Looking back at February 2009 and Jeff Carter’s ephemeral stint on the billboard top 20 list.

When I think about one-hit wonders the song that always comes to mind is “Butterfly” by Crazy Town. If you haven’t heard it give a listen. It’s pretty damn catchy. Good luck trying NOT to hum that next time you’re taking a shower.

You’d think that the band who put this song together would be able to release at least one more hit. They did it once, why not again? Not so much. Looking through their song list (caveat being I’m no music aficionado) there is nothing that seems remotely mainstream.

Why am I talking about one-hit wonders?

Because there really isn’t a better way to describe Jeff Carter’s fantasy career. Drafted 11th overall in 2003 he was always billed as a potentially elite forward. Although few of us predicted an outburst like the one in 2008-09 when he posted 46 goals, 84 points, 68 penalty minutes, and 342 shots for a talented Flyers team.

He was in his early twenties. A decade of fantasy prominence standing before him. Good luck drafting him in the fall of 2009.

Looking back at his Dobber Ranking in February of 2009 he was quickly moving up the list. From 43rd in December of 2008, all the way to 20th by February. It was a good time to be a Jeff Carter owner.

Below are the top 50 from that month:

It’s easy now to look at that season as a complete outlier. Carter has never again broken 70 points. His highest penalty minute total was 44, this past season. His shot totals, while still terrific (240 to 260) are no longer among the game’s elite.

Amazingly, he’s only 29 years old. If you were sitting with him on your keeper league roster five years ago you would have anticipated these to be the final years of his prime. A proven 40 goal scorer and obvious early round pick in virtually all formats.

Where did things fall apart? How did he go from singing lead with the Beatles to playing back-up drums for Crazy Town?

Looking back there are a couple warning signs, although nothing that absolutely JUMPED OFF THE PAGE in an all caps sort of way. He posted a shooting percentage of 13.4%. High, most certainly, but not markedly different than his career number of 11.4%. The core issue likely lies with Philadelphia as a team. That year they had the fifth most goals per game (3.17) and a power play that was scoring at a rate of 22.5% (sixth in the league). Compare that with Los Angeles today – 2.42 and 15.1% – and it becomes clear these are two very different squads. Realistically there are far less goals for Carter to be a part of today than there was back in 2009. This could be a combination of physical decline, coaching tactics, line-mates…etc. It’s difficult to understand exactly how much of a factor each issue was.

If we’re trying to learn something from this piece (outside of the fact Butterfly is a fantastic song) it’s that we should tread carefully with young players who enjoy career best years while riding an elite offence and strong shooting percentage. To a much lesser extent (Columbus wasn’t nearly as good offensively) this MIGHT apply to someone like Ryan Johansen. A guy upon which great expectations are being placed.

Recent posts from Darren:

Looking Back…at February 2009

Looking Back…at April 2009