prospect X, does that mean you can count on Prospect X to get 56 points? Kind of, but not exactly. Because Prospect X, in the ‘Prospect’ chart, is listed at 65% to make the team. Prospect X is also in the sleeper chart at 65 points with 15% likelihood. So what does this all mean? Well, if Prospect X has a poor camp or is sent down for contract reasons, then he’s obviously not going to get 56 points. He’ll actually get zero. If he makes the team, then he’ll get pretty close (I’m confident) to 56 points with a small chance of reaching as many as 65. So while many magazines may hedge the projection by saying he’ll play 67 games and get 40 points – I say “nay, Bob”. He either gets zero or he gets over 50. Period. The other way is just a copout.
Now, the problem with my method is that a year from now all the calculator nerds will go over my projections (and other outlets) and ding me for being off by 56 points if he gets cut. But I think it’s the best way to do it. It’s honest, it’s realistic and it properly prepares you. You need to decide how much of that 35% risk you’re willing to take on. Hope this quick-and-dirty lesson helps!
The last two articles that I wrote have been the outlooks for the Maple Leafs and the Canucks. Both articles went on longer than most because there are so many things in play with those squads, both for the short and long term. I think the Leafs are a year ahead of where Vancouver is. I also think the Leafs are moving faster than the Canucks. I don’t think Vancouver has been making any horrible deals (though that Gudbranson – McCann one was questionable), they just haven’t been doing enough. The Leafs signed players last summer with the specific purpose of dealing them for draft picks at the deadline. They cleaned house and made sure they had the best chance at a Top 2 pick. Then they brought in a proven goalie. Vancouver just seems to be playing it safe. Slow and steady wins the race? They’re adding young players with a bit of upside – Markstrom, Baertschi, Etem, Granlund and Philip Larsen. So I guess that’s one way to go about it. But if two of those players breaks through and turns into something, then I’d consider Vancouver lucky. I think Markstrom will be fine – so we need one more. And I don’t mean Baertschi turning into a 45-point guy for example. No, I actually mean a legit scoring forward up over 60 points. Anyway, I’m not saying the Vancouver rebuild will fail while Toronto’s will succeed, I’m saying it will take a couple of extra years for Vancouver to find out. Whereas if Toronto’s starts failing, it will be caught sooner and they can react. Just a thought that occurred to me as I got started here.
Not only does the World Cup of Hockey begin this week, but don’t forget that teams have their rookie camps open as well. Keep it locked on DobberProspects as the Ramblings (still four times per week) recap the latest. The scroller at the top has a link that will take you to the latest DobberProspects Ramblings automatically.
Speaking of the WCoH, Tyler Seguin is now out of the tournament with a knee injury. Ryan O’Reilly is his injury replacement which is a huge drop in skill, though I have to say that the skill set that O’Reilly brings is something that Team Canada is missing so perhaps this change is for the better. What worries me more is the injury itself and the name of the player who sustained it. Since joining Dallas Seguin has had a concussion, a sprained right knee, a severed Achilles and then complications stemming from returning from said Achilles injury too soon (hamstring or groin, I believe?). And now this. And I’m not talking about five or six years here, I’m talking about 33 months. Can we start chiseling it in stone that he misses 10 or 12 games every year?
Patrik Berglund replaces Rickard Rakell for Team Sweden, who is (or was) still in hospital with a stomach virus. A stomach virus doesn’t raise any alarms for me, but if he’s still not eating two weeks from now then that’s a lot of weight and conditioning to make up. At that point I’d have to tweak Rakell’s outlook for the season downward due to the slow start. But for now I stand pat.
Las Vegas Desert Knights. How does that sound? As soon as the rumors hit I jumped on Go Daddy and tried to register variations of the name in a domain – but they were all taken. The three names trademarked by the Vegas team are the Desert Knights, Silver Knights and Golden Knights.
Here is an update on Montreal prospect Martin Reway. It’s in Czech so you need Google to translate it. But from what I gather, his pneumonia may have been mistreated earlier on and it’s causing heart problems now. There is a slight risk of his career being in jeopardy.
The Oilers’ blog Copper ‘n Blue takes a stab at forecasting Jordan Eberle in 2016-17. They figure that Eberle will line up with Connor McDavid and suggest that it could lead to Eberle shooting the puck a hell of a lot more than usual. That could boost him back up over 30 goals. The poll at the bottom has 93% of voting Edmonton fans (I assume) believing he will get at least 60 points, with 36% seeing 70-plus.
I have him for 64 points in the Guide (26 goals) but I can easily see 70 with any chemistry at all on the McDavid line.
Cap Friendly reported on Twitter that six teams will have a cap overage penalty for this season:
So these great goalie equipment changes that are coming down the pipe may be delayed, but the tighter pants size restrictions are apparently going to be ready for the start of the season. The article cites Jacob Markstrom as one of the bigger pants-wearers in the league, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts. Will skill and maneuverability compensate for loss of net coverage?
PS – that quote at the end by Ben Bishop….
“They keep trying to make changes,” said Bishop. “Maybe the goalies are too good, I guess.”
Uh, the ‘changes’ that are being put forth is an attempt to get the equipment back to the size that it was in the 80s. Yes, there were no restrictions then, but back then goalies just wore the proper fitting equipment without being told.
Goalies are apparently bogging down the process of getting these changes rolling. Slowing things to a crawl. And they want “comprehensive safety testing” first. To me, that should be easy. Take the equipment, put it over something breakable, then take a gun and shoot it. If it stops the bullet – as it should – then it passes the test. Come on, goalies, enough is enough. We’re talking about Kevlar for goodness sake.
For those interested in owning Tyler Johnson, which should be most of you, here is a great article on his being “stronger than ever”. He said that he played the first portion of last season with no strength or flexibility in his right wrist. He couldn’t even do a push-up until January! Do not underrate Johnson.
The Vancouver Canucks have given Tuomo Ruutu a tryout. His making the team would be at the expense of European star Anton Rodin, in all likelihood. Or possibly a prospect like Markus Granlund – but Ruutu hasn’t played center in years. Given that Ruutu managed just one point in 33 games last year to go with an abundance of healthy scratches, methinks that making the team is quite the long shot.
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