Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

As has become tradition in the offseason, I shift my focus from looking at three skaters to instead assess three goalies. It's still the same as Goldipucks, where one of the three had a 2023-24 that was too hot, another whose 2023-24 was too cold, and lastly a third whose was just right. The three goalies being covered are Jake Oettinger, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Can you successfully shift gears from the norm to be able to sniff out which was too hot, who was too cold, and whose stats were just right for 2023-24? Go ahead and make a note of your guesses, then read on to see if you nailed all three.

Jake Oettinger (54 games started, 35 Wins, 4 OT Losses, 3 Shutouts, 2.72 GAA, .905 SV%)

Seen as the goalie of the future for Dallas when they picked him in the first round in 2017, that future came likely earlier than Dallas had imagined when, after posting solid numbers upon being pressed into duty for 29 games in 2020-21, Oettinger leapfrogged Brayden Holtby and Anton Khudobin to become the starter for the Stars by the end of 2021-22 at just age 23. And he hasn't looked back since, winning 37 games in 2022-23 and 35 in 2023-24. But his GAA and SV% in 2023-24 were by far the worst of his career, prompting poolies to wonder if that was just a speed bump or is Otter not as great a goalie as we once thought? It seems the latter, with 2023-24 most likely not marking the end of his stats, particularly his peripherals, going in the wrong directions.

In 139 games prior to 2023-24, Oettinger had a total of nine really bad starts. But just last season alone, he had ten in just 54 games. Also, although the definition of "Really Bad Start" is when a goalie's SV% in a game is 0.850 or worse, Oettinger had a lot of really, really bad starts, as in more than half his SV% was under .800. Also, he had four more starts with a SV% under 0.875, meaning he just as easily could've had four more Really Bad Starts. Yes, that does mean he had some great games to balance things out; however, for a goalie who is gaining more experience to have done so markedly worse in RBSs is not a good sign.

Also of concern is Oettinger's performance in high danger situations. The good news is his team only forced him to have to face 23.9% of his saves in high danger situations, which ranked 19th highest of 31 goalies who appeared in 41+ games in 2023-24. The bad news is among those 31 goalies, his 0.777 high danger save percentage was tied for dead last with Alex Lyon. There is no way to sugarcoat that stat, and it does not bode well for Oettinger going forward, as top tier goalies need to shine in this area, or at least not be this awful.

Another concern is Oettinger's worst SV% in terms of days rest were for one day (0.893) and two days (.877), which are the typical rest amounts for a workhorse. In fact, it was only his SV% of .927 for three days rest and 0.932 for four or more days rest that prevented his SV% from being truly dismal. And although Casey DeSmith is a decent back-up, there's little doubt Dallas envisions Oettinger playing at least two-thirds of its games, which, if it occurs, will likely see Oettinger fare even worse than what we saw from him in 2023-24.

Looking at Oettinger's comparables in terms of other goalies who, since 1990-91, had 30+ wins, a .914+ SV%, but under a 62% QS% in their age 23 and 24 seasons, we get some very good goalies in Andrei Vasilevskiy (covered next), Connor Hellebuyck, and Carey Price, but also John Gibson and Cam Ward. Whereas Vas and Price didn't hit stumbling blocks until later, the other three did, with only Hellebuyck righting his ship, and his case his age 25 stumbling season still had only six really bad starts in nine more games than Otter, and a SV% of .914 despite a 2.90 GAA. In other words, it might be that Oettinger is cut more from the Gibson or Ward cloth than that of the other three netminders.

What about Oettinger only allowing 17 goals in his last ten starts? Sure – some might see that as him being able to carry momentum into the 2024-25 season, especially after he also shined in the playoffs as well. But one could also argue that was all that prevented his season from being a total disaster. Plus he started the 2023-24 campaign by allowing more than three goals in a game just twice in his first 16 starts, with double the number of games allowing one or no goals. The issue is what happened in between, especially in the face of other metrics.

Lastly, Oettinger played quite a bit better on the road than at home, with a .912 SV% away from home versus 0.898 in Dallas, and also better, albeit less glaringly so, Quality Start rates and GAA away versus home. How many other workhorse goalies had the same pattern? Of the 20 goalies who played 50+ games last season, just Joonas Korpisalo, Cam Talbot, and Vasilevskiy had all three metrics worse at home than on the road. More on Vas below, but being in the company of the other two is not a positive sign.

