Ramblings: Player Over/Under Point Totals (October 8, 2016)

by steve laidlaw on October 8, 2016
  • Hockey Rambling
  • Ramblings: Player Over/Under Point Totals (October 8, 2016)

Reviewing some of the best over/under prop bets on the market and some Fantasy Hockey Q+A.

Bodog finally released its player point total over/unders. That leaves us with less than a week to get in our bets. Oh well, better late than never. You can review the full list here. I’ve also gone ahead and tweeted all 104 of these prop bets as a Twitter poll, vote on those on my timeline.

I mentioned a month ago that I wanted to try doing some “swarm intelligence” stuff using the UNU product. Basically, you get a bunch of people into a chat room and then ask a question and it allows everyone to offer their answer by pulling on a widget. Basically it works like a ouija board. We had about 10 readers and writers pop in to answer a few of these.

Ultimately, the process was fairly time consuming for what mostly ended up being a poll. Someone even asked the difference between the swarm method and a regular poll. You probably get better answers out of the swarm method but you can get a much larger sample out of a Twitter poll. I still prefer the swarm answer but it would be asking a lot to get 20 or so experts to commit to 3-4 hours of tugging on a widget, especially around Canadian Thanksgiving.

Anyways here are our results with the number value indicating the percentage of confidence we had in each winning outcome:

 

Point Total

Over

Under

Corey Perry

65.5

 

68

Ryan Getzlaf

68.5

 

52

Ryan Kesler

51.5

 

76

Dylan Stome

45.5

 

77

Max Domi

57.5

55

 

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

50.5

84

 

Brad Marchand

52.5

74

 

David Krejci

56.5

 

69

Patrice Bergeron

61.5

66

 

Jack Eichel

63.5

56

 

Kyle Okposo

58.5

 

58

Ryan O'Reilly

58.5

51

 

Johnny Gaudreau

76.5

 

56

Mark Giordano

50.5

 

64

Sam Bennett

46.5

54

 

Jeff Skinner

49.5

50

 

 

Some interesting results there.

I have already put bets in on 17 different over/under props. Here are the ones that I like:

OVER

Tyler Johnson

49.5

Mark Scheifele

60.5

Patrik Laine

40.5

Brandon Saad

52.5

Brad Marchand

52.5

Rick Nash

46.5

Brock Nelson

38.5

Kyle Turris

49.5

Brendan Gallagher

46.5

Alex Galchenyuk

53.5

 

UNDER

Corey Perry

65.5

Eric Staal

49.5

Jaromir Jagr

54.5

Henrik Zetterberg

53.5

Sidney Crosby

93.5

Bryan Little

53.5

Joe Thornton

74.5

 

You’ll notice a distinct age divide between these two groups. Nash might be the only 30-year-old in the OVER group and Jagr is the only non-30-year-old in the UNDER group. Actually, Crosby is 29 but you get the idea. This fits the idea that players peak earlier but I can’t help but feel it also fits the bias of being overly optimistic.

I really wonder what the outcome would be if I simply bet UNDER on every single one of these. This season will offer a good test. And for the first time, I will actually be tracking all of these over/unders. It will make for some fun review come season’s end. And hopefully also some decent profits. I need to hit on 58 per cent of these to make a profit, though it’s probably more since I am also tying my money up for six months in these bets. I only gamble for fun anyhow. In five years of online betting my bankroll has gone exactly nowhere. I consider that a success.

Dobber will have his over/under bets come Monday, though I am certain you can figure out what they’ll be if you have the Draft Guide. Dobber puts his money where his mouth is when it comes to these bets.

I’ll be rolling out a list of all the poll outcomes when I do the Tuesday ramblings. Watch out for that!

One over/under I didn’t hit up is Johnny Gaudreau at 76.5. That’s because I instead bet him at 33/1 to win the Art Ross. There are plenty of reasons to not toss money on that not the least of which being the contract dispute Gaudreau is currently in. There’s also some lunacy to throwing any money on anyone not named Connor McDavid in a world where Connor McDavid exists. That said, Gaudreau still has a few days to sign and he competed in the World Cup so he won’t be coming in rusty. Ultimately, I just believe that getting last year’s sixth ranked scorer at 33/1 odds to top the charts is good value.

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The Flyers announced that Michael Del Zotto will miss 4-5 weeks due to injury. This solidifies what was already incredibly likely: Ivan Provorov will make the team out of training camp.

We’d all be going gaga over Provorov if not for the presence of the dynamite Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere is too damn gifted offensively to give up his role on the top power play unit. The lack of top PP minutes really hinders Provorov’s upside. Think about the numbers that Alex Pietrangelo might put up if not for Kevin Shattenkirk. Provorov can still be fantasy relevant but the upside is limited with Gostisbehere in the way.

Del Zotto’s absence gives Provorov a good shot at PP time on the second unit with Mark Streit and if he does well, there’s a good chance that Del Zotto is written out of the PP plans going forward. I don’t expect Provorov to be fantasy relevant this season but he has to get his foot in the door first so this is a big step.

