Ramblings: Sami Vatanen, Elias Lindholm, Mikko Koivu, Adrian Kempe and more (Aug. 9)

Neil Parker

2016-08-09

Sami Vatanen - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Taking another look at the fantasy value of Sami Vatanen, Elias Lindholm, Shea Weber, Mikko Koivu, and many more …

 

Easily, the best part of these ramblings is the freedom to go where stats and news take you. We're lucky not to be pinned into a word count and a specific subject. 

With that said, here are some player notes to chew on.

 

Sami Vatanen

Among defenders with 200 power-play minutes last year, Vatanen posted the seventh-best 5.61 points per 60 minutes. Yet he had a 50th-best 0.79 P/60 at five-on-five among rearguards with 1000 minutes. This follows up his 5.04 and 1.05 marks during the 2014-15 campaign.

All said, we have no doubt about Vatanen's ability with the man advantage, and entering his fourth season, it won't take much of a jump in even-strength production to climb into the 45-point range. He's best viewed as No. 3 defenseman because of his modest contributions in the peripheral statistics. Still, this is a high-floor point producer with upside.

 

Shea Weber

Look for some negative regression from Weber after posting a 15.8 shooting percentage on the power play last season. He had a 13.5 mark over three years from 2012-15. Additionally, Weber took fewer shots per game with the man advantage than the previous three-season span (0.71 vs. 0.79).

There's an unknown in Montreal with just how he'll fit in with their power-play attack, but it's worth highlighting Weber's 2014-15 season where he scored just 15 power-play points. Counting on 20 goals and 50 points from Weber is likely too lofty an expectation.

 

Mikko Koivu

The veteran logged 268:08 power-play minutes last season, which ranked 12th in the league. Koivu returned 20 PP points, which accounted for 35.7 percent of his points last year. It was also his highest PP point total since the 2010-11 season.

With a new bench boss, Koivu could not only see fewer minutes, he might not be as efficient with the opportunities he receives. Plus, entering his age-33 season, expectations should already be in check. At this point, he's a filler in the endgame and not a target, especially with a number of unknowns surrounding the Wild.

 

Elias Lindholm

Among forwards with 200 power-play minutes last season, Lindholm ranked seventh with 2.57 first assists per 60 minutes — impressive. But he also ranked 72nd out of 84 forwards in shots per 60 minutes with just 7.42. Add his measly 11 goals in 2015-16, and there isn't a lot to love, especially in Carolina.

While there are plenty of encouraging youngsters piling up in Raleigh, Lindholm's skillset appears to be best suited for points-only settings. He'll improve on his 6.3 shooting percentage from last year, no doubt, but 50 points seems like a tough benchmark to surpass for a pass-first forward on a losing club. Count on another 40 tallies and view anything over 45 as a huge bonus.

 

***

 

Adrian Kempe is likely an injury away from a permanent gig with the Kings. He has a lackluster group blocking him (Tanner Pearson, Dwight King, Kyle Clifford, etc. etc.) and likely very little to prove in the American Hockey League.

Los Angeles has shown a willingness to graduate some of their players quickly when ready — Tyler Toffoli may be the exception. However, with the supporting cast falling to pieces around their elite core (Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter and Jonathan Quick), players capable of contributing now are needed.

Kempe could even push the envolople in training camp. For our fantasy purposes, he's likely not worth selecting in the majority of settings, but he very easily could have an impact for stretches or down the fantasy stretch.

Also, those in keeper/dynasty leagues might want to target a guy like Kempe who has a clearer path to a full-time gig over a player who may be a touch more talented but have a more crowded road. Talent usually wins out, but talent and opportunity is what we're after.

 

Similarly, Artturi Lehkonen is a player to watch in Montreal. He's expected to either crack the roster or return to Sweden, but after a monster playoff showing this spring (19 points in 16 games), the 21-year-old winger is close.

With the Habs lack of high-end talent blocking Lehkonen, he could easily make the case for sticking. His coach compared Lehkonen's situations to that of Mattias Janmark last year and noted Lahkonen is physically ready for the NHL. You can read more here.

