Real or Imagined – Forwards Pt.2 (2014)

Doran Libin

2014-12-15

AnzeKopitar

Libin polishes off his ‘real or imagined’ series. Buy, sell or hold? The forwards in the West…

Team dynamics can be as important to judging a player's performance as understanding the statistics he produces. It is not just who a player lines up with but how that player is used. The make-up of a roster or a specific line influences how players are used in terms of role or where they start the majority of their shifts. This is important as starting with the puck in the offensive zone as opposed to the defensive zone makes it easier to generate offensive chances. As for a player's roles it's a lot easier to score when the primary responsibility is not to keep the other team from scoring.

Waive

Marleau

19:04

3:05

100

Hold

McGinn

11:09

0:11

Waive

Nieto

15:32

1:25

Gamble

Pavelski

19:52

2:57

116

Hold

Scott

7:01

0:00

Waive

Sheppard

13:38

0:20

Sell

Thornton

18:48

3:01

Hold

Wingels

16:53

1:29

Hold

Much like Keyser Soze the San Jose rebuild was a fictional construct in one man's mind. The rebuild that never was resulted in a clearly defined top six in San Jose with the usual suspects getting top power play minutes and the most ice time. This is great news if you own Thornton or Marleau but has worked out well for almost everybody in the top six. Each of the four Sharks averaging close to a point per game has reasonable percentages and there is no reason to think they should not be able to maintain their current respective production. All four receive around three minutes of power play time on a unit that clicks 24% of the time.

Tomas Hertl and Tommy Wingels are the two members of the top six that miss out on power play time. While Matt Nieto is the lone member of the bottom six to receive meaningful power play time. Hertl and Wingels have almost identical numbers, the difference being that Wingels takes an extra shot per game, hence the extra points. Wingels also has a better ES shooting percentage. While Wingels' individual shooting percentage is a little high both he and Hertl have sustainable numbers. Matt Nieto makes for a good gamble as he the Sharks gets more shots when he is on the ice than any other forward. Nieto will be given the first shot whenever a top six spot opens up and has shown that he is capable of handling that role.

St Louis

	Position	Games	Points	Time on Ice (TOI)	PP TOI	Shots on Goal (SOG)	Status
Backes	RW	28	13	18:18	2:23	68	Buy-Low
Berglund	C	28	8	16:01	1:17	57	Sell
Lapierre	C	29	7	10:19	0:03	30	Waive
Lehtera	C	28	25	17:30	2:33	51	Sell-High
Lindstrom	C	24	6	11:44	1:15	30	Waive
Oshie	C	22	12	18:51	2:27	54	Buy-Low
Ott	C	28	5	12:44	0:25	13	Waive
Paajarvi	LW	9	1	9:50	0:21	9	Waive
Porter	LW	10	2	8:35	0:05	12	Waive
Reaves	RW	28	5	7:12	0:02	16	Waive
Schwartz	C	29	24	18:44	2:40	75	Hold
Stastny	C	21	12	16:01	2:40	45	Buy-Low
Steen	LW	27	19	20:47	3:33	91	Hold/Buy
Tarasenko	RW	29	32	18:22	2:52	109	Sell-High

The new big line in St Louis is the 'STL' but only two of the three have obscene numbers. The only way Terasenko and Lehtera are going to be able to sustain ES on-ice shooting percentages of 12% is if they really do have ESP. That is only one half of the equation as Lehtera is scoring on 14% of his shots at even-strength while Terasenko is over 17%. Assuming Terasenko is an elite shooter that is an extra five goals over a reasonable shooting percentage of 12%. Lehtera's shooting percentage is even less sustainable as his average of under two shots per game shows little evidence that he is an elite shooter. Expect something more along the lines of a 70 point pace for Terasenko and 60-65 for Lehtera. The most promising factor working in favour of the 'STL' line continuing its current pace is the easier minutes they receive due to their inflated offensive zone starts.

With the 'STL' line playing primarily in the offensive zone, someone else has to take the defensive zone starts. Backes, Oshie and Steen end up playing those tougher minutes and their numbers have suffered as a result. Every St Louis forward outside of the 'STL' line has an underwhelming ES on-ice shooting percentage, with only Oshie managing an ES on-ice shooting percentage over 7%. Even with the tougher zone starts these numbers are sure to rebound and as the 'STL' line falls off the rest of the St Louis forwards should be ready to pick up the slack. Part of the problem for St Louis may be the lack of consistency outside of the 'STL' line. Stastny, Backes, Steen and Oshie play on constantly changing lines.

Paul Stastny has been a major disappointment for the Blues. He is receiving similar zone starts to the 'STL' line but against lesser competition while putting up none of the production at even-strength despite driving possession at a similar rate. The glaring issue for Stastny, and the factor that may be keeping Hitchcock from trusting him, is that the Blues give up the most shots when he is on the ice. When Stastny is on the ice the Blues give up 33 shots per 60 minutes at even-strength, putting him in the company of Steve Ott, Ryan Reaves and Max Lapierre. That does not sound like the kind of excitement the Blues were hoping for when they signed him to a four year, $28 million deal.

