We will start today with some injury news.

There have been nervous fantasy managers around the league as far as goaltending is concerned. Thatcher Demko's season out in Vancouver is still very muddled, Jeremy Swayman has yet to sign with Boston, and now another quick update on New York Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin:

No Sorokin. #Isles

— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) September 25, 2024

Sorokin underwent back surgery in the offseason and that he's not in camp right now is worrisome. Between Sorokin, Demko, and Swayman, there are question marks around what could be three of the top five fantasy goalies, at least if everyone was healthy:

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Auston Matthews was not at practice yesterday but the team said it was a maintenance day so hopefully he just needs a bit of time off and he will be good to go.

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Some good news on the injury recovery front for Brad Marchand:

Marchand in a full participation jersey

— steve conroy (@conroyherald) September 25, 2024

Marchand had multiple offseason surgeries but looks to be good to go. He is coming off a 29-goal, 67-point season where he sustained those multiple injuries. There may be 70 points in the offing again.

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Artemi Panarin was announced as day-to-day:

Artemi Panarin is just day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Does not appear to be serious at all. #NYR

— Remy Mastey (@MasteyRemy) September 25, 2024

Hopefully he's back and skating by the weekend. We will see.

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Staying with New York, Mastey also reported that defenceman Ryan Lindgren is week-to-week with an injury. Someone that wasn't expected to make the roster now has a chance to break camp, and be in the lineup, for the start of the season.

Also, Filip Chytil was at practice on Wednesday, so hopefully no worse for the wear after that injury scare on Tuesday night.

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Nick Bjugstad is not expected to be ready for the start of Utah's regular season, per Craig Morgan.

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Staying with Utah, Nick Schmaltz was not at practice despite a mostly full roster skating together:

Some jumbled lines this morning:

Keller-Hayton-Guenther
Maccelli-Kerfoot-Crouse
Carcone-Cooley-Doan
O'Brien-McBain-Agozzino
Yamamoto-Bueadoin-Stenlund

Don't see Nick Schmaltz out there.

— Belle Fraser (@bellefraser1) September 25, 2024

Something to keep an eye on there. Taking Dylan Guenther off Logan Cooley's line really does not leave much for Cooley to play with.

Also of note from that practice, Cooley was on the second PP unit, even with Schmaltz missing.

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It is interesting that Tomas Hertl keeps centering what would be the third line for Vegas, having Nicolas Roy and Alex Holtz as his flanks. I wonder how long that keeps up.

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Drew Doughty was injured in the first period of Los Angeles's preseason game on Thursday night. It looked like he got his left leg kind of caught under him on a crash into the boards. He left the game and did not return, so this is something to follow – it could be anywhere from a tweak where he's out a couple of days to a broken bone that keeps him out for months.

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Detroit had a preseason game against Chicago last night and it's notable that they ran Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond together both at 5-on-5 and on the power play. It was a lineup with Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko, so nothing is guaranteed yet, but last season, that DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond trio scored 4.5 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. They did it while shooting 13%, which is too high, but even 11% would have them scoring goals at an elite rate. Lines rarely stay together all season, but it's a big note from that squad, and we'll talk about Detroit later in these Ramblings.

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My forward point and shot projections were finished earlier this week and I started to discuss them in Tuesday's Ramblings. In today's Ramblings, let's go through some more names to see where some players stack up. A reminder of some caveats:

• Rookies are not included yet. Those will be added once the defencemen are done.
• All players are projected for 82 games played.
• Assumptions are made on player roles both at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill. Significant changes in role can (and usually do) have a Zdena Chara-sized impact on a player's fantasy outlook.
• Age adjustments are not included yet and will be included when rookies are added.

With the necessary jawing out of the way, let's get to some more projections.

Anaheim Ducks Growth…?

Curiosity abounds about the Anaheim Ducks given their forwards (namely Trevor Zegras) are healthy, Cutter Gauthier is in his rookie season, Leo Carlsson has a year under his belt, and Mason McTavish is now going into his third full campaign. It was surprising, then, to see just two Ducks forwards project for over 60 points:

My guess is once some age adjustments are made – each of Zegras, McTavish, and Carlsson are under 24 years old – then these will come up a bit, but the high end would likely max out at 70 points.

The big culprit is the power play. Anaheim was in the bottom-third of the league in power plays per game each of the last two seasons and neither season saw a Ducks forward that is on the 2024-25 roster finish inside the top-third of regular power play forwards in the league by on-ice goal rate. In other words, recent seasons have seen the Ducks draw few power plays and score few goals on the power plays they do get. An average top PP unit with below-average power play opportunities would make it hard to come by power play points, and thus cap their total production upside. If the forwards want to have improved point totals, their penalty-drawing and power play efficiency need to improve a lot.

Detroit's Top Wingers

It stuck out a bit that both Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond projected a bit similarly. It is funny, in a way, because Raymond's skill set does mirror Kane's in one way: Raymond has shown the ability to drive goals at a rate far higher than his expected goals rate, which is something Kane was notorious for in his prime, per Evolving Hockey. This is where their outlooks sit for 2024-25:

When age adjustments are made, Raymond will improve a bit and Kane will decline a bit, so Raymond will be likely around a point per game and Kane closer to ~75 points.

The big reason here is power play usage. No Detroit forward skated 60% of the team's power play time last season and the assumption is this season will see the top unit over 60%. A big reason is Daniel Sprong, David Perron, and Robby Fabbri are all with new teams and the only addition was Vladimir Tarasenko. There just isn't enough talent to really justify splitting into two even-ish units again, so the assumption is a more heavily-used top unit. If that doesn't happen, it cuts about a half-dozen points off each player's total, so power play usage is important.

Mathew Barzal

A lot of offseason fantasy discussion has revolved around the New York Islanders, their top line, and their new coach Patrick Roy. Here is what I have for Mathew Barzal in the 2024-25 season:

His goal scoring remains the same from 2023-24 but with a few more assists on an 82-game basis. Barzal reaching 3.0 shots per game last season was great to see but he still is a very inefficient shooter; his last three seasons have averaged 9.6% finishing, and he's never had a season of 13% shooting in his career. Heck, Bowen Byram shot 13.1% in 2023-24, so there was a defenceman last year who had a better shooting percentage than Barzal has ever had.

To be sure, Barzal has 90-point potential this season if he can finish a few more of his shots than normal. That may be worth taking a chance on in fantasy drafts, but he is going around the 50^th pick overall in some drafts and doesn't bring a lot in the way of peripherals outside of his shots. There is upside here, but fantasy drafters will have to pay for that privilege.

Utah's Young Stars

Two names that seem to be gaining a bit of steam in this fantasy draft season are Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley. My last few drafts have seen Guenther go around the 125^th pick overall with Cooley 5-6 rounds later. Here is where my fantasy projections land for these two:

I looked at the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide – available here in the Dobber Shop – and he was even more bullish on Guenther with 30 goals in 75 games, or about 33 in a full season. He is less bullish on Cooley with 54 points in 80 games, but it's not far off.

My projections are assuming the most-used top PP unit is Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Guenther, and Cooley. It seems likely the first three names are locks, but Cooley's spot is not assured. If he floats between the first and second unit in favour of other players, this projection is probably closer to 55 points, so I see where Dobber is coming from.

Quinton Byfield

One player often discussed in these Ramblings in the offseason was Byfield. In a recent Ramblings, I talked about how, gauging by my even strength projection, Byfield's overall point projection would top at 70 points. When all is said and done, that guess wasn't very far off:

Here is the problem: training camp is painting a different picture. So far, Byfield has lined up on what could be called either the third line or the 2B in a 2A/2B situation. He has also lined up on the team's second power play unit. Last season, Philip Danault and Pierre-Luc Dubois were in that situation and finished at 18:01 and 15:42 in TOI per game, respectively. The assumption in my projections was that Byfield would have one of the highest usage rates among the team's forwards, flirting with 19 minutes overall. If he has second line-ish usage at even strength, and second PP unit status, the projection drops to 60 points (maybe a bit higher once age-adjustments are made).

We will have to keep an eye on the preseason. Usage matters a lot in the NHL and if Los Angeles doesn't get away from their current configurations, it is a big cooler on what could be a breakout season from Byfield. 

Minnesota's Top Wingers

The last discussion today is on Minnesota's top two wingers because they, like Byfield, have a wide range of outcomes based on usage. The issue isn't necessarily their usage, but the usage of players around them. Projections currently have career seasons for both Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy:

This is timely given the news that Matt Boldy will likely miss at least the rest of training camp and is not assured to start the season on time. Also, thus far in training camp, Kaprizov has not had Joel Eriksson Ek as his centre. Over the last two seasons, Minnesota has very, very high shot, expected goal, and goal rates with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek on the ice – those numbers all drop with Ryan Hartman as the centre instead. Thus far in training camp, it is Hartman next to Kaprizov with Eriksson Ek on the second line. It won't stay this way all season, but there is a wide gap between Eriksson Ek and the rest of the team's centres, and that matters for Kaprizov's upside.

We need to pay attention here. It isn't as if Kaprizov will have a poor season with Hartman as his usual centre, but it may be the difference between a 47-goal, 97-point season and a 54-goal, 108-point season. When we're talking about a first-round fantasy pick, those edges matter a lot.