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Again, like Kempe, you might be passing up on some upside by targeting Lehkonen in cavernous leagues or keeper/dynasty settings, but you're also grabbing a player close. Some guys with more talent never make it because they're stuck behind others on a deep roster.

 

Before moving on, Zach Werenski shouldn't have much trouble catching on and sticking with the Blue Jackets. He's not going to breakout in his freshman campaign and return numbers like he did during the AHL playoffs (14 points through 17 games), but he should see sheltered minutes and provide decent fantasy results in deep leagues.

He's a well-rounded defenseman on the fast track to being a 15-year pro and mid-tier fantasy asset annually. Werenski only has Dalton Prout and Cody Goloubef to compete with to be the fifth defenseman behind Seth Jones, Jack Johnson, David Savard and Ryan Murray.

 

***

 

I didn't get to a few questions from comments of past ramblings.

One was about offenses improving and jumping up the rankings and being higher-scoring clubs. Here are a few candidates for improvement.

Winnipeg: Last year, the Jets posted the 15th-best shooting percentage (7.6%) at five-on-five despite sporting the fourth-highest scoring chances per 60 minutes. Add a full season of prime Mark Schiefele to an emerging Nikolaj Ehlers and the addition of Patrik Laine, and there is a lot to like about the Jets scoring more in 2016-17.

Edmonton: With a 19th-ranked shooting percentage (7.2%) at five-on-five and 18th-ranked Sh% (12.2%) on the power play, there is room for improvement. Losing Taylor Hall will hurt some, but a full season of Connor McDavid in front of an improved group across the board will aid the Oilers in flirting with being a top-10 club offensively.

 

***

 

Another question was specifically about Philadelphia. The Flyers had the best five-on-five save percentage in the league last season (.935) and did nothing to improve their inadequate blue line. Relying on elite goaltending from middling talents will sink a team over the course of a season.

Offensively, a full season of Sean Couturier should enable Philly to roll out two offensively capable lines and boast some scoring depth. Unless they return to being a dominate force on the power play, though, the Flyers are going to remain a fringe playoff team.

Perhaps, Scott Laughton and/or Travis Konecny can help light a spark and provide more offensive punch, but that blue line is a going concern. Expect Ivan Provorov to also have plenty of growing pains in Year 1.

 

***

 

Back to the Jack Eichel vs. Auston Matthews discussion, in 2016-17, it is very difficult to envision Matthews outscoring Eichel. A fair prop bet would be Matthews +8.5. Eichel is set for a sneaky run at a top-10 finish in points with 30-plus goals.

 

***

 

Here's a fun read about the hockey hotbeds around the globe. There is no doubt, the United States National Team Development Program is producing high-end talent as quickly as any of late.

 

Catch you next week, and thanks for checking in, Dobberheads.

 

 

14 Comments

  1. Striker 2016-08-09 at 07:27

    I like Pearson. Way to early to throw into the lackluster group. He went from 4th line TOI/GP minutes in his rookie year to 3rd line minutes last season, his 1st full season in the NHL. Oddly enough his role on the PP declined in year 2 & this is a concern. At only 23 years of age; 24 when the season starts, & with only 146 games of NHL regular season experience Pearson’s breakthrough should start happening late this season; After Jan 1st, moving into the 2017-18 season. He has had cups of coffee as a scoring LW but not consistently yet.

    The issue is opportunity. Lucic & Lacavilier leaving opens up some better quality PP time & the coveted #1 LW spot but the addition of Purcell clouds that opportunity. Tiffoli & Purcell have been RW’s primarily as has Gaborik but any could slide to LW & Brown can also play either side but has played primarily LW since Gaborik arrived but his scoring days appear over.

    I have struggled to put a line up together for several teams, LA being 1. Unless Pearson can step up, Gaborik reacquires his former abilities & Purcell contribute in some way LA looks to be getting progressively worse due to cap constraints & questionable contracts; Brown.

    Pearson, Kopitar, Gaborik.
    Tiffoli, Carter, Purcell.
    Brown, Shore, Lewis.
    Clifford, Andreoff, King.
    Spare. Nolan/Dowd

    Shuffle wingers anyway you wish.

