October 19, 2014

Thomas Drance

2014-10-19

Thoughs on the 11 games, sterling performances from Stamkos and Subban, and injures to Hedman, Stastny.

 

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It was a busy Saturday night of NHL hockey – is there any other type – with 22 teams in action. Before we get to the games themselves, let’s breakdown the latest on a pair of injuries, which could have wide ranging fantasy impact. 

 

The first major injury was to Victor Hedman, who blocked a shot with his right-hand and left Tampa Bay’s game in Vancouver, B.C. Hedman is reportedly heading back to Tampa Bay for further evaluation, which means he’ll miss at least the next four games and surely won’t play again before Tampa hosts the Phoenix Coyotes on October 28.

 

This is a tough loss for Hedman owners, who likely were feeling as if they had a major steal on their hands with the way Hedman was producing points in the first 10 days of the season.

 

In Hedman’s absence look for Jason Garrison to see more power-play time, where his heavy left-handed shot could do some damage. Eric Brewer, who played over nine minutes in the third period on Saturday, will probably be the biggest beneficiary at evens; and could at least give you some value in deeper leagues that count hits, blocks and +/-.

 

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Meanwhile St. Louis Blues center Paul Stastny left the arena in a sling on Saturday, although all Blues coach Ken Hitchcock would cop to postgame is that Stastny is “day-to-day” with an “upper body injury” (presumably shoulder), and will at the very least miss the Blues’ game on Sunday against the Anaheim Ducks. 

 

My two cents, and granted I’m not a doctor, but the sling suggests to me that “day-to-day” is an extraordinarily optimistic prognosis. I guess it could be a very minor shoulder sprain and the sling is precautionary? Even in that case, I’d expect Stastny to spend roughly a week resting before being cleared for contact again.

 

This is a big blow for the Blues, and obviously for Stastny fantasy owners. Stastny has been playing a second-line center role for the Blues, but if he’s out for any extended period of time I’d expect Patrik Berglund to bump back to the middle (take note GMs who play in FOW leagues), which takes him off of a line with David Backes and T.J. Oshie.

 

Perhaps Alexander Steen will be reunited with his line-mates from last season, while Berglund centers Tarasenko and Schwartz or Lindstrom? I’d track Blues line-combos closely over the next few days,  as well as Stastny’s prognosis, because there could be some value as the Blues juggle their lines in the wake of Stastny’s injury.

 

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I just want to take a minute here to plug some of the fantasy writing being done by my extraordinarily knowledgable and dedicated colleague Ian McLaren over at theScore. Ian, who won theScore’s office fantasy hockey league last season and thus won the right to be our designated fantasy guru, is currently writing three fantasy hockey columns a week – including a look at the waiver wire every Sunday. 

 

Here’s the first installment of his new WireTap series. I highly recommend you keep up with his stuff, and follow him on twitter here.  

 

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Let’s start our recaps of Saturday night’s action in Buffalo, where the Boston Bruins shellacked the Buffalo Sabres in a leisurely fashion. The Bruins didn’t seem to break a sweat, as the posture of goaltender Niklas Svedberg – who managed his first career NHL shutout – makes clear.

 

In terms of standout performances, Chara gave owners seven shots and a goal from the blue-line, which is pretty great.

 

Meanwhile Simon Gagne, in his first game on the ring alongside David Krejci and Milan Lucic, was a dud from a fantasy perspective and recorded no shots. Luckily he Corsi’d at a 65+ percent rate, so maybe he’ll get another look in that spot.

 

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P.K. Subban is an absolute beast, and probably the most electric player in the game at the moment. 

 

Subban scored a couple of goals in Saturday’s 3-2 Montreal Canadiens victory over the Colorado Avalanche and both were goals of the “wow” variety. His power-play one-timer was pretty cool, but standard fare for a talent as special as Subban. His second goal though, the eventual game winner, was absolute insanity. I know it’s October, but this individual effort may stand up as the goal of the year:

 

 

On the night Subban finished with a two goal, three shot, 1 PPP, two hit evening – excellent production from a defensive slot. 

 

His teammate Alex Galchenyuk also had a nice outing fantasy wise, taking five shots and scoring a goal and an assist (the latter a PPP). Pacioretty managed seven shots, but was snake bit and couldn’t beat third-stringer Calvin Pickard.

 

On the Avalanche side of the ledger, Jarome Iginla had a four shot, four hit evening with an assist; while Matt Duchene went Patric Hornqvist on the Avalanche – taking 10 shots and scoring a goal in a losing effort.

 

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In Ottawa, the Senators defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-2, and received stellar goaltending from Robin Lehner – who stopped 38 of 40 shots in the victory. 

