Ramblings: Home/Away splits; pre/post Sullivan; McDavid returns (Feb 03)

by Ryan Ma on February 3, 2016
  • Hockey Rambling
  • Ramblings: Home/Away splits; pre/post Sullivan; McDavid returns (Feb 03)

Ramblings – (Maasquito bytes?) – Home/Away splits, Sullivan's impact, McJesus returns; Ryan Ma digs into the numbers…

 

(Dobber's note – former DobberHockey writer Ryan Ma, a reader favorite, returns for a one-off take on the fantasy hockey world)

 

G’Day Dobberites!

It has certainly been a while since I contributed, (well anything), to the DobberHockey community as “real life” has caught up with me. To be fair, I really have only visited DH a handful of times this fantasy season and the one odd day that I happen to check in, Dobber’s ramblings mentioned an old fan favourite returning for a rambling day. I didn’t really think much of it at first, but then I coincidently stumbled on the forum post started by Dobber regarding guesses as to who is returning. Of course the first answer was Angus, which was a given, but then reading further I was a bit surprised to see my name mentioned by Horrorfan and then seconded a few times. It’s always a privilege to know that I did, somewhat, impact the fantasy hockey community somewhere down the line. So I reached out to Dobber to see if he’d have some space for me to pop back on and do a ramblings for nostalgia purposes and here I am.

I’ll premise these ramblings by saying that I have not watched much in the way of hockey this season I’m actually not participating a single pool this season, so what you’ll read today is purely going to be coming from a data/statistical analysis plus a few of my humble opinions/ prognostications as based from my learnings of playing fantasy hockey over the last 15 years.

I haven’t been completely out of it, as I have been following the RHRS league where some of the DH big kahunas have been duking it out for fantasy supremacy over the last couple of seasons. Always great to read the banter and watching the “experts” pulling off their strategies. Temek is my call to win it all, but the standings look fairly tight between the top four, and it should be in for an exciting finish once again. Of course they all would be trembling at my feet if I were participating…  

Onto the good stuff!

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For those of you who have followed DH for the last decade, you’ll be pretty much familiar with my 13 laws of fantasy hockey success. (Ma’s Laws, for a lack of a better title). Basically, there are some key trends that I have uncovered to help give you that little extra two percent advantage above your competition, hopefully garnering you a fantasy title come April. I’ll briefly cover a few to see what interesting stats I have uncovered.

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Be wary of the offensive bubble happening in the NHL and its overall effects

Season

Goals Scored

2015-16

2.63

2014-15

2.73

2013-14

2.74

2012-13

2.72

2011-12

2.73

Stats taken from: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

We thought we’d seen a levelling of scoring over the last four years, but it seems to have hit a new low this year, plummeting even further than one would imagine.

Fantasy Impact: 2.63 goals scored/team per game over the season of 1230 games played would pro-rate to a season-ending total of 6470 goals scored this season, the four-year average of 2.73 goals scored/team per game over the season of 1230 games would pro-rate to 6716 goals. So we’re talking about a difference of 246 goals and a possible 738 fewer points to be shared amongst the player pool come April. Suddenly, a 45-point producer might have more of an impact in fantasy leagues this season compared to the past.

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Ice-time plays a vital role in point production

It’s as the old adage goes, you can’t score if you’re not on the ice. Pretty simple! From my previous research, there is a correlation co-efficient of 0.81 (pretty significant) between time on ice (TOI) and forward point production. This is where Frozen Pool is such a valuable tool in trying to get a leg up on your competition. Under the report generator, you could easily filter TOI results by the last two weeks and look for players who have seen an uptick in playing time. In theory, if the situation remains status quo, these players should see a boost in offensive production in the second half. Justin Abdelkader, Mikkel Boedker, Cam Atkinson, Adam Henrique, Aleksander Barkov, Carl Soderberg, Bo Horvat and Alex Wennberg are a few of the players who have seen an uptick in ice-time just prior to the ASB.

