Ramblings: Rookies who may go back to the AHL next year; Sid and the Kids – and much more (Apr. 17)

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Occasionally an NHL organization will deem one of its 18- or 19-year-old prospects too good for junior hockey but not eligible to play in the AHL because of their agreement with the CHL. So they have to make a tough decision – either keep the prospect in the NHL with little ice time, or send him to junior where he’ll just skate around a bunch of ‘children’ (relatively speaking) and dominate for 130 points. Neither option is great for development, but that’s what the club needs to decide. And then, when that player turns 20, he is eligible to go to the AHL. So the club has another decision to make – keep him in the NHL and maybe he’ll get more ice time. Or send him to the AHL to make adjustments, even though he just played 70 or 80 NHL games last season. You saw this with Nino Niederreiter, Mikkel Boedker, Mirco Mueller and many others. What I’m saying is – just because your prospect made the NHL at the age of 19, it doesn’t mean that he’s a lock to remain in the league in 2017-18.

Obviously Mitch Marner is here to stay. But others like him may not be, and I have a few players that you should be keeping an eye on because they stand a strong chance of being in the AHL in the fall. Likelihood is the likelihood of being sent to the AHL next season (in my opinion).

Lawson Crouse, Arizona – His minus-20 season along with the fact that Christian Fischer is probably a better prospect, Clayton Keller’s arrival, and Dylan Strome knocking on the door, could see to it that Crouse is with Tucson in the fall. Likelihood: 8/10

Travis Konecny, Philadelphia – Konecny just had a strong season with the Flyers and at times he was the only player producing. Other times, he tended to disappear. He’s pretty safe to stay in the NHL, but not as sure a thing as say a Marner, for example. Likelihood: 1/10

Pavel Zacha, New Jersey – This is a tough one, because Zacha showed flashes of stardom during a six-game points streak in March. But he also suffered two head/face injuries including a concussion, plus several healthy scratches. Would he be best served having one full AHL season in which he’s among the league leaders in scoring? Well, the Devils don’t have a ton of talented options on the big club. Likelihood: 4/10

Jakob Chychrun, Arizona – Still only 19, the Coyotes have to keep him up anyway or he has to play in Sarnia (OHL). So he’s staying. Likelihood: 0/10

Matt Tkachuk, Calgary – Not going anywhere, as he was a key part of the Calgary roster. He’d have to go back to junior anyway, as he’s ineligible for the AHL in the fall. Likelihood: 0/10

Brandon Carlo, Boston – Carlo was a fantastic surprise for Bruins fans, showing poise and consistency beyond his years. He logged nearly 21 minutes of ice time per game. He’s here to stay. Likelihood: 0/10

Mitchell Marner, Toronto – Well, considering he’s a Calder Trophy candidate, he’s probably pretty safe! Likelihood: 0/10

Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia – He’s not going anywhere. Like Konecny, he did have a couple of ‘off’ games but for the most part he was a stabilizing presence on the back end (and sometimes he was the only one). Likelihood: 0/10

Anthony Beauvillier, NY Islanders – He was a healthy scratch more than 15 times, but he started to get leaned on heavily late in the season when they needed him most (and John Tavares was hurt). Still, a half-season in the AHL couldn’t hurt. Likelihood: 6/10

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Besides Will Butcher (Colorado) there is another potential college star who could go UFA in August. New Jersey prospect Alexander Kerfoot. He’s talking with the Devils though, so it’s possible that he stays. Here is a good update on his situation. And here is his profile on DobberProspects.

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Last week I said that I don’t trust Jake Allen. In fact, I believe I said “zero percent”. Since then, he’s been the hottest goalie in the league and has completely shut down the Wild. And while I freely admit I was wrong here, this only serves to prove my point. He’s looked like an absolutely stud on seven or eight different occasions over the last three years but has never failed to let his fantasy owners down. Usually it’s because his hot run is stopped short by an injury happening at the worst time. Occasionally it’s because he hits an equivalent cold funk. Anyway, he sure has Minnesota’s number and I won’t be selling him short in my projections for next round, that’s for sure.

