November 7, 2014

Dougie Hamilton is breaking out, so is Tarasenko, Roussel could be the next big thing and more…

 

*

 

Don't look now but Steve Mason has won two in a row (his first two of the season) having beaten the Oilers and Panthers in consecutive contests. Impressive stuff, really.

 

Getting serious now, Mason is a bottom-five starter in this league and he's not welcome anywhere near my fantasy team. Do not take this recent streak as excuse to believe.

 

Michael Raffl is out for the next six weeks after blocking a shot. That means the red hot Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek need a new linemate. They went with Chris Vande Velde last night and Giroux and Voracek still managed to score. It might not matter who is the third wheel on that line but this is a lost opportunity for Raffl. Vande Velde shouldn't be fantasy relevant though.

 

It appears that the Flyers have put Vinny Lecavalier's statue back on display having iced him for the past three games. Oh joy!

 

*

 

On the other side this was the first mediocre start by Roberto Luongo (at least as far as the numbers are concerned) in almost a month. Luongo's strong play thus far has been surprising to many but if you've been a regular reader since before the season began, you'd know that we expected Luongo to be very effective, even with the Panthers. His only issue is that the team in front of him can't score.

 

It has been rather surprising how solid a possession team the Panthers have been so far rating in the top half of the league in whatever metric you choose. Combine the solid possession numbers with Luongo's solid goaltending and they've been in most every game they've played. They just cannot score.

 

No team has converted a lower percentage of their even-strength chances than the Panthers. They have had only marginally more luck on the power play, clicking on 15.4% of their opportunities good for 20^th in the league.

 

You could argue that this low conversion percentage is a reason to buy low on Panther players. There is some logic in that. Certainly their 7.2% even-strength shooting percentage last season was better than what they've accomplished so far but not by a bunch and this was a team whose leading scorer finished with 38 points. That's not going to be relevant in many pools.

 

That leading scorer, Nick Bjugstad, scored the lone goal for the Panthers last night, his first of the season. He is off to a dreadful start but if you are rebuilding in a keeper league you should try and use this as an opportunity. He's a keeper with huge upside.

 

*

 

The Oilers played a great road game for 40 minutes, maybe even 45 but at some point during the third period the Bruins flipped a switch and dominated the way you'd expect them to. After getting outshot by two through two periods the Bruins outshot the Oilers 14-6 in the final frame and outscored them 4-1.

 

Dougie Hamilton is really emerging with all the blueline injuries in Boston. He recorded his second three-point game of the season and has eight points in the last six games. Until Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug return he is going to be "the guy" for Boston.

 

Of course, maybe this happens anyway even if those two are around. Hamilton has been skating about as much as he did even with Chara and Hamilton around. In fact, he had Chara as a defense partner, which would absolutely be a positive. And he isn't getting double-shifted on the power play, which Boston notoriously splits up time evenly between its top two units. Basically, his usage has been no different. The Bruins have simply been playing better than they were earlier this season.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this was going to be Hamilton's breakout season regardless. His scoring won't fall when Chara and Krug return. He'll finish with somewhere between 35 and 45 points, which would be a career high. No defenseman is getting to 50 without some real good fortune the way they divvy up the ice-time in Boston but it's nice to see Hamilton is achieving some of his potential.

 

That Patrice Bergeron is some player, I'll tell you. Check out this great individual effort to setup Carl Soderberg:

 

 

Paul Stastny made his return to the Blues lineup but was scoreless and minus-two for the night. His linemates, Alexander Steen and David Backes each had goals but both came on the power play without input from Stastny but you can bet the scoring will come.

 

*

 

Cory Schneider got yanked after the third Blues goal and Keith Kinkaid came on in relief conceding one goal on our shots. Kinkaid wound up on the hook or the loss following the near-comeback by the Devils, his first decision as an NHL goalie. Keep an eye on Kinkaid. Schneider is awesome and definitely a workhorse but if he keeps struggling then maybe Kinkaid sees a few starts and strings together some fantasy value.

 

With two goals last night, Michael Ryder now has nine points through 13 games. You might be tempted to see this as a resurgence for Ryder but I think it's more of a strong blip on the radar. He's been skating mostly with Ryane Clowe and Adam Henrique on the third line and on the second power play unit. That's not necessarily a situation conducive to fantasy success.

 

He was up on the second line last night as the Devils are battling injuries. He skated with Patrik Elias and Dainius Zubrus on the second line. Still not great but he got some top line minutes in crunch time as the Devils chased the tie. We might see Ryder with a bit of a hot streak with both Mike Cammalleri and Henrique out and now Clowe leaving last night's game. Things get really thin up front, which will force the coaches to lean on Ryder further but long term he's far down the depth chart.

 

I know he has just one point in his last five games but I hope you haven't given up on Damon Severson. He is legit and is the #1 guy on the Devils blueline, as least as far as power play time is concerned. He led the team with 3:58 with the man advantage last night. Stick with him.

 

*

 

The Jets and Penguins broke up a perfectly good riot with a hockey game last night. The two teams combined for 98 minutes in penalties but when they weren't trying to punch each other in the face they actually played some entertaining hockey with tremendous chances on both ends.

 

Steve Downie figured very significantly in this one, which should come as little surprise. He didn't technically record a Gordie Howe hat-trick but he did one better. First he sealed the tough stuff with a goal and an assist. Then he went off drawing a 10-minute misconduct getting into it with Dustin Byfuglien and then latter getting a second misconduct as he sat in the penalty box. His line for the night will go down as one of the best you'll see in rotisserie all season:

 

One goal, one assist, plus-three, 22 PIM, two SOG, and three hits. If you've been sitting on Downie in your fantasy league, last night was the night you were waiting for. I wonder how many H2H matchups he swings on his own?

 

I already gave you everything you need to know about Marc-Andre Fleury's new deal in yesterday's ramblings so check that out if haven't. He played very well last night amid the craziness. Here's a very interesting look at how Fleury's consistency has improved under new Penguins goalie coach Mike Bales. He has definitely been a more reliable fantasy asset the last couple of years.

 

*

 

It sure looks as though Evander Kane has found his stride. He certainly had it last night. He recorded an honest-to-goodness Gordie Howe hat-trick and was dangerous throughout the game with six SOG.