Top 10 most likely first-time 70-point players

Tom Collins

2016-10-03

The Top 10 most likely candidates to be first-time 70-point players in 2016-17

 

Getting to the 70-point mark nowadays is the hardest its been since the days of the clutch and grab. Last year saw 17 players get 70-plus points. Five of them did it for the first time (Brent Burns, Blake Wheeler, Johnny Gaudreau, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Artemi Panarin). Trying to figure out who is going to do the same this year is key to winning hockey pools. While people used high draft picks on Tyler Seguin or John Tavares, you could have picked up Kuznetsov and Panarin much later and gotten the same production. So which players have a good shot to hit 70 points for their first time this year? Just keep in mind that the odds of all these players reaching this mark are low. But some players will do it and these are the ones that stand out to me as having the best chance.

 

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Also, you’ll notice there is no Nikita Kucherov on the list. He would normally be a top-three pick for me. But as of this writing, he wasn’t signed and looks like he may miss the first few games of the season. I think Kucherov could get 70 points in a full season. But in 75 or less games? Probably not. If he signs in the next week, I would put him pretty high on this list. I’m using the same logic for not including Sean Monahan. With linemate Johnny Gaudreau not signed yet, that will greatly impact Monahan’s chances to reach 70 points.

Onto the list.

 

10. James van Riemsdyk

Van Riemsdyk has slowly become the forgotten player in Toronto. Everyone is focusing on the three rookies: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. Even Nazem Kadri has been getting plenty of love. But the Leafs still need a veteran to lead these young guns and the 27-year-old van Riemsdyk is the best option with plenty of ice time.

 

9. Filip Forsberg

Last year just goes to show how talented Forsberg actually is. Much of the time he was stuck playing with Mike Ribeiro, Craig Smith and Mike Fisher. This year could see him line up regularly with Ryan Johansen instead. As Donald Trump would say, that’s huge. And let’s not forget the addition of P.K. Subban could help boost the middle-of-the-pack offense. That in turn could lead to more points for Forsberg.

 

8. Mike Hoffman

Hoffman has a lot to live up to this season as he signed a four-year deal this summer. But more importantly, he won’t be jerked around by coach Dave Cameron anymore. There’s a familiar face behind the bench in Guy Boucher (Boucher was Hoffman’s coach in junior). I expect Hoffman to see more ice time and could potentially flirt with 40 goals as well as 70 points.

 

7. Jack Eichel

Eichel will benefit simply by this young team being another year older. Plus, they now have Kyle Okposo (who I ranked number one on a similar list a year ago although I think Eichel will finish just shy of 70 points once again). Eichel should take that next step forward and be able to hit 70 points.

 

6. Nathan MacKinnon

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I’ve mentioned MacKinnon many times this summer as someone in line for a boost this year although it is hard to overlook that he’s been injured in each of the last two years. But he’s also spent his entire NHL career playing for Patrick Roy. Things should be different now that MacKinnon has a competent coach. Provided he stays healthy, of course.

 

5. Alexander Radulov

Not only does Radulov have a great chance at hitting 70 points himself, it’s quite possible he’ll be the guy to drag Max Pacioretty over the 70-point mark for the first time in his career as well. Radulov has posted great stats in the KHL where he had a point-per-game in each of the last seven seasons. Radulov will be on the top line in Montreal and see plenty of power play time. He’s also going to be playing for a long-term deal if he wants to stay in North America.

 

4. Mark Scheifele

Scheifele just needs a little more consistently than he had last year. Five times he went at least three straight games without a point, including a six-game and a five-game pointless streak. But he did finish the year with 34 points in 26 games and had 61 points in 71 games. And he had just 11 points with the man advantage. He needs to increase those power play totals to get to reach 70 but it’s easily doable.

 

3. Tyler Toffoli

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that Toffoli will be the biggest breakout player by the end of the season. His ice time has gone up every single season. So has his point totals. He can also hold his own defensively, which means less chance of being benched. He also saw quite a bit of time with Anze Kopitar last year. So yeah, lots of reasons to think he can hit 70 points.

 

2. Kris Letang

All Letang really needs to do to hit 70 points is stay healthy. But let’s not forget that last year he put up 67 points in 71 games. And that’s with a slow start by most of the Penguins players. Letang actually had 53 points in 46 games once new coach Mike Sullivan was hired. Those are insane numbers (a 94-point pace over 82 games).