If you’re in a tight race and looking for the extra little two percenters, I would be fully utilizing Frozen Pool to see who’s getting that sneaky boost in ice-time.

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Shots on goal also play a vital role in point production

 

    

 

I’ve tracked all of the forwards who have recorded at least a single point since the 2011-12 season and graphed it alongside SOG data. From the 2045 players, it can be concluded that there is a large correlation between SOG and point production to the extent that an 80 percent accuracy rate could be used to predict points scored based from SOG totals.

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Power play time also impacts point production in a significant way, more specifically percentage of team power play opportunities

Currently teams score on 18.8 percent of their power-play opportunities and if you look at the current stats, in the top 50 point producers, only Taylor Hall has registered less than 20 percent of his points on the power play.

When looking for trade targets, look for players who are getting a bigger boost in responsibility over the last couple of weeks, Boedker, Jack Eichel, Anders Lee, TJ Oshie, Ryan Johansen, Ryan Spooner, Patrice Bergeron, Joe Pavelski, Johnny Gaudreau and Joe Thornton are your notable players.

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Pay attention to splits

As Steve Laidlaw has alluded to throughout the year, planning and accounting for splits can be the difference between winning and losing come April.

Home/Away

Goals For

Home

2.71

Away

2.48

It’s a notable difference between teams playing at home versus playing on the road. On average, teams at home produce 8.4 percent more offensively on favourable territory compared to when in enemy territory. The players on the Caps and Preds could be very interesting commodities in the second half, as they still have 18 home games to play, and given that they produce at a rate of 3.43 and 2.96 goals per game at home respectively compared to 3.21 and 2.22 on the road. A smart poolie would probably be using every little tidbit to their advantage.

DFS players should definitely make note of this stat.

 

Favourable Home/Away Splits in the Second Half

Team

Home Remaining

Home GF/game

Home PP%

Away Remaining

Away GF/game

Toronto

19

2.64

20.0

15

2.00

Washington

18

3.43

30.0

17

3.21

Nashville

18

2.96

19.7

14

2.22

Winnipeg

17

2.88

17.1

16

2.32

 

Unfavourable Home/Away Splits in the Second Half

Team

Home Remaining

Home GF/game

Away Remaining

Away GF/game

Away PP%

Islanders

15

2.92

20

2.43

17.5

Anaheim

15

2.42

20

1.71

16.7

Calgary

17

2.96

17

2.25

12.8

Pittsburgh

16

2.76

18

2.22

17.9

Minnesota

16

2.68

17

2.25

11.3

 

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If you’re playing in head-to-head leagues, playoff scheduling plays a huge factor to championship success. To a certain extent, same could also be said for rotisserie leagues if you’re trying to defend a lead or chase down the frontrunner.

 

Unfavourable Schedules

Schedule

Anaheim

7 of last 11 on the road

Arizona

5 of last 6 on the road

Buffalo

7 of last 11 on the road

Calgary

8 of last 11 on the road

Columbus

6 of last 8 on the road

Pittsburgh

6 of last 9 on the road

 

Favourable Schedules

Schedule

Edmonton

8 of last 12 at home

Minnesota

6 of last 9 at home

Nashville

7 of last 10 at home

Rangers

7 of last 10 at home

San Jose***

12 of last 16 at home

 

Anaheim is a bit of a tough team to gauge, but if you are playing the odds, a Corey Perry for Jordan Eberle or Logan Couture swap might prove to be beneficial.  Same could probably be said for Ryan Getzlaf or Gaudreau for Johansen deal.

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Goalie splits have been very interesting so far this year. This is one aspect that I would be seriously analysing for DFS and rotisserie players. Looking for edges like these could absolutely separate you from your competition.

Home studs:

Corey Crawford

Record

GAA

SP

Home

18-5-1

1.59

0.947

Away

10-7-1

2.93

0.909

 

Craig Anderson

Record

GAA

SP

Home

11-5-3

2.22

0.929

Away

9-10-1

3.41

0.902

 

Cam Ward

Record

GAA

SP

Home

9-4-4

2.28

0.909

Away

5-7-1

2.59

0.899

 

Road Warriors:

Cory Schneider

Record

GAA

SP

Home

9-8-3

2.23

0.916

Away

13-7-2

1.85

0.939

 

Tuukka Rask

Record

GAA

SP

Home

8-11-1

2.98

0.896

Away

9-4-3

1.89

0.939

 

Semyon Varlamov

Record

GAA

SP

Home

11-7-3

2.99

0.902

Away

8-5-0

1.93

0.942

 

Of course I’m cherry picking my stats, but if you streamed a combo of Ward and Varlamov, to their respective strengths, you would have had a combined stat-line of 17-9-4, 2.13 GAA and .925 SP which is the equivalent of the stat-lines currently posted by Marc-Andre Fleury or Devan Dubnyk. Some food for thought.

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Now’s a good time to grab a coffee, have breakfast/lunch and then come back for part deux. Being short and to the point has never been my strength.

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Anyway onto last night’s contests. I’ll re-iterate that I haven’t watched a single game this season and I don’t plan to, so I’m going primarily on box scores. I apologize in advance if it isn’t to the quality standard that you are used to reading from Steve, Dobber or Ian.

Sidney Crosby recorded his ninth career hatty. Look at his stat-line pre and post Mike Sullivan at the helm.

 

Points/Game

SOG/Game

% of team PP

Pre

0.68

2.8

68.2

Post

1.30

3.5

69.7

 

 

Another big beneficiary, Patric Hornqvist

 

Points/Game

SOG/Game

% of team PP

Pre

0.36

2.5

51.8

Post

0.81

4.1

63.2

 

Night and day…

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Joffrey Lupul’s fantasy value is done! 0.17 points-per-game production with a 21.5 percent share of the Leafs’ PP pie during the last month. He garnered just 12:07 last night; yep, he’s done.

Leo Komarov, however, has plenty of hope. 0.5 points-per-game along with a 45.3 percent share of the PP on top of a ridiculous amount of hits. 42 percent Yahoo! owned at the moment, which could see that number rise especially if he’s given a bit more a green light moving forward (19:03 TOI last night).

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Calling Wild offense, 14 goals in the last nine contests… Isn’t this the team that rosters Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Suter and Charlie Coyle?

Speaking of missing offense… 48 goals for the Habs since the start of December, 1.92 goals per game, which was a steep decline from the 3.52 that they averaged prior to the demise. Where’s John Scott’s hot stick when you need it?

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Finally some relief for owners who stuck by Jakub Voracek. Since Nov. 14, he has posted 34 points, 15 of which were on the PP, along with 85 SOG in 32 contests. 30, 11 and 94 for Claude Giroux.

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The Panthers are looking more and more legit with every passing game. Tops in the league in terms of goals allowed with a stingy 2.18 goals against average and that’s after shutting down the league’s top offense last night, (granted they were without Alex Ovechkin).

Bodog has them at 16/1 at the moment; not bad dark horse option come April.

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10 shots on goal for Andre Burakovsky last night in Ovy’s absence. The Caps are just too deep for him to be impactful in any meaningful way. His 18.3 percent share of the PP pie will be the leash that tethers him.

For the two percent of Yahoo! players who still are hanging onto the hope of a Mike Richards resurgence, time to cut bait. 12:32 TOI toiling on the third line = goodbye fantasy value.

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Last campaign, 11 percent of Brian Elliott’s starts were shutouts. He finally picked up number one of the 2015-16 season as he blanked the Preds 1-0. With Jake Allen still on the shelf for an unknown period, this could be just enough of an opening that Elliott needs to claim the number one gig outright and never look back.

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The nightmare is over for Tyler Seguin, as he posted a mere three points in 11 January contests. The calendar flipped over and his luck changed as he picked up two goals in his first February contest. I can hear the Seguin owners rejoicing all the way here in Australia.

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During the ASB, Dustin Byfuglien certainly didn’t do much to reaffirm to Jets fans that he is keen to re-up in Winnipeg, so of course now is the best time to start speculating about where he is destined to land. Buffy in E-town would be a great fit… one can only dream! Dobberites plead your cases!

With Joel Armia, Nikolaj Ehlers, Brendan Lemieux and Nicolas Petan all waiting in the pipeline, the Jets aren’t in a desperate need of prospects. They also have Josh Morrissey, (top prospect with 11 points in 43 contests, 41 PIM with the Moose) who is a year from being NHL-ready based on his production in the minors, and Jake Trouba is ready to shoulder more of the load – so re-signing Buffy isn’t necessarily a priority.

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With Jonathan Toews suspended for missing the ASG, Richard Panik filled his shoes. With the Hawks’ captain back next contest, Panik’s fantasy value holds as much water as MT319’s talent analysis of Patrik Berglund’s skating ability, (sorry had to slip that one in there somewhere).

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Keep a close eye on Carl Soderberg, (only 40% Yahoo! owned at the moment), seven points along with 20 SOG along with a 48.7 percent share of the Avs’ PP time all while averaging 18:49 per contest during the last three weeks. Hidden fantasy value!

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Dustin Brown joined Anze Kopitar and Milan Lucic on the Kings’ top line last night and the result was two twine-ticklers. Despite a couple of down seasons, I’ve still have a soft spot for him from a fantasy perspective. He’s still very much a volume shooter (tied for 35th among all forwards in SOG/game), but if he can somehow maintain this prime position instead of alongside scrubs Trevor Lewis and Dwight King, maybe, just maybe he has some fantasy value in the second stanza. The three seconds of PP that he received is a major worry.

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David Perron is enjoying a new lease on life in Anaheim with five points in five games since joining the Ducks. He’s spent 74.1 percent of his overall TOI alongside Ryan Getzlaf, which is a good sign for predicting future success. No points last night, but at 22 percent Yahoo! owned he’s a great bargain bin option moving forward.

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McJesus is back! Look at this beauty from Connor McDavid…

 

 

Oilers line combos in last night’s 5-1 victory over the Jackets.

Draisaitl – Hall – Purcell

Eberle – McDavid – Pouliot

Hendricks – Korpikoski – Pakarinen

Kassian – Letestu – Yakupov

Poor Yak… 10:13 and no sniff with McDavid.

The Oilers have a very favourable schedule down the stretch, if they can somehow manage to play 500 hockey from now till mid-March, they could have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. (Sorry have my Oilers’ rose coloured glasses on at the moment!)

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Here’s a couple of Maaaasquito Bites for old times’ sake

Dustin Brown is a career 9.4 percent shooter, granted the last couple of years, (7.7 and 5.8 percent shooting efficiency), hasn’t exactly been on the trajectory to Mars, but his current 3.7 is a bit ridiculous given that he’s spending 37 percent of his shifts alongside Anze Kopitar. Brown’s on-ice team shooting percentage is also at a lowly 3.66 percent, which should see a boost moving forward.

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Ryan Kesler is also another player in the same boat, his on-ice team shooting percentage is operating at 5.29 percent thanks to Jakub Silfverberg’s 6.9 percent shooting efficiency. The addition of David Perron should shuffle the deck chairs a bit to yield a boost in that area in the second stanza.

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On the flip side, Patrick Kane has a ludicrous on-ice team shooting percentage of 11.84 percent, which puts him on a 113 point pace. Given that his career-high is only 88 points, I would very much be tempted go with the under on the line of 100 points by season’s end. Another key stat to indicate a production drop off is that he’s been on the ice for 54 percent of the Hawks’ goals, which is significantly higher than anything that any other player has displayed during the last five seasons. I expect teams to start keying in Kane’s line and perhaps freeing up the other lines defensively. Marian Hossa is certainly one that I would keep a sharp eye on as his numbers seem to indicate a normalization to occur fairly soon.

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As always questions or comments discuss below