 

Aside from Lehner, Erik Karlsson had an excellent fantasy night with a goal, seven shots and a couple of hits. Matt Hoffman also had a solid fantasy outing, though his limited usage still restrains his projectable value somewhat (he played just 12.5 minutes on Saturday). 

 

Columbus netminder Curtis McElhinney was injured in this one, so Sergei Bobrovsky may be in for a heavy workload in the coming weeks. Tim Erixon logged nearly 22 minutes on Saturday, but with Ryan Murray nearing a return, I wouldn’t expect that to continue. Anyway Erixon didn’t do much with his extended burn on Saturday anyway (fantasy-wise at least).

 

In terms of the bigger Blue Jackets names, Scott Hartnell had an assist (his fourth), while pitching in 2 PIMs, 4 shots, and three hits. Ryan Johansen continued to do Ryan Johansen things with an assist, five shots and two hits; and Cam Atkinson continued to be a stellar voluem shooter with five shots (though he returned to last years form with zero points and a -1).

 

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The Maple Leafs played a bit of a dull game against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday, which Detroit ultimately won when Henrik Zetterberg scored late in overtime. Aside from Zetterberg – who had a monster fantasy weekend beating up on the Maple Leafs – there wasn’t much in the way of offense, so most players’ fantasy contributions were peripheral.

 

Roman Polak continues to rack up hits (he had eight on Saturday), while Jake Gardiner continues to be a significant fantasy bust (he’s yet to record his first shot on goal this season). Tomas Tatar took six shots on net and added a couple of hits, which is pretty decent, while Nyquist cooled off and only managed a shot.

 

Nyquist’s gaudy goal scoring and obviously skill level aside, his insane play over the past 8 months – and in particular his goal scoring production – still strikes me as unsustainable unless his shot rate ticks up going forward…

 

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The San Jose Sharks humbled the New Jersey Devils with a 4-2 victory. Eric Gelinas – the would be fantasy darling, if only he played more often – had a quiet game boxscore-wise, and had a series of poor defensive plays that could result in him being a healthy scratch in the near future. That’s the bad news.

 

The good news is that Damon Severson keeps playing first pairing minutes and is still unowned in 84 percent of fantasy leagues, and John Merrill added his second assist of the season and played steadier hockey than his partner.

 

Aside from the defense, Mike Cammalleri had a ho hum seven shot evening and Adam Henrique added five SOGs and a goal.

 

For San Jose Logan Couture delivered with a three point night (a goal and two assists), 2 PPPs, while also contributing four shots on goal. Late-round fantasy steal Tommy Wingels finished the game a minus two but still took five shots and added a couple of hits as well. 

 

Meanwhile Brent Burns continues to be misused as a defenseman and while he did record an assist on Saturday, the lack of hits and pedestrian shot rate just makes me sad. He was such a unique fantasy asset a year ago…

 

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Elite volume shooter Patric Hornqvist is absolutely going to lead the league in shot rate this season, of this I have no doubt. The rugged Swedish forward destroyed fantasy wise on Saturday, taking 12 shots on goal (!?!?!) while scoring twice, assisting once, and racking up 2 PPP. On a line with Crosby and playing in a net front role on one of the league’s most feared power play units, Hornqvist is a lock to be a top-20 fantasy player this season (assuming you play in a league that counts G,A,PPP,+/-,SOG,Hits).

 

Aside from Hornqvist’s otherwordly boxscore, Johnny Boychuk continues to be pretty damn amazing with a six shots, six hits line on a night in which he (finally) didn’t score. Man I misjudged his value post-Islanders trade. I’m now convinced that he’s about to go full metal 2011-12 Jason Garrison – and see his power play ice time and shooting percentage spike in a contract year. I wish I’d drafted him.

 

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The Washington Capitals outlasted the Florida Panthers with a 2-1 shootout victory on Saturday. The most notable thing, aside fromt he play of backups Al Montoya and Justin Peters – both of whom were excellent – was the lack of Alex Ovechkin shots.

Ovechkin managed just two shots on goal on Saturday, probably because Honrqvist took the rest of them. Luckily, because Ovechkin is the best fantasy player of my lifetime, he threw seven hits to make it up to those of us lucky enough to have picked in the top-3.

 

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I don’t even know how to describe the game between the Dallas Stars and the Philadelphia Flyers without using language that Dobber would probably call “swearing” and maybe fire me for. It was a defensive cluster cuss to be sure.

 

I guess that’s what we should expect from two teams with excellent forward groups and no top of the lineup defenseman to speak of.

 

Anyway Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza both had four point nights for the Stars, and really had oddly similar lines (both had 2 PPPs, both took four shots on goal), and defenseman Trevor Daley scored twice for the Stars. He’s off to a pretty solid offensive start to the season.