Still only 25, Oettinger is seen by many poolies as a netminder with a very bright fantasy future. But digging deeper reveals signs of concerns that he might have peaked early ala Ward and Gibson. I fear what we saw in 2023-24 was the start of worse yet to come, and as such his 2023-24 was TOO HOT. The good news is Dallas is too good of a team for things to completely unravel; however, Ward backstopped plenty of very good Carolina teams and that didn't stop him from what went from such a promising start to what was ultimately a disappointing career. As such Oettinger gets a rating of 6.5, as his peripherals likely will get even worse, but they shouldn’t completely crater.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (52 games started, 30 Wins, 2 OTLs, 2 Shutouts, 2.90 GAA, .900 SV%)

Also a first round pick earmarked for success, Vas was a full time starter even earlier than Oettinger, at age 22. Since then, he's been a stalwart for the Bolts, consistently at or near the top of the league in starts and wins. What's been missing of late was his formerly great peripherals, as his GAA rose and SV% dropped for the third straight season. Are Vas' days as a top tier netminder over, or might he have had a rough time in 2023-24 due to missing the first chunk of the season? It might be that we've seen the best of Vas, but a bounce back for 2024-25 does seem to be in the cards.

While it is correct that Vas' peripherals have been on the decline, not only is there an explanation, but also hope it might be reversible. In 2021-22, the first year of the trend, he played, between the playoffs and regular season, an amazing 86 games. The next highest total was Igor Shesterkin with 73, and what happened to Shesterkin since then? He's never been quite as good.

As for 2022-23, Vas only played 64 total games because the Bolts were swept in round one of the playoffs. But lo and behold he needed offseason surgery, so he likely was not 100% for chunks of 2022-23, as evidenced by his Q4 numbers being his worst of the season. Plus, it resulted in him not being able to go to training camp and to get normal offseason training and preparation for 2023-24. Long story short, 2024-25 will mark the first season since Vas' downward trend that he hasn't been overworked, or likely playing hurt, or having to join his team without the benefit of training camp and offseason preparation. If there was ever a time for him to rebound, this is it.

Let's also consider Vasilevskiy just turned 30 years old. Looking at other goalies who had the most instances of 30+ wins and a .915+ SV% between ages 23 and 29, and dating back to 1990-91, we find that just one other did so as many times – six – as Vas, and that was Henrik Lundqvist. And guess what, Lundqvist continued to be an elite netminder until age 35. Granted, he didn't have a poorer stretch of seasons like Vas; however, Lundqvist also had played a total of just 37 playoffs games in his entire career by age 30, with the most in one season being ten, twice. Contrast that to Vas, who thus far has logged 115 playoff games, or nearly triple what Lundqvist had. Yes, Lundqvist did play more games during some regular seasons; but having the offseason to rest and recuperate is huge, and King Henrik enjoyed that benefit often before turning 30, whereas Vas, until this offseason, had not.

Switching gears, was Vas' 2023-24 season really as bad as it seemed? We need to keep in mind that four of his nine – a career high – Really Bad Starts came in his first 18 games, giving up six goals twice. In contrast, in his last ten starts he gave up one goal four times and two goals once. This seems to be in keeping with a goalie who started rusty and who over the course of the season was getting back on track. 

Also, concerns about the Tampa team in front of him and how that will affect him going forward might be overblown, as last season, easily Tampa's weakest in years, still saw Vas face an average shot distance of 35.4 feet and high danger shot percentage of 24.2%. Yes, that is a somewhat lower shot distance than would be preferred, but it was nearly identical to that of Thatcher Demko, Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and close to those of Stuart Skinner and Jeremy Swayman. As for the high danger percentage, again those right around his rate were Shesterkin, Demko, and UPL, and barely higher than Skinner, Swayman, and Sergei Bobrovsky. Vas' SV% of 0.811 in high danger situations was again right by that of Shesterkin and Skinner. In other words, Tampa might not he the same powerhouse it was in its heyday, but it is still seemingly good enough to be able to put Vas in a position to do as well as he had in the past.

Those things having been said, Vas' .903 even strength SV% was subpar. Yet his team hung him out to dry on several SHGs, hurting his SV% on the PK; but he was among the best in the NHL with a .884 SV% on the PP. Yes, an even strength SV% is of vital importance; however, that could have been weighted down by his poor start. And the time when a goalie truly has to shine, namely on the PK, he did just that. Also, Vas' SV% on one day's rest was a slightly better, at .902, than his .900 overall. That is important since Vas is a rare breed who does tend to play nearly every game except when his team has back-to-backs. The fact he was even somewhat better when he had only one day of rest is somewhat encouraging. Let's also not forget that even as he was having what, at the time, was his worst season in 2022-23, he not only was likely playing hurt but also still had his second best GSAA of his career, which suggests that a healthy Vas who's had a long offseason to rest, should bounce back.