Vancouver

	Position	Games	Points	Time on Ice (TOI)	PP TOI	Shots on Goal (SOG)	Status
Bonino	C	30	20	17:01	1:54	65	Hold/Buy
Burrows	RW	25	12	15:35	1:50	49	Hold
Dorsett	RW	28	10	10:43	0:03	36	Waive
Hansen	RW	30	13	12:21	0:26	44	Sell
Higgins	LW	30	15	16:03	1:50	72	Hold
Horvat	C	17	5	9:58	0:02	14	Waive
Kassian	RW	17	5	12:25	0:30	25	Waive
Matthias	C	28	11	12:47	0:04	54	Waive
Richardson	RW	30	15	14:53	0:06	51	Sell
D Sedin	LW	30	26	19:07	3:08	75	Hold
H Sedin	C	30	26	19:04	3:04	32	Hold
Vey	RW	28	13	13:53	2:46	25	Sell
Vrbata	RW	28	23	17:19	2:58	103	Hold

When the Canucks were at their best in 2011 the Sedins got great zone starts against lesser competition while Kesler took the tough competition and Malhotra took the defensive zone starts. This year's Canucks are not as good but the usage chart looks pretty familiar. The results look familiar too as the Sedins and Vrbata put up great offensive numbers with stellar support from a potent second line. The third line as a result of their zone starts and lack of talent are not worth owning but they make the top two lines all the more valuable. Unfortunately by interchangeably slotting Kassian and Vey onto the third line their respective fantasy values have been all but completely squandered.

The Sedins and Vrbata are putting up numbers but there is room for improvement. They only producee 30 shots per 60 minutes at even strength which is only average but they complement those numbers by only giving up 25 shots per 60 minutes. Each of the three has an on-ice ES shooting percentage well under 7% so there is reason to believe that they could reach point per game levels. However, Vrbata and Henrik both have individual shooting percentages over 10% and the Canucks defense would have trouble scoring against a peewee team, so temper your optimism.

The second line is putting up the more impressive shot numbers as they average over 36 shots per 60 minutes at even strength. While the second line is dominating it is also receiving more than its share of 'puck luck' as each member of the line has an ES on-ice shooting percentage over 9% and an individual shooting percentage over 10%. As long as this line is generating shots at an elite level they will all be worth holding on to even as regression takes a bite out of their numbers.

Winnipeg

	Position	Games	Points	Time on Ice (TOI)	PP TOI	Shots on Goal (SOG)	Status
Byfuglien	RW	31	16	20:29	3:41	106	Hold/Buy
Frolik	RW	31	14	15:51	1:07	74	Sell
Galiardi	LW	19	0	10:36	0:06	17	Waive
Halischuk	RW	19	2	7:35	0:00	20	Waive
Kane	LW	21	10	19:31	2:11	67	Buy-Low
Ladd	LW	31	23	19:46	2:47	96	Hold
Little	C	31	21	19:49	2:44	57	Hold
Lowry	LW	30	7	12:25	0:16	41	Waive
Perreault	C	30	12	16:14	2:34	57	Hold/Buy-Low
Scheifele	C	31	13	18:31	2:22	52	Hold/Buy-Low
Slater	C	31	1	8:24	0:2	16	Waive
Thorburn	RW	30	1	6:02	0:04	21	Waive
Wheeler	RW	31	22	19:19	2:48	89	Hold

Since mid-November Dustin Byfuglien has been the fantasy beast we all expected at the start of the year. He is not as valuable as a forward as he was as a defenseman but he has been a revelation from the shadow we witnessed at the beginning of the season. Part of the problem for Byfuglien is that when the Jets were healthy he started the year skating on a lackluster third line. It was only the injuries that bumped him up the lineup and then back onto defense. If he ends up back on the third line Byfuglien owners will be back to living and dying by his power play production.

If Byfuglien is a source of upheaval for the Jets the line of Ladd, Little and Wheeler is a source of stability. Over the last ten games they have been together 26% of the time at even-strength, while no other line has been together even 10% of the time. Little and Ladd are both scoring at sustainable rates with very high ES shooting percentages of 27 and 14 percent respectively. Even with those massive shooting percentages their on-ice shooting percentages are very sustainable. Expect the Jets top line to tick along like a Swiss watch.

Whoever ends up on the second line for this Jets team will get a boost in production. The five forwards who have seen some time on the second line include Perreault, Scheifele, Byfuglien, Kane and Frolik. Scheifele and Kane seem to have spots sewn up on the second line. Frolik would be a good bet to end up there as well as Maurice has often played him on a scoring line. Of the five, Scheifele, Frolik and Perreault are the two with numbers that suggest a coming improvement in production as both have ES on-ice and individual shooting percentages under 7%. Frolik, however does not get the power play time that Scheifele and Perreault do and as such may not get as big a bump from some regression.

Thanks for reading the Real or Imagined series.

Real or Imagined – Forwards (2014)
Real or Imagined – Defensemen (2014)
Real or Imagined – Goalies (2014)
Eastern Conference – Real or Imagined – Forwards (2014)