    • Neil Parker 2016-08-09 at 08:42

      I like Pearson, too. I guess my bigger point was there are openings, and LA could choose to roll with Kempe because he’s talented and could prove to be a better option than everyone but Pearson in a top-six role.

      • Philip 2016-08-09 at 18:59

        Just thought I’d add Mersch to that list of forwards that are ahead of Kempe as far as development. Kempe is good, no question, but he didn’t show consistency last season.

    • BF 2016-08-10 at 10:26

      Breakthroughs typically don’t happen in an age 24/25 season. An NHL forward should be hitting their peak in that season so I think it would be a little unreasonable to assume that Pearson will all of a sudden take off at this stage. One should also note that he had an obscenely high shooting % two years ago (17.6%) and that his performance last year is likely to reflect his goal scoring going forward (15 goals/season).

      • Striker 2016-08-10 at 19:59

        I would argue the vast majority pf players have their breakthroughs at 24 to 26. The point a player starts his NHL career full time, the # of regular season games played etc are a bigger factor. It takes forwards approximately 4 full seasons or in or around 200 regular season games to become the player they will be in the NHL. Defensemen & monster forwards; 6’3″, 225 lbs +, closer to 6 years or 400 games.

        Very few young players step into the NHL in their draft year; of last seasons 1st round picks, 5 played in the NHL last season, McDavid, Eichel & Hanafin essentially full time & Rantanen had a cup of coffee 9 games & Zacha 1 game. The majority take 2 to 3 years just to get to the NHL in some capacity; drafted at 18, now 21, & then another 4; 200 games, to 6; 400 games, years depending upon if their forwards or Dman to show who they truly are & have their breakthroughs. Breaking through at 24 to 26.

        Pearson arrived late to the NHL. Last season was his 1st full season. He has gone 7 points in 25 games, 16 in 42 games & last season 36 in 79. I would expect next season he scores 20 goals & 50 points, the season following 25 goals & 60 points.

        Mike Hoffman is another example. He’s 26 now, 27 in November. His breakthrough is coming next season. 40 goals & 70+ points if he plays at least 75 games. It’s not his age but primarily his NHL experience that will determine when he breakthrough. It’s the 80 20 rule. 80 % follow a standard development curve regardless of age, 20 % swing either way positive or negative in the formula. Watching minutes played in all situations is essential.

        If Pearson see’s at least top 10 PP TOI/GP next season he will hit my target. If not he won’t. Even with the addition of Purcell he should easily make the top 10 for PP TOI/GP & in my fantasy leagues being a LW I will draft high quite high as we protect 240 players deep; 20 teams 12 keepers, 2 C’s, 2 RW”s, 2 LW’s, 2 D A G & 2 wildcards, & LW & RW even more so are hard positions to fill. If he some how ends up taking Lucic’s line position all bets are off; he’ll be even better, but worst case scenario I see him with Carter. Top 6 forward in LA next season.

        • BF 2016-08-11 at 13:29

          We don’t really need to argue about it. Multiple studies have been done that show NHL forwards point totals begin to regress past their age 25 season. Our opinions (and your odd 80/20 NHL rule) about specific players don’t really matter much when the data is there…
          1) http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/13/5500522/nhl-scoring-stats-rates-age-analysis
          2) http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/when-nhlers-get-old-they-get-old-fast/

          Sidenote: I like Mike Hoffman. He won’t score 40+ goals and 70 points at any point in his career. He would have to put up 330+ shots (using his average shooting percentage) to achieve 40 goals, a shot total only achieved by 2 players last season and one which Hoffman was ~90 away from.

          • Dobber 2016-08-11 at 13:45

            Correct. Multiple studies. Here’s one that says the age is 29:
            http://news.ubc.ca/2014/05/15/nhl-study/
            My own study, albeit from 20 years ago in university for a math project (my degree was in stats, but I had a minor in math), had it pegged at 28.
            It all depends on how the data is read and defined, how the samples are taken, etc. But I’ll have a hard time ever believing a player peaks at 25 or even 26. A lot of players don’t even start in the league until that point.