Make no mistake – the heyday for Vas and Tampa is in the rearview mirror. But those rushing to declare Vas no longer elite might be premature. After all, his closest comparable, Henrik Lundqvist, shined into his 30s, and 2024-25 will be the first time since Vas started his downward slide that he's not been overworked, missed camp, or played hurt. As such, I think Vas' 2023-24 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 1.75, as I'd expect him to bounce back to a SV% of .910+, a GAA of 2.50 or less, and to be one of the league leaders in wins.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (54 starts, 27 Wins, 4 OTLs, 5 Shutouts, 2.57 GAA, .910 SV%)

Whether you call him UPL or 6K (referring to the three sets of double Ks in his name), he was supposed to step up and grab the starting reins for the Sabres before 2023-24; but his GAA was above 3.00 in all his AHL action, and he looked unimpressive when given 33 games to strut his stuff in 2022-23, such that most felt the Sabres would turn to Devon Levi for 2023-24. But Levi did not thrive, and UPL played well, such that the Sabres rewarded him with a five year, $23.75M contract, signifying the net is his for the time being. But will he be worth their vote of confidence and investment? Seemingly yes, as there looks to be a good chance of him being able to provide similar numbers as 2023-24 on a going forward basis.

With UPL poised to be the starter, it's great to see that by far his best save percentage came with one day rest, at 0.918. That shows he can be a netminder his team can put out there on a regular basis with confidence. Yet his 54 games played for 2023-24 was not only more than he had logged in parts of three prior NHL seasons combined, but the most since his final OHL campaign. Not surprisingly, UPL's Q4 numbers slipped as 2023-24 wore on. It's not clear if the Sabres want to run him into the ground such that he'd log as many start on one day rests, or, if they do so, whether his stats might suffer.

One concern is UPL had essentially one superb quarter of a 2.07 GAA and .924 SV%. Other than that however, his numbers were either at or below his season-long totals. That begs the question as to whether this was a stepping stone type of season or rather that he will be a goalie who goes through hot and cold spells. It might just be the latter, as although he had a quite impressive five shutouts in those 54 games, he also had seven Really Bad Starts. But his 63.0% Quality Start Percentage is quite encouraging, as that put him in a tie for third among the 20 goalies who played 50+ games last season. Those seven Really Bad Starts were only one more than the lowest of all those other 50+ game guys. In all, I'd say that's pretty darn impressive. The issue though is can he improve?

Looking at his GSAA, it was only in the middle of the pack among the 20 tenders who appeared in 50+ games, behind the likes of Petr Mrazek, Cam Talbot, and Charlie Lindgren, which suggests he played about as well as would be expected but not above and beyond. Without a higher GSAA, he might not be able to be counted upon to thrive as he did last season, although on the other hand Buffalo should not be worse, so it also stands to reason he could do as well as he did.

In terms of high danger performance, UPL had the 13th best HDSV% among the 41 goalies who logged 1500+ minutes last season. He certainly was tested, having to face the 10th most High Danger Shots Against. Those are good things, right? Unclear, as the only goalies who had ha higher HDSV% despite facing more High Danger Shots were Connor Hellebuyck and Ilya Sorokin, but also Petr Mrazek and Jordan Binnington. Is he poised to be a member of the elite first group, or the very not elite second? We can't say for sure.

One thing that stood out was of those 41 netminders, UPL was the one who let in goals from the highest average distance. Granted, he was at 23.14 feet and the middle of the pack was 20.00 and lowest was 18.70. But those who were in the top ten lowest include the likes of Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck and Jeremy Swayman, so this is a bit of a concern.

UPL also was in the bottom half among the 20 netminders who played in 50+ games when it came to even strength SV%. That is not a glaring issue, but it also might suggest he is not primed to show marked improvement. On the plus side, he was fourth best among the 20 in terms of SV% while his team was on the PK, although one could also say he has nowhere to go but down from there. Plus, he was fourth worst of the 20 in letting in shorthanded goals, so by the same token that too could only improve, likely for a wash.

Although UPL is far from a come from nowhere success, it was a surprise to many that he was able to find his footing, having not succeeded at the AHL or NHL level previously. Not only does it appear that he can replicate his success, but the Sabres are likely to put him in position to do so. Looking at the totality of all his metrics, I'd say UPL did about as well as one would expect him to do in 2024-25, making his 2023-24 JUST RIGHT, with a rating of 6.0.

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Questions for Mailbag 

I have enough questions for an off cycle mailbag. I might even be able to do two before the start of the season, so please send your questions. Just know that if they're about keepers I'd need to get them ASAP for there to be a chance I could answer them. To get questions to me, either send (1) a private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.