The scary part if, like me, you have invested in Flyers goaltending is that this also opens up the possibility of Andrew MacDonald opening as a lineup regular.

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Another rookie defenseman who will start the year in the NHL is Mikhail Sergachev, who will get at least nine games with the Montreal Canadiens. I am not counting on Sergachev getting more than a nine-game run.

Artturi Lehkonen will open the season with the Canadiens as well. He has shown well in the pre-season and looks to have a spot in the top six locked up for now.

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A few big cuts from around the league:

Jake Guentzel – Pittsburgh

Ivan Barbashev – St. Louis

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Now for our weekly Q+A session!

They waived Clayton Stoner the other day so that’s one move.

I want to say that Jacob Larsson is a placeholder until Hampus Lindholm signs but he may have played his way onto this team. Could be that his emergence has as much to do with the Cam Fowler trade rumours as does the need to find cap room for Lindholm and Rickard Rakell.

I’m also wondering if politics are at play with Larsson here because the word was he’d return to Sweden if he didn’t make the NHL club. Perhaps they are keeping him here since they know they won’t get him back from Sweden whereas they can recall Shea Theodore or Brandon Montour at any time. That’s pure speculation though. I haven’t been watching these guys.

I like Robby Fabbri and Anthony Duclair but all five have a shot at having fantasy value this season. I don’t expect any to get more than 50 points but these two strike me as having the best opportunity to do so. Alexander Wennberg would be third on my list.

Low 200’s. McDavid shot at a 208-shot pace once he returned from injury, which is right about the ballpark I’d put for him.

Konecy is a good bet to break camp with the Flyers but he’s probably a third liner when the Flyers have their full lineup. I can’t see him cracking the top line as the Flyers have three good options to skate alongside Claude Giroux and only two wing spots to fill. Safe to say Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds will have priority here. It’s also tough to see Konecny sniffing the top power play unit with those four in tow.

There might be a spot on the second line alongside Sean Couturier available but we should assume one of those aforementioned three will be on that line and Michael Raffl stands to get into the mix on that line as well. He was paired up with Couturier a great deal to close last season and they were productive together.

Schenn will serve a three-game suspension carrying over from the playoffs last season so Konecny probably gets top-six minutes in the first week but after that I suspect he skates on the third line.

Of course, talent will always shine through. Coaches also can make weird decisions. Voracek was on the fourth line for good stretches of last season. So that doesn’t mean Konecny can’t have value.

In their past pre-season game, which featured the forward lineup we’d expect from Philadelphia, Konecny opened on the third line. He skated with Dale Weise and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. He also scored a couple of points.

Everyone wants a numerical point projection with this stuff. I don’t think we have enough data to provide a good one but based on the role I am projecting; he probably won’t get to 40 points.

It has already been confirmed that Tkachuk will open the season with Calgary. He’ll get at least nine games.

Dvorak is a good bet to make the Coyotes. He’s the guy I like most of the four listed to stick for the full season and to make a meaningful impact.

Milano has been sent down. It will take a couple of injuries to get him up this season.

I suspect Barzal will be back in junior this season.

It depends on where the line for “fantasy relevance” is. If it’s 40 points for a forward, 25 points for a defenseman or 15 wins for a goalie then there are a lot of candidates. If you have higher standards then players with more volatile outcomes become more intriguing. There are several goalies who will start in the minors who would jump to the front of the pack since they are an injury away from relevance but could easily not even play a game.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Sebastian Aho

Matt Murray

Puloch is NHL ready, and unless you think the recently signed Dennis Seidenberg is a threat, he will be a lineup regular to open the season. He might even be able to jump into some offensive minutes ahead of Johnny Boychuk or Travis Hamonic who both have limitations.

The Islanders, with John Tavares as the fulcrum, would be best served with a right shot defenseman playing the point on the power play. However, right now it’s Nick Leddy, a lefty, who has that spot locked up. Puloch has the skills to fill this role but he probably needs an injury to Leddy to receive an opportunity.

Matheson should make the Panthers but he’s behind some established names before he’ll get a shot at even second unit PP time. Not really looking at him for fantasy value this season.

I don’t really target one specific scoring category so this question strikes me as odd. Also, the term “late round” is meaningless without context.

More importantly, targeting specific players in specific rounds throws off the notion of having malleability at the draft table. If someone awesome like Evgeni Malkin falls into the late rounds, TAKE HIM! Make a list before you draft and make it long enough so you don’t run out of players. That way, you aren’t stuck “targeting” players. You are just making value picks.

Lower upside guys who skated on PP1 for their teams like Mathieu Perreault or Ryan Spooner are guys I have scooped off the waiver wire at times when I was looking for some scoring punch. Perhaps they fit the bill here.

I would also recommend you check out my latest piece touching on some of the most intriguing power play opportunities available around the league.

It starts with a beer and ends with a handshake.

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Thanks for reading. Give me a follow and a shout on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.