 

For the Flyers Claude Giroux led the way, scoring the overtime winner and amassing two points and six shots (plus a PPP). Jakub Voracek also managed a goal, two assists and three points, while continuing to avoid getting credit outside of Philadelphia for being a bona fide top of the roster playmaker. Some nice peripherals for Brayden Schenn who scored a goal and added five shots and two hits; and Mark Streit had a really nice fantasy game with two assists and five shots from a blue-line slot.

 

The next time these teams meet (in March), just don’t start Mason or Lehtonen if you own them.

 

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The Chicago Blackhawks fed the Nashville Predators for 63 minutes, but couldn’t put Peter Laviolette’s “undefeated in regulation” squad away until Jonathan Toews scored in a 3-on-4 shorthanded situation in overtime. 

 

The game ended 2-1, which coaches love and fantasy general managers hate the most, but Patrick Sharp still had a decent game (five shots, three hits); as did Shea Weber for the Predators (three shots, two hits, 1 PPP, 1 goal). Filip Forsberg also continued to impress and took a team high four shots despite seeing under 12 minutes at evens.

 

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So Mike Smith is having a nightmare start to the campaign and got lit up again on Saturday night, allowing six goals against on 36 shots in a blowout Phoenix Coyotes 6-1 loss to the St. Louis Blues.

 

Shane Doan was a bright spot for the Coyotes, as he managed an assist (a PPP), seven shots and a hit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson had a decent fantasy outing (an assist, three shots, three hits). Otherwise no one on the ‘Yotes is going to be too happy with their performance, and it hurts that Martin Hanzal went down with an injury too…

 

There’s more to be positive about on the Blues side of the ledger, obviously. Let’s start with Jaden Schwartz who recorded a hat-trick, 3 PPPs, an assist, and took seven shots on net (also two hits). That was an absurd outing obviously, though Vladimir Tarasenko had a nice game too (3 assists, +2, seven shots, 2 PPPs). 

 

Jake Allen won his first game of the year, to the enormous relief of those owners who drafted him and have been sweating while Brian Elliott starts game after game.

 

Finally David Backes did the usual (one goal, one assist, four shots, three hits), and Jori Lehtera got on the board in a major way with a three point night. Lehtera may be seeing a lot more ice if Stastny misses any extended period of time, so his production bears watching. Can he produce against goalies that aren’t Mike Smith?

 

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Finally Ben Bishop was dominant for the Tampa Bay Lightning stopping 30 of 32 shots faced in a 4-2 Lightning victory over the Vancouver Canucks.  Stamkos was also absurdly good as he managed two goals, an assist, 1 PPP, five shots, a +2 rating and a hit. No surprise there.

 

For the Canucks Radim Vrbata finally didn’t score, but he had his opportunities and took five shots. Nick Bonino took four and recorded an assist, and had a strong two-way game – easily his best as a Canuck.

 

In terms of deployment notes worth watching, Kevin Bieksa is on the Canucks’ top power-play unit instead of Alex Edler – so he could do a lot better in PPP than he has in the past if he keeps that job. If the Canucks are smart though they’ll put Edler back into that slot, since he’s the much more productive offensive player. He had a two point night with four shots on goal on Saturday for good measure. 

 

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That’s it from me – enjoy your Sunday, make sure to watch some football, and tune in again next week! Thanks for reading.

 

Thomas Drance is a news editor at theScore

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 25 - 19:11 T.B vs COL
Nov 25 - 19:11 NYR vs STL
Nov 25 - 19:11 CAR vs DAL
Nov 25 - 19:11 FLA vs WSH
Nov 25 - 19:11 PHI vs VGK
Nov 25 - 19:11 N.J vs NSH
Nov 25 - 19:11 OTT vs CGY
Nov 25 - 19:11 NYI vs DET
Nov 25 - 20:11 MIN vs WPG
Nov 25 - 22:11 ANA vs SEA
Nov 25 - 22:11 S.J vs L.A

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KENT JOHNSON CBJ
JOSH MANSON COL
AARON EKBLAD FLA
KIEFER SHERWOOD VAN
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
JOSEPH WOLL TOR
JOHN GIBSON ANA
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DAL Players
22.8 TYLER SEGUIN MASON MARCHMENT MATT DUCHENE
22.6 JASON ROBERTSON WYATT JOHNSTON ROOPE HINTZ
16.4 LOGAN STANKOVEN MAVRIK BOURQUE JAMIE BENN

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Regicide

Jeremy and Shams are here to break down all the new injuries and update timelines as well. After all the injury news they close out the show covering all the cold Kings players giving actionable fantasy advice on each one. Lastly, they close out the show the latest hot Russian forward for Columbus that is only 1% rostered on Yahoo right now.

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