September 13 2015

Ian Gooding

2015-09-13

Young Stars tournament, Marleau vs. E. Staal, mock draft on Yahoo

Neil mentioned Connor McDavid’s debut in Saturday’s Ramblings, and he mentioned the hit on McDavid by Jake Virtanen. So I won’t expand on the game much further, even though I had a chance to watch much of it from the Canucks’ website. Below is the Virtanen hit on McDavid (right at the beginning of the video), followed by other Virtanen hits, including one on Darnell Nurse.
 


If Virtanen is trying to make the Canucks (of course he is), then he’s sure getting himself noticed. The Canucks need a power forward with that edge, as they finished near the bottom of the league in that category and were massively outhit by the Flames in the playoffs. I’m going to guess that Virtanen will be retained for the nine-game trial, similar to Bo Horvat last season. But he could still be sent back to the WHL as an overager, even though he participated in the AHL playoffs last season.

McDavid was not in the Oilers’ lineup Saturday against the Flames’ prospects, although he is expected to play Monday against the Jets’ prospects. As Neil also mentioned, McDavid is being bubble wrapped to some degree. But think about it: McDavid has nothing to prove at this tournament. He’ll make the Oilers this season. But most of the other prospects probably won’t, so this is a critical tournament for them. It’s too bad for the fans, though, as many have travelled all the way from various locales across Western Canada to watch the Next One.

For more on the various prospect tournaments and players to watch, you’ll want to read Allan Muir’s article on SI.

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I wrote a few paragraphs on how I view McDavid as a fantasy commodity this season for Today’s Slapshot in an article on studs, duds, and sleepers at the center position. Basically I consider McDavid to be a sleeper, simply because he could move up significantly from his pre-draft ranking, which is somewhere around the edge of the top 50 in single-season leagues.

Many are talking about Taylor Hall being primed for a huge season because of McDavid. I agree – on one condition. That condition is that he can remain injury-free for most of the season. Over four full NHL seasons, Hall has averaged just 64 games played. As well, Hall has surpassed 60 points in a season just once – when he scored 80 points upon playing a career-high 75 games in 2013-14. Yes, Hall is a certified Band-Aid Boy.

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Time for another Who’s Better in Fantasy Hockey. Today will feature two veteran left wingers whose value has dropped over the last couple seasons: Eric Staal and Patrick Marleau.

Yes, Staal is a center in Yahoo, but he is listed as a left wing in CBS. However, the two are very closely ranked in Yahoo (Marleau 80, Staal 93) and NHL.com composite rankings (Staal 83, Marleau 113). The fact that they are not ranked in the same order makes them worthy of a comparison.

After being perennial 70+ point players for much of their careers, both Staal and Marleau slipped to under 60 points in 2014-15. In fact, Marleau failed to reach 20 goals in a full season for the first time since 2007-08, a year that was an outlier based on how bad it was. Both players were also double-digit minus players in 2014-15, while Staal has been a double-digit minus player for two consecutive seasons.

One advantage that Marleau has is his quality of teammates. There’s his traditional setup man, Joe Thornton (more on him below). He could also find himself skating alongside Joe Pavelski or Logan Couture. But unlike Marleau, Staal has to be the man in Carolina. There are some promising players in Carolina such as Elias Lindholm and Jeff Skinner (if he can get back on track).

Staal’s value could increase if he is moved from Carolina. Or not, if he is moved to a team that will only provide him with second-line minutes. On the other hand, he seems comfortable in Carolina with his brother Jordan Staal there. But he has only one year left on his contract before he is a UFA.

This is a tough one. Both wingers should be due for a slight rebound that should put them at around 60-65 points. That being said, Staal is at a deeper position on Yahoo, so Marleau deserves to be the higher-ranked player on there. However, Staal sold for significantly more money than Marleau in my auction keeper league on CBS. So if Staal happens to be a winger in your league, I might take him before Marleau.

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I decided to see how well a fantasy draft would work on a tablet by testing a Yahoo mock draft on it. I had heard stories about how drafts weren’t working well on phones, but I didn’t seem to lose anything by using a tablet (aside from no keyboard, which is slower to me). I’m thinking that a tablet might be useful for me because portability will be important – I may be drafting in a league or two while eating dinner or putting kids to bed. My world doesn’t stand still for fantasy drafts, unfortunately.

About the draft itself, here are the results. Feel free to throw your tomatoes below in the comments.

 

 

Aside from myself, there appeared to be two other real-life participants. I believe the other teams are computer-generated, so you know that they’ll be picking according to the rankings.

I might have been able to pick Mr. Everything, aka Alex Ovechkin, with the first pick. But it really sucks having to wait 26 more picks before having to make two in a row. There is no doubt many of you will probably prefer having a “middle” pick, so that there isn’t such a long break in which an entire tier of goaltenders or defensemen are gone by the time you need to choose one.

I was surprised as to how far both Joe Thornton and Jack Eichel fell. Both are centers, which is the deepest position out there. Notice that Thornton was drafted in the 12th round, even though he was in the top 10 in assists last season. Thornton was drafted at 168, while Eichel was drafted two picks later at 170. The NA in front of Eichel’s name could have meant that the computer was set to bypass him.

Overall, the draft was a lot of fun and great practice for the real ones, for which I’ll be doing a few. I’m in the DobberHockey Experts League for the first time, so there’s no doubt I’ll need to bring my A game.

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Some quick player news: Johan Franzen has been cleared to participate in training camp (NHL.com). Honestly, I’ve been debating whether to buy him out in my keeper league, but this news suggests that there may be something there.

If Franzen can somehow stay in the lineup for a full season, he’d be a must-own in fantasy leagues. But he has suited up for only 50 percent of his team’s games over the last two seasons. Also, he’s probably only one more concussion away from retirement. To boot, the Wings have him on the books for five more seasons. Yikes.  

Thanks for reading, and enjoy your Sunday.

9 Comments

  1. Chad Burly 2015-09-13 at 10:48

    Nobody likes Thornton! His trade value in my leagues has been dirt, so i jist keep on keeping him and winning titles.

  2. paul 2015-09-13 at 10:50

    Good stuff thanks for the writeup.

    Nurse stood up for teammates in game 2 very well and appeared ready to take on all comers.

    • Ian Gooding 2015-09-13 at 15:06

      Yeah he did, didn't he? He easily won that fight with Andersson.

      If I were an Oilers fan (which I'm definitely not), I'd be almost as excited about Nurse as I am about McDavid. Nurse brings an element to their blueline that they've been missing for a long time.

  3. fraser young 2015-09-13 at 13:14

    I think you meant to say " Franzen has been cleared to get hurt again in training camp " !! Lol

  4. J Haid 2015-09-13 at 13:17

    your team is solid……i dont like yandle as much in ny……klingberg is a stud….

  5. horrorfan 2015-09-13 at 15:02

    Not sure if it was your ramblings or someone else's, but Pengwin I believe a week or two ago explained why centres are going lower than you expect in mocks. Since the default set up is 2 for each forward position and 4 D, Yahoo fills all starting slots first. So, once you have those 2 C, then it will likely have to fill the rest of the D in the middle rounds and then bench afterwards. As Thornton is ranked lower than the default number of C in the top x starting (28 in your case – 2 x 14), he'd likely be a bench C in an autodrafted team and drafted on average lower than expected.

    • Ian Gooding 2015-09-13 at 15:11

      That's a really good point, and something I've thought about in the past in those standard-sized Yahoo leagues. Some really good centers tend to fall or even not get drafted at all.

  6. Cam Robinson 2015-09-13 at 16:26

    Great read Ian! Just a point: Jake Virtanen just turned 19 in mid-August meaning he would not be an overager if sent back the junior this fall. Overage players are 20 when the season starts, and may even turn 21 by year's end. Jake won't turn 20 until the year is long over and would be considered an overager for the 2016-2017 season. However at that point he would assuredly be placed in he AHL; somewhere he is not eligible to play this season due to his young age. 

    • Ian Gooding 2015-09-14 at 00:46

      Thanks Cam. And yes, you are correct… I assumed a player couldn’t be in junior 3 years after being drafted… but I guess it is possible.

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