          • BF 2016-08-11 at 15:04

            I too saw that study and read through it (BTW age for forwards he had in this was 27-28 not age 29) but the problem with leveraging this one as opposed to the two I posted above is that the raw data used in the UBC study goes back too far in time and pre-dates even the salary cap in the NHL. If we are looking to analyze the age curve of current NHL players it would be much more prudent to use the studies that range from 2007/08-2013/14 as opposed to the one that goes from 1997/98 to 2011/12. The cap has forced teams to utilize players in much more prominent roles at much younger ages and would likely explain the decrease from 27-28 to 25-26.

            I don’t know that you can have a hard time believing statistical data.

          • Dobber 2016-08-11 at 15:13

            Sure I can. I spent four years of my life with nothing but stats stats stats, so many methods and practices that it made my head spin. Data can be pulled in a manner that skews the result easily. I could prove to you, given a few hours, that the age to peak is 31. Given a few more hours I could then prove that it is 24. You need the right sampling, you need the data clearly defined and agreed upon by most, you need to eliminate outliers (25 is often the age where a player has to clear waivers so he’s kept up – gets a few points, but shows he’s not an NHLer so his numbers go down after that, dragging the result down)
            Like I said, my numbers showed 28, but my own thorough analysis is 20+ years old and I do believe the number is down to 27. And I believe that stats can be tweaked to show completely different numbers. Those are my beliefs, you have yours, the world keeps on spinning ;)

          • BF 2016-08-11 at 15:49

            I’d love to see the analysis on this age 31 peak you’ve mentioned :)

          • Dobber 2016-08-11 at 16:47

            Sure. First I would only include NHLers who made their debut at age 24 or older. If that didn’t give me the result I wanted, then I would focus only on Europeans. If none of that worked, then I would scrap everything and start over – but only do NHLers who played in the league until they were 38 or older. I’d find the right sample, trust me. These examples were just after two seconds of thought ;)
            Easy peasey

          • Dobber 2017-06-21 at 08:45

            Rick’s data proves 100% what I’ve been saying.
            When I said I “could” prove that the peak age is 31 I meant that I could prove any age I want to prove, I just need to fiddle with the sample size. You knew I was making a joke right? And that 31 was a random number I pulled from a hat?

            My belief is 27-29, and my own analysis said 28. I believe Rick’s analysis says 27.9 or something like that. Bang on what I’ve been saying. Thanks for reinforcing my point!

          • Striker 2016-08-11 at 20:36

            I wasn’t aware we were arguing.

            Both articles say the same thing quoting the same article but provide ZERO specifics. How many players were included in the study, how many NHL games did they play in their career, what players over what years, how does it account for the reduction in scoring over that time frame? It did mention 2 years once. really! Not exactly scientific & again no facts supported.

            The average life span of an NHL hockey player accounting for all players is just over 3 years, most don’t make their full pension # of 350 games. See following.

            http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/CareerLengthGP.php

            I say take the best player from each team, then take the median player; median is the player that sits dead center in games played for that season counting from 1 to however many played. Pick the player dead center, but lets remove any players from the equation that didn’t play at least 25 games for said team in that season. Lets also take the 3rd to last player. 3 players from each team. The best, the median average & the 3rd worst; I didn’t choose the worst as many teams still dress a player that really barely plays & simply fills a sweater, a goon, PP specialist, 3 on 3 specialist, shoot out specialist but essentially a player that is lucky to spend more than 6 mins on the ice in TOI/GP or didn’t meet the 25 games played threshold. If interested do for Dman as well.

            I’ll take who I assume is the best player at least from an offensive perspective. Defensive players don’t get due credit & a ton of Dman that play essential roles in a teams success yet get even less.

            Now go run it for all 30 teams. When done let me know what your thoughts are. It doesn’t actually take that long, about 5 mins per team. I’m now on Minnesota, pattern holds.

            I don’t careless when a player posts his best season. What I care about is when it starts, when they see top 6 icetime at forward or top 4 at D, do they get PP time, who are their linemates, how much PP time do they get & how long can they maintain their position among their peers scoring at comparable scoring rates.

            All good be well. Keep your stick on the ice. Game on.

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