 

1. Connor McDavid

Well, duh. They only thing going against him is his injury history. Granted its relatively short. But he’s missed significant time in the last two seasons when you include juniors. Yes, it’s still early and one of those injuries involved him getting into a fight. But the same thing happened to Taylor Hall and we all know how much of a headache his injuries became for fantasy GMs. Regardless, McDavid is a generational talent and should be good for his first 70-point campaign this year. 

 

 

22 Comments

  1. Steve 2016-10-03 at 08:48

    Mark Stone has a better chance than Hoffman

    • Dave 2016-10-03 at 08:59

      Not if he has a concussion.

      • Steve 2016-10-03 at 09:03

        He doesn’t. Already practicing

        • larrylintz 2016-10-06 at 07:48

          After seeing some Sens games i get the feeling Brassard is the most likely Sen to hit 70, i think he’ll be central to pp and mesh very well with Karlsson. Like almost everyone in NHL he’s never had a d-man like EK, and in his case not even close.

    • Tom Collins 2016-10-03 at 10:15

      I obviously disagree. I think Stone is a 60-65 point guy. But there’s something special (and underrated) about Hoffman.

      • Steve 2016-10-03 at 10:18

        But Stone is more special and simply better than Hoffman. I’m a sens fan so I know both extremely well. Stone imo will always outproduce him, he’s younger and has already scored more than Hoffman in the last two seasons. He’s a big time scorer and one of the best wingers in hockey. Hoffman will score more goals, but for points and who could reach 70, its Stone all day long. Both should be close, but is taken the more proven and more talented player.

        • Tom Collins 2016-10-03 at 10:54

          Perhaps. We’ll see. Stone has outproduced Hoffman in each of the last two years. But it was by just two or three points last year. And that’s with Stone playing three more minutes per game in each of the last two years, plus averaging more power play time. And Hoffman takes a lot more shots (which bodes better for the goal total rising). I’m not knocking Stone, but Hoffman would be my bet.

          • Stu Campaigne 2016-10-03 at 11:05

            No retort in a hockey debate should begin with “I’m a Sens fan.”

          • Peter Mojzisik 2016-10-03 at 13:52

            I like your TOI example, but along with that you also need to include level of competition. Hoffman has had easier opponents and has put up more points against them. He should see more ice time with Boucher, but he will also be seeing tougher competition. I think Stone will continue to produce and probably improve, but Hoffman will probably find it harder to put the puck in the net and will see his point total decrease.

          • Tom Collins 2016-10-03 at 15:02

            Perhaps. Good point about quality of competition. But I think he’ll rise above it.

          • Mark McAuley 2016-10-03 at 16:55

            This depends a great deal on how Stone recovers from his concussion. If they both played 82 games, it’d be a different story.

  2. frozenpools 2016-10-03 at 09:05

    A 27 year old to post a career high? Who do you think he is, the Sedins? ;)

    • Tom Collins 2016-10-03 at 10:14

      Ha! He’s not even the oldest. Letang is 29 and Radulov is 30.

      • frozenpools 2016-10-03 at 15:15

        Well Radulov hasnt been in the league in 5 years and Letang is a dman. Dmen have later peak years. Also with Letang its more of an issue of staying healthy. Been a PPG player for most of his career.

  3. BF 2016-10-03 at 09:26

    “But more importantly, he won’t be jerked around by coach Dave Campbell anymore.”
    *Dave Cameron

    • Tom Collins 2016-10-03 at 10:12

      Darn it. I even looked it up to make sure I got it right, and still got it wrong. Thanks for the correction.

  4. bergman 2016-10-03 at 13:34

    How about Barkov?

    • Tom Collins 2016-10-03 at 14:54

      I don’t trust he can stay healthy long enough to get to 70 points.

  5. Mark McAuley 2016-10-03 at 17:00

    While I agree that Letang has the talent necessary to score 70 points, his ES point-per-game average has fluctuated a lot over the past 5 seasons, and one also has to consider the effect that the Stanley Cup hangover may have.

  6. Robert Nardini 2016-10-03 at 17:37

    All the players are already kept in my 12 team 6 keeoer league … any outside of the box picks like panarin for this year?

    • Tom Collins 2016-10-04 at 10:00

      Those are the hardest to predict. Who would have figured Panarin would get 70 points? Or Foligno two years ago? There’s always some surprises.

  7. larrylintz 2016-10-03 at 22:09

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Stone out-pointed Hoffman but the one negative i see for Stone is that he’s the designated guy in front of the net on pp, which means he doesn’t get many touches except when he tips or gets garbage goals. Hoffman on the other hand is on the point and is constantly getting sweet dishes from EK.

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