Another thing that I’ve noted before is how mediocre the Wild are when the Granlund line is contained. I made a serious error in believing that the Granlund – Koivu line would get it going again when I chose Minnesota to not only win the series, but to go to the Final. A big part of this failure is the slumping Jason Zucker, who in my mind is the NHL’s streakiest player. He has four points in his last 21 games. Earlier, he had 21 points in 20 games! Before that – pointless in nine games, which came after six points in five games. Try forecasting that!

Wow…

Blues have been outshot 117-79 by Wild, lost faceoff battle 133-89 and their power play is 1-for-9. But they're up 3-0 and haven't trailed.

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) April 17, 2017

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On one hand, it’s good when a team of yours – one that has several of your playoff fantasy players – moves on to the next round. But when they do it in four games it actually hurts you. I know it’s hard for you to cheer against Pittsburgh and against St. Louis in Game 4 when you own the likes of Crosby/Malkin or Steen/Tarasenko/etc. – but you kind of have to. It could mean the difference, come June, between winning by three points or losing by three points.

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If Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary and Sidney Crosby are all healthy for at least 75 games each next season, then all three will top 85 points. I’m saying it right now. Putting it out there. This is the most talented, in-sync line that I’ve seen in a decade. Maybe two decades. This is what I was saying at a family Easter gathering on Sunday before the Pittsburgh game even started. One win – and one Guentzel hat trick – later, and perhaps I undershot with my bold projection! Every shift something happens, and they always seem to know where each other will be. I only wish Sheary were two inches and 15 pounds bigger because he does get pushed around too easily. But he can keep up with his linemates and his motor is always running.

I also added my favorite Guentzel – Crosby – Sheary clip at the bottom.

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One positive for the Blue Jackets is Cam Atkinson picked up his first two-point game in 34 days. If he’s shaken off his slump then the team has a shot at taking a game or two. Just like Minnesota is mediocre without Mikael Granlund going, Columbus is mediocre without Atkinson going.

And as an aside – I find it pretty stubborn of John Tortorella to still keep Atkinson and Alexander Wennberg apart. Their best goal scorer. Their best setup man. Never playing together. Makes sense…

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Arizona signed an intriguing goaltending prospect in Hunter Miska. Details and scouting report here. But the 21-year-old was actually a forward until high school when his team needed a goalie. He was a natural, and so he may have snuck past many scouts. He was 27-5-5 for Minnesota-Duluth and was the only freshman among five candidates for the goaltender of the year.

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Alexander Radulov is showing the NHL how he loves to step up his game in the clutch. Five points in his last two playoff games, both wins.

I still think the Habs take this series, especially because Artturi Lehkonen is now a regular contributor the offense. Lehkonen had 11 points in the last 12 games to end the season, and scored Sunday night.

I am surprised, however, that the reason the Rangers are losing is because of lack of offense – and their goaltending is just fine. I thought Henrik Lundqvist would be reason, but he’s been steady. It’s the offense that’s sputtering.

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Joe Thornton returned to the San Jose lineup. Regardless of where he sits on the health-o-meter, his return didn’t help the Sharks solve Cam Talbot, who has been on fire at the right time. Talbot has back-to-back playoff shutouts. Too bad it’s impossible for the Oilers to play the Blues next round if their hot goalies continue to lead them out of this round. Hot goalies can kill a good team…but what happens if two hot goalies square off against each other?

Zach Kassian scored his second consecutive game-winning goal last night.

Three games in and the leading scorer for the Sharks is the only player on the team with two points – Marc-Eduard Vlasic.

In the last 19 regular season and playoff games Brent Burns has six points and is minus-5.

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According to Elias – when teams are tied 1-1 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Playoffs series, the winner of Game 3 holds an all-time series record of 202-97 (67.6%).

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Ridiculousness: