2011-12

0.31 (C.W.)

0.15 (M.R.)

0.63 (C.W.)

1.03 (M.R.)

0.31 (C.W.)

0.73 (M.R.)

1.67 (C.W.)

1.96 (M.R.)

0.17 (C.W.)

0.14 (M.R.)

2010-11

0.20 (C.W.)

0.46 (C.W.)

0.29 (C.W.)

1.23 (C.W.)

0.07 (C.W.)

Wilson's numbers are subpar. He's never once averaged one PIM per three games, and last season was the first where his combined Hits and Blocked Shots per game added up to one. His Shots totals also are very poor, with his 1.04 per game in 2012-13 making me wonder if his 19 points in 25 games was influenced by luck that's unlikely to recur. We'll look at that below.

Read has been consistent in most categories, faring even worse than Wilson in PIM, but averaging right near one Hit per game and an impressive – for a forward – three Blocked Shots per four games played. And his Shots totals for his two full seasons were right at two per game.

PP scoring was eye opening for both players. With Wilson, his output was far and away the highest in 2012-13, making it even more probable that luck helped bolster his stats that year. Read fared well in his rookie season, but since then has been in freefall, culminating in just two PP points during all of 2013-14. We'll also have to focus below on whether Read had unusually poor luck on the PP over the course of the past two seasons.

Luck-Based Metrics

This data definitely helps put together some of the pieces to the puzzle that is Wilson's 2012-13 season, as he had astoundingly high IPP numbers and personal shooting percentage. In terms of IPP, his 100% 5×4 IPP was markedly higher than the 50-60% figure in the other three seasons, as was his 84.6% 5×5 IPP versus the 66% average in those other seasons. In a similar vein, his 26.9% shooting % in 2012-13 was more than double the 12.9% figure from the rest of his career, which meant that his goal total was twice what it likely should've been.

Consider this – if his IPP and personal shooting % in 2012-13 were comparable to other years, then his point total would've been perhaps as small as 10 in 25 games, which is a 33 point full season pace. And although that seems very low, keep in mind that excluding 2012-13 Wilson has 117 points in 266 games, which is only a 36 point full season pace.

And as if that wasn't bad enough, in compiling 19 points in 25 games in 2012-13, Wilson had a four point game, a three point game, and three two point games, leading to those 19 points coming in just 11 games. The fact that he's never approached those kinds of offensive outbursts in other seasons (he has just one other four point game and three other three pointers in his other 266 games) further suggests 2012-13 was an aberration.

In contrast, Read's numbers paint a picture of someone who, if anything, has been more of a victim of unsustainable bad luck than good on the PP. In particular, his 5×4 IPP over the past two seasons is more in line with that of a defenseman than a forward.

And although Read's 5×5 IPP is fairly high, it's also been consistently high, which suggests he should be able to sustain that pace going forward. Moreover, his PDO figures aren't particularly remarkable given his similar point pace each season.

Who Wins?

Wilson owners should be quite concerned, as the data portrays him as a 35-40 point player who hit a lightning in a bottle in 2012-13. But we also have to keep in mind that the Nashville top six has been completely revamped in the offseason. And while that doesn't mean Wilson's past data should be tossed out the window entirely, he could end up going along for the joyride if the new blood in Nashville helps ramp up its top six, and Wilson's points along with it.

Read's issue is entirely different in that he's stuck being a shorthanded workhorse and power play afterthought. The significant SH duty not only saddles him with unproductive Ice Time but also wears a player down in general, as evidenced by only one other player in the top 30 in SH Ice Time per game for forwards even managing to score 40+ points in 2013-14. And although Read appears to have been a victim of unsustainably bad luck on the PP, even if that was to improve his PP Ice Time is still lower than it was while he was a rookie, so the benefit to his points total likely would be nominal.

In the end, for non-cap leagues the choice should be Read if Hits and/or Blocked Shots are counted, as Wilson's output in those areas is woeful. But in non-cap points-only leagues, it might boil down to opting for the lesser of two evils, so to speak. With Read, there's little downside given his consistency; but at the same time it's very hard to picture him surpassing 50-55 points. On the other hand, Wilson has far more risk of a 35-40 point season given his past data, although the wild card is if he's paired with the right linemates he could easily see his totals climb to 45, 50, or perhaps even 55 points.

In the end, for non-cap points leagues I'd go with the surer thing, which in this case is Read, since being on a line with talented players doesn't automatically mean Wilson would see his points total spike up.