Regression coming for Callahan, Nash and Brassard plus some interesting Lundqvist splits and more…

 

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After a quick vacation I'm back for a quiet Monday with just one game on tap. Props to Dobber for going retro and giving you damn near a full week's worth of ramblings. I was checking in from the road. Good stuff. Thanks big man!

 

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Dominant performance by the Lightning who just keep on rolling. Ben Bishop didn't have to do much work for the win stopping 15 of 16 shots. The lone goal he allowed was put in by his own defenseman. Bishop continues to perform like a top-five fantasy goalie.

 

Steven Stamkos led the way for the Lightning with three points in just 15:43 of action. The Lightning have really been rolling their four lines all year showing off their tremendous depth. My initial instinct was to compare it to the way that the Bruins run things but the Bruins also roll their power play units. The Lightning haven't gone that far… yet.

 

But they do have incredible speed and skill up and down the lineup. On any given night any line can go off. Last night it was certainly the Stamkos line and good timing too as Ryan Callahan scored a pair of goals in his return to New York to face the Rangers.

Callahan has an interesting game log this season. He has as many multi-point efforts as he does goose eggs. The sum total is a point-per-game pace that surely won't be sustained. He's currently shooting 16.2%, which is about 5% too high. The multi-point efforts aren't usually a Callahan staple so when those dry up he'll return to a more reasonable pace.

 

It's funny how when a team is winning no one talks much about how the hot shot rookie isn't playing all that much. Jonathan Drouin continues to skate with Vladislav Namestnikov and a rotating third winger (typically Cedric Paquette or Alex Killorn) at evens while also seeing some time with the second power play unit.

 

It does help that Drouin has been reasonably productive in his limited minutes. He has eight points through 13 games. I don't expect much from him if this usage continues though. And considering the depth on this roster there is little reason to push Drouin into a larger role at this point. He'll be fine, just not so hot for the immediate impact we all hoped for.

 

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Just when Henrik Lundqvist was turning the corner last night happens. Prior to the game last night, Lundqvist's November numbers were sitting at 2-1-3 with a 1.60 GAA and .946 Save% through six starts. Five goals on 30 shots later…

 

Lundqvist will be fine though. We all know he's a beauty. Interestingly enough Lundqvists career monthly splits show quite the trend. Check out his month-by-month save percentage throughout his career:

 

October – 0.915

November – 0.924

December – 0.910

January – 0.924

February – 0.924

March – 0.920

April – 0.931

 

For every month but April you are looking at at least a 75-game sample size, which isn't necessarily enough to draw serious conclusions but we've made larger leaps with a lot less in the past. The interesting part isn't the fact that Lundqvist is basically a puck-stopping cyborg for much of the season it's how average he performs in October and December.

 

If this is a real thing and not just random sample noise then Lundqvist owners are headed towards another rocky month. I for one hope that is the case. I'd love nothing more than some terrible mid-season stats for Lundqvist, which I could use to bargain a cheaper price tag for him.

 

Dan Boyle has been unproductive since his return to the Ranger lineup but that's okay because none of the other Ranger defensemen had been doing much in his absence. It's pretty clear that we are all waiting on Ryan McDonagh to return from his own injury before we see consistent scoring from the blue line on this team.

 

And Boyle has been soaking up the big minutes too. He skated 20:06 last night with 3:02 on the power play. I suppose that's not huge for a defenseman but his power play usage has been of the extreme top unit variety. That won't continue when McDonagh returns. Or at least it won't if he continues to squander this opportunity.

 

After a couple of down years for Boyle on some filthy good Sharks teams it might be time we start talking about Dan Boyle the carcass rather than Dan Boyle the fantasy asset but we're still a little early yet. For one, he is still producing SOG at a quality rate of 2.0 per game.

 

Dobber mentioned something about Derick Brassard's production drying up with Derek Stepan back. I don’t remember the specifics so I hate to throw him under the bus but I don’t know that I agree with that sentiment.

 

Brassard notched an assist last night to give him four points in six contests since Stepan's return, which helps my argument so maybe this is just fortunate timing. But I’m looking at how that assist came on a power-play goal. The same power-play goal that Stepan also got an assist on. They are both skating together on the top power play unit along with Boyle (for now), Rick Nash and Martin St. Louis. Meanwhile it's Brassard who has maintained his top line duties with Nash and St. Louis while Stepan skates with Mats Zuccarello and Chris Kreider. I just don't see why there isn't room for both of these guys to eat.

 

Let's be clear, I do agree that Brassard is going to see a market correction but it won't be because of Stepan. No, it'll be because Brassard's shooting percentage needs to regress from 16.7% down closer to his career average of 11.0% and Nash's is already in the process of regression having fallen to 17.9% but still has a ways to go towards his career average of 12.5%.

 

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You could see Olli Maatta return to the Penguin lineup tonight. Not that I'm overly interested in Maatta for fantasy purposes but it's a great human interest story if nothing else. I can't imagine the emotions he must be dealing with.

 

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Lots of buzz about the Wild placing Josh Harding on waivers after activating him from the IR. Most of the buzz was speculation about where he might land. If he does get claimed by anyone, you can bet we'll have a piece discussing the fantasy implications but my guess is Harding clears and heads off to Iowa.

 

I've pretty well written Harding off. Just too star-crossed. There remains a chance he could become relevant. All it would take is an injury to Backstrom for Harding to get called up and that's in the "worst case scenario" where he goes unclaimed. That situation isn't all that unlikely. So yeah, you could make a move to stash Harding if you've got the roster space to spare. I'd just as soon not bother.

 

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Lost in the Harding news was Dallas placing Kevin Connnauton on waivers. Not much fantasy impact here. You could argue that this is the end of the road for Connauton but really, we've seen defensemen take years to finally develop. So in leagues with massive rosters where Connauton can be stashed then you keep stashing him, otherwise, it's off to the waiver wire.

 

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It being Tuesday morning, it's time for our weekly ranking of the top candidates for the Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy. (Weekly disclaimer: "the Schultz" is handed out to the defenseman who records the highest plus/minus total while scoring less than 30 points on the season.) The top